Public Policy Polling

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Wyoming loves its politicians

There isn't a state in the country we've polled that loves its politicians like Wyoming.

Two weeks ago we posted a chart showing approval ratings for all 59 Senators we'd polled on during the second half of 2010. At the top of that list was Minnesota's Amy Klobuchar with a 59/29 approval rating. Both of Wyoming's Senators exceed that, now making them the two most popular Senators we've ever polled on. Tops is John Barrasso with a 69/25 approval breakdown (+44 spread) and not too far behind Mike Enzi whose approval is 63/24 (+39.)

The biggest reason for their eye popping numbers is the partisan lean of the state- Republican Senators ought to be pretty popular in a place where more than 60% of voters are Republicans. But they also both have approval numbers in the mid-30s with Democrats, which is a good deal above average crossover support, and they have good numbers with independents as well.

In addition to having the two most popular Senators we've ever polled on, it also has the most popular Governor, or at least it did until last week. An amazing 71% of voters approve of the job Dave Freudenthal did as Governor to only 18% who disapprove. That puts him ahead of Joe Manchin for first place on that list. Freudenthal's 66% approval rating with Republicans is higher than we've ever found for another Governor in the country overall, with the exception of Manchin. Freudenthal also had 85% approval with Democrats and 69% with independents.

If ever a Democrat could be elected to the US Senate from Wyoming it would probably be Freudenthal. Which means a Democrat might never get elected to the US Senate from Wyoming. Despite his amazing popularity Freudenthal trails Barrasso 56-36 in a hypothetical 2012 Senate contest.

Freudenthal wins 80% of Democrats to Barrasso's 73% of Republicans and pretty much breaks even with independents. That would be a formula for victory for a Democratic candidate in pretty much every other state in the country. But with the party breakdown in Wyoming 64% Republicans and 23% Democrats that's evidently a little bit too much even for him to overcome. Maybe a Democrat with Freudenthal's appeal could be competitive in a Senate race at some point in an open seat situation, but I'd put my money on not seeing a Democratic Senator from Wyoming in my life time.

Newly inaugurated Governor Matt Mead starts out popular with 53% of voters viewing him favorably, 17% unfavorably, and 30% having no opinion. The one politician there's not a lot of hope for in Wyoming is Barack Obama, who 66% of voters disapprove of to only 29% approving. Those are the worst numbers we've found for him in any state.

Full results here

Freudenthal massively popular but trails Barrasso for Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. –Dave Freudenthal has long been one of the most popular governors in the country.  Despite being a Democrat in a state where almost two-thirds of voters are Republicans and where a full two-thirds disapprove of President Obama’s job performance, Freudenthal’s work over his two terms earns the approval of 71% of Wyoming’s voters.  Yet if he were to challenge Senator John Barrasso next year, the state’s overwhelming partisan leanings and the possibility of another vote for the unpopular president’s agenda would make him a serious underdog for higher office.

Freudenthal’s tenure is universally popular, with 85% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans, and 69% of independents looking back fondly on the last eight years.

Rating the New Governors

Over the last month or so we've polled on the favorabilities of seven newly elected Governors across the country. You might expect them all to be pretty popular if they were just elected but there's actually quite a wide range of voter reaction toward them as they begin their terms.

Three- Brian Sandoval in Nevada, Matt Mead in Wyoming, and Rick Snyder in Michigan- go into office incredibly popular. Sandoval's favorability rating is 57% with only 20% having a negative opinion of him and 23% ambivalent. He even has a plurality of Democrats with a favorable opinion of him at 37% to 30% with an unfavorable one.

That's something we don't see very often and it's something to keep in mind as Rory Reid contemplates his political future- certainly he wasn't the best candidate on earth but you can't blame his loss entirely on that- he was running against one of the more appealing candidates across the country last year. Marco Rubio might be the newly elected Hispanic Republican drawing the most national buzz right now but Sandoval is probably the stronger politician at least for now.

Mead in Wyoming is almost as popular with 53% of voters having a favorable opinion of him, 17% an unfavorable one, and 30% without one at this point. In a state where more than 60% of voters are Republicans he wouldn't need particularly good numbers with Democrats to be popular overall, but they do see him positively by a 37/28 margin.

Snyder in Michigan is not quite as popular as his new Republican counterparts in Nevada and Wyoming but still has great numbers overall considering the Democratic leaning state he serves, with 48% of voters seeing him favorably and 26% unfavorably. Snyder is not popular with Democrats but has a pretty remarkable 52/24 breakdown with independents, continuing the unusual level of favor with them that allowed him to win both the primary and general elections by bigger margins than anyone could have anticipated a year ago.

Some of the newly elected Governors- Rick Scott in Florida in particular but also John Kasich in Ohio and Scott Walker in Wisconsin- are not particularly popular though. Scott's the one who's really bad off with only 33% of voters seeing him positively to 43% with an unfavorable opinion. He has very little appeal to Democrats and independents and even within his own party less than half of voters rate him favorably. Although Scott's numbers are bad they are actually slightly better than they were right before the election, indicating that some voters are giving him a second chance as he prepares to take office.

Walker and Kasich both have worse numbers than they did in our polls right before the election. Walker's favorability is a 41/49 spread and Kasich's is 36/40. One key reason for the disparity? We're now polling all registered voters in the states, not just 2010 likely voters as we were the last three months before the election. There was a steep drop in Democratic turnout compared to 2008 in both of those states that was a key part of the Republican victories and those Democrats who didn't vote aren't real big on their new Governors.

Only 12% of Democrats in Ohio have a favorable opinion of Kasich compared to 65% with an unfavorable one. And in Wisconsin just 7% rate Walker favorably to 85% with a negative opinion. They don't have anywhere close to the sort of crossover appeal that folks like Sandoval and Mead do, and as a result they don't go into office particularly popular.

The other new Governor we've polled on- Pennsylvania's Tom Corbett- doesn't really go into either the 'highly popular' or the 'unpopular' category. 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him, 27% have an unfavorable one, and 34% don't have one at all. Republicans like him a lot but in a Democratic state like Pennsylvania that alone won't give you positive favorability numbers. He's above water because there are more Democrats who are ambivalent- 42%- toward him than there are ones- 40%- who have already formed an unfavorable opinion of him. They're at least giving him a chance.