Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP’s newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP’s last poll of the race in early October. Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%. Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.
Gingrich’s rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party. With voters over 65 he’s at 37% leading Romney’s 18% and Paul’s 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.
Paul’s benefiting from the lack of action on the Democratic side this year. 20% of likely caucus goers are either Democrats or independents and with them he’s leading the way with 28% to 18% for Gingrich and 13% for Romney and Bachmann. He’s also very strong with younger voters, getting 23% with those under 45 to 21% for Gingrich, 16% for Bachmann, and 15% for Romney.
When PPP polled Iowa for the first time this year in January 57% of voters had a favorable opinion of Romney to 26% with an unfavorable one. Now he’s at only 49/45, representing a 27 point decline in his net favorability over the course of the year.
“Newt Gingrich is well positioned for a victory in Iowa next month,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The question is whether he can make it through the month without imploding the way all the other Republican front runners have.”
PPP surveyed 572 likely Republican caucus voters from December 3rd to 5th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.1%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican caucus
or the Democratic caucus, or are you not sure?
Republican caucus…………………………………..100%
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 0%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 0%
Q2 If the Republican candidates for President
were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick
Perry, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum, who
would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 13%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 27%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 4%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 18%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 9%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 16%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 6%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 7%
Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed to
that candidate, or might you end up supporting
someone else?
Strongly committed to that candidate………….. 55%
Might end up supporting someone else ………. 45%
Q4 Who would be your second choice for
President?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 10%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 17%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 5%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 2%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 10%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 11%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 13%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 9%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 22%
Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Michele Bachmann?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 35%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Herman Cain?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 40%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 62%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Jon Huntsman?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 30%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 26%
Q9 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Ron Paul?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 52%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q10 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Perry?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 44%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 46%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q11 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Mitt Romney?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 49%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 45%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%
Q12 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rick Santorum?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 51%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 21%
Q13 In 2008 did you vote in the Democratic or
Republican caucus, or did you not vote in a
caucus?
Democratic caucus ………………………………….. 11%
Republican caucus…………………………………… 65%
Didn’t vote in a caucus……………………………… 24%
Q14 (Among Republican caucus goers) Did you
vote for Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred
Thompson, John McCain, Ron Paul, Rudy
Giuliani, or someone else in the 2008 caucus,
or do you not remember?
Mike Huckabee ……………………………………….. 27%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Fred Thompson ………………………………………. 9%
John McCain…………………………………………… 19%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rudy Giuliani ………………………………………….. 4%
Someone else…………………………………………. 2%
Don’t remember ………………………………………. 6%
Q15 Which of the following things is most important
to you when deciding how to vote: jobs and the
economy, government spending and reducing
the debt, taxes, social issues like gay marriage
and abortion, illegal immigration, or foreign
policy and national security?
Jobs/economy…………………………………………. 27%
Government spending, reducing the debt ……. 43%
Taxes …………………………………………………….. 4%
Social issues…………………………………………… 9%
Illegal immigration……………………………………. 3%
Foreign policy/national security………………….. 3%
Someone else…………………………………………. 3%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%
Q16 What is more important to you when deciding
who to vote for: a candidate’s ability to beat
Barack Obama in the general election, or their
positions on the issues?
A candidate’s ability to beat Obama……………. 34%
Their issue positions ………………………………… 57%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 9%
Q17 Which of the Republican candidates do you
think has the best chance of defeating Barack
Obama?
Michele Bachmann ………………………………….. 7%
Newt Gingrich …………………………………………. 33%
Jon Huntsman…………………………………………. 3%
Gary Johnson …………………………………………. 1%
Ron Paul ………………………………………………… 9%
Rick Perry ………………………………………………. 7%
Mitt Romney……………………………………………. 23%
Rick Santorum………………………………………… 2%
Someone else/Not sure ……………………………. 14%
Q18 How much attention have you paid to the
televised debates between the candidates so
far: a lot of attention, some attention, or not
much attention at all?
A lot of attention………………………………………. 33%
Some attention………………………………………… 43%
Not much attention at all …………………………… 16%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 8%
Q19 Have you seen any of the candidates speak in
person, and if so, how many?
Have not seen any of the candidates in
person…………………………………………………….61%
Have seen only one candidate…………………… 11%
Have seen more than one candidate ………….. 18%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q20 When deciding who to vote for, how important
is it to you that a candidate has spent a lot of
time in Iowa: very important, somewhat
important, or not important at all?
Very important…………………………………………. 21%
Somewhat important ………………………………… 47%
Not important at all…………………………………… 22%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%
Q21 If a candidate had a history of cheating on their
spouse, would that raise major concerns for
you, some concerns for you, or would it not
concern you at all?
Would raise major concerns ……………………… 34%
Would raise some concerns………………………. 41%
Would not concern you at all……………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 12%
Q22 If a candidate had a history of supporting an
individual mandate for health care would that
raise major concerns for you, some concerns
for you, or would it not concern you at all?
Would raise major concerns ……………………… 42%
Would raise some concerns………………………. 32%
Would not concern you at all……………………… 13%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%
Q23 Do you think people who have immigrated to
the United States illegally but have lived here
25 years, have paid taxes, and have obeyed
the law should be deported or not?
They should be deported ………………………….. 29%
They should not ………………………………………. 44%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 27%
Q24 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of the Mormon faith?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 33%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 25%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 42%
Q25 Will you vote for Mitt Romney in the general
election if he is the Republican nominee, or
not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 52%
No …………………………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 28%
Q26 Will you vote for Newt Gingrich in the general
election if he is the Republican nominee, or
not?
Yes………………………………………………………… 55%
No …………………………………………………………. 21%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 23%
Q27 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 47%
Man……………………………………………………….. 53%
Q28 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 14%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 28%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 36%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 22%
Q29 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 3%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 5%
Moderate………………………………………………… 15%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 37%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 40%
Q30 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 6%
Republican……………………………………………… 80%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 14%
Q31 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes………………………………………………………… 32%
No …………………………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%
