Polls

Akin still leads McCaskill by a point

| Tom Jensen

Header-poll-results
Raleigh, N.C. –
Missouri voters strongly disagree with the comments Todd Akin made about abortion over the weekend, but it hasn’t moved the numbers a whole lot in the Senate race. Akin leads Claire McCaskill by a single point, 44-43. That’s basically identical to our last poll of the contest in late May, which found Akin ahead by a 45-44 spread.

It’s not that Missouri voters are ok with or supportive of Akin’s comments. 75% of voters, including even 64% of Republicans, say they were inappropriate to only 9% who consider them to have been appropriate. 79% of voters say they disagree with what Akin said, including 65% who express ‘strong’ disagreement with him. 51% of GOP voters say they strongly disagree with him.

All of that is taking a toll on Akin’s image. Only 24% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. He’s pretty universally disliked by Democrats (3/85) and independents (21/61) and even with Republicans (43/34) he’s on only narrowly positive ground.

But for all of that the overall numbers in the race have moved very little. When we polled in May McCaskill was getting only 8% of the Republican vote, and even with the controversy around Akin she’s only pushed up to 10% of it. GOP voters dislike McCaskill so much they’re not going to vote for her no matter what their nominee does. Independent voters haven’t moved at all either. In May they supported Akin 45-41, and even though they don’t like him on tonight’s poll we still found him leading 45-41 with them.

“Todd Akin still has a very decent chance at winning the Missouri Senate race,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters were appalled by his comments about abortion, but not so much that they decided to vote Democratic when they were previously planning to support the GOP. This looks like it will be a closely contested race if Akin stays in.”

PPP surveyed 500 likely Missouri voters on the evening of August 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Claire McCaskill’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 41%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 53%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Todd Akin?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 24%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 58%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 18%

Q3 The candidates for Senate this fall are
Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican
Todd Akin. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Claire McCaskill ………………………………………. 43%
Todd Akin……………………………………………….. 44%
Undecided………………………………………………. 13%

Q4 Do you think Todd Akin’s recent comments
over the weekend about rape were appropriate
or inappropriate, or are you not familiar with
what Akin said about rape?
Appropriate …………………………………………….. 9%
Inappropriate…………………………………………… 75%
Not familiar with Akin’s comments………………. 16%

Q5 This past weekend, Todd Akin said that
abortion should be illegal even in the case of
rape, because, “If it’s a legitimate rape, the
female body has ways to try to shut that whole
thing down.” Do you strongly agree, somewhat
agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly
disagree with Akin’s comments?
Strongly agree ………………………………………… 6%
Somewhat agree……………………………………… 12%
Somewhat disagree …………………………………. 14%
Strongly disagree…………………………………….. 65%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 4%

Q6 Generally speaking, do you identify as prochoice
or pro-life on the issue of abortion?
Pro-choice………………………………………………. 40%
Pro-life …………………………………………………… 52%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 7%

Q7 Which of the following statements comes
closest to your position on abortion: it should
be legal in all cases; it should generally be
illegal with exception for rape, incest, or
protection of the mother’s life; or should it be
completely illegal?
Legal in all cases …………………………………….. 33%
Illegal except for rape, incest, or the mother’s
life ………………………………………………………….47%
Completely illegal…………………………………….. 14%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 5%

Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 49%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 44%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 7%

Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 9%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 27%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 29%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 19%

Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 53%
Man……………………………………………………….. 47%

Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 30%
Republican……………………………………………… 39%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 32%

Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.
White …………………………………………………….. 74%
Other……………………………………………………… 26%

Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 12%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 22%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 46%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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