Public Policy Polling

Florida and North Carolina going down to the wire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year.

In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice.

It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday. Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters.

Florida and North Carolina too close to call

PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).

In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.

Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.

Full results here

Obama and Romney still tied in North Carolina

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds the state all tied up for a second week in a row: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are each at 49% and virtually no voters remain undecided.

If Obama ends up pulling out another narrow victory in the state he'll have done it during the early voting period. Among those who report already having voted he's ahead by a 58/41 margin. Romney leads 58/40 with those who haven't voted yet and he'll really need them to turn out if he's going to catch up with Obama.

“The Presidential race in North Carolina is tied up with 6 days to go and undecided voters basically no longer exist,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It all comes down to the ground game now.”

Still tied in North Carolina

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds the state all tied up for a second week in a row: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are each at 49% and virtually no voters remain undecided.

If Obama ends up pulling out another narrow victory in the state he'll have done it during the early voting period. Among those who report already having voted he's ahead by a 58/41 margin. Romney leads 58/40 with those who haven't voted yet and he'll really need them to turn out if he's going to catch up with Obama.

Voters are pretty evenly divided on Obama's job performance with 49% of them giving him good marks to 50% who disapprove. Romney has a narrowly positive favorability rating at 50% to 47% of voters with an unfavorable opinion. North Carolina voters trust Obama more than Romney both on the issue of the economy (50/47) and foreign policy (51/46).

Presidential race all square in North Carolina

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48, representing a small shift in Obama's direction from a week and a half ago when Romney led 49-47. This now makes 27 out of 28 polls of the state PPP has conducted this cycle where the candidates have been within two points of each other.

Obama has built up a lead over the first week of the early voting period in the state. Among those who say they've already voted he's at 57% to 42% for Romney. Romney achieves the overall tie because of a 50/45 advantage among those yet to vote.

Obama's performance in the debate this week may be helping to pull him closer in the state. 50% of voters think he was the winner on Monday night to only 35% who think Romney was victorious, including a 51/21 spread among independents. He and Romney are now effectively tied among independent voters at 46/45, where Romney had a 54/40 advantage with them on our last poll.

Obama and Romney tied in North Carolina

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 48, representing a small shift in Obama's direction from a week and a half ago when Romney led 49-47. This now makes 27 out of 28 polls of the state PPP has conducted this cycle where the candidates have been within two points of each other.

Obama has built up a lead over the first week of the early voting period in the state. Among those who say they've already voted he's at 57% to 42% for Romney. Romney achieves the overall tie because of a 50/45 advantage among those yet to vote.

Obama's performance in the debate this week may be helping to pull him closer in the state. 50% of voters think he was the winner on Monday night to only 35% who think Romney was victorious, including a 51/21 spread among independents. He and Romney are now effectively tied among independent voters at 46/45, where Romney had a 54/40 advantage with them on our last poll.

Obama leads 53/43 among women, 88/11 with African Americans, and 58/40 with young voters. Romney is up 53/42 with men, 61/35 with whites, and 55/42 with seniors.

A key reason Obama remains competitive in North Carolina is that the Democratic base is extremely fired up. That's been reflected in the early voter turnout to date, and we also find that 77% of Democrats say they're 'very excited' to vote in the election this fall compared to 65% of Republicans. Among African Americans 83% say they're 'very excited' to cast their ballots.

Pat McCrory's expanded his lead in the Governor's race to 13 points. He's at 50% to 37% for Walter Dalton and 5% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. McCrory's favorability spread has improved to 53/32. He's up by 23 points with independents, 51/28, and he's winning over 22% of Democrats compared to Dalton's 6% of Republicans. Dalton does have a 49/44 lead among those who have already voted.

Stable lead for McCrory in NC governor race

Raleigh, N.C.-- Republican Pat McCrory’s lead over Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton remains basically unchanged at 7 points since PPP last tested the race in July. While the favorability ratings for both candidates have ticked down in the past month, signaling the arrival of general election season, voters have shown little movement between the two major party candidates and Libertarian Barbara Howe.

McCrory has lost 3 points on his net favorability rating, bringing him to +7 at 41% favorable  to 34% unfavorable. However, this negative change comes entirely from Democratic voters, 10% of whom have slipped from the “not sure” category to unfavorable since July. In fact, this decline among McCrory’s partisan opponents is answered by a 10 point increase in favorability with independents.

McCrory continues to lead

PPP's newest poll on the race for Governor in North Carolina finds...basically the same thing as the last three polls. Pat McCrory holds a 7 point lead over Walter Dalton, 45-38, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 7%. McCrory's lead has been 6-7 points in all four surveys PPP has conducted since Dalton won the Democratic nomination.

McCrory continues to lead for two main reasons. He's up by double digits with independents, 46-32. And he's benefiting from a considerably more unified party base. 79% of Republicans say that they're going to vote for him, while only 64% of Democrats are committed to Dalton at this point.

The negativity of the campaign seems to be taking a toll on the image of both candidates. McCrory's net favorability has dropped from +10 last month to now +7 with 41% of voters rating him favorably and 34% holding a negative opinion. Dalton's declined by 6 points from -1 to -7 with 24% of voters rating him favorably and 31% with a negative opinion.

The Republican strength at the top of the ticket looks to be making the other statewide offices more competitive than usual this year as well. The race for Lieutenant Governor is effectively tied, with Republican Dan Forest leading Democrat Linda Coleman 38-37.

N.C. gubernatorial race tightening

Raleigh, N.C. – After his victory in the Democratic primary last week, gubernatorial nominee Walter Dalton is beginning to close the gap with Republican favorite Pat McCrory.

McCrory, who similarly secured his party’s nomination last Tuesday, holds a 46-40 advantage over Dalton after leading 50-35 in the first poll conducted between them in late January.

The shift in Dalton’s favor can be attributed to an improvement in his favorability. The Democratic gubernatorial nominee is viewed as favorable by 28% of voters, up from 17% in January.

McCrory lead down to 6

The race for Governor of North Carolina has tightened up a good deal over the last three months with Pat McCrory now leading Walter Dalton by only 6 points, 46-40. When PPP first polled that match up, in late January, McCrory's advantage was 15 points at 50-35.

Dalton has both increased his name recognition and become better liked by North Carolinians over the course of his primary campaign. 54% of voters are familiar with him, compared to 42% in January. And his net favorability is +2 at 28/26, up a net 10 points from -8 at 17/25 when he first launched his campaign.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state with a +13 (41/28) favorability rating. He is very strong with independents, leading Dalton 52-29. He's also benefiting from a more unified party, with 84% of Republicans behind him compared to only 68% of Democrats who are backing Dalton.

Although I certainly think McCrory remains the favorite there's reason to believe this will end up being a pretty closely contested race. The 13% of voters who are undecided for Governor support Barack Obama 57-28 for President over Mitt Romney. If those folks ended up supporting the same party for President as for Governor, McCrory's lead would only be 51-49. Dalton is under performing right now with key Democratic constituencies like African Americans and young voters but history suggests those people will end up breaking in his direction and if they do it will be a very close race. He has more room for growth than McCrory does.