Public Policy Polling

Hagan leads all potential challengers

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of North Carolina voters finds a tight, though slightly Democratic-leaning, Senate race brewing for 2014. Senator Kay Hagan, who has a 41% approval rating compared to 42% who disapprove, is leading all likely Republican challengers by margins of 4%-9%. However, she has failed to secure 50% of the vote in any of the hypothetical races, showing this race could get even tighter.

Within the Republican Party, a clear consensus has not yet formed on who should represent them in the Senate race, with the plurality of respondents (27%) saying they were undecided or favored a candidate not listed. Representative Virginia Foxx currently has a clear lead over the rest of the field, taking in 23% of the vote, a good bit above the next most popular contender, State Senator Phil Berger, who received 11%. NC Speaker of the House Thom Tillis and US Representative Renee Ellmers tied for third with 9% of the vote each. The rest of the candidates were, in order, Jim Cain (8%), Greg Brannon (7%), Mark Harris (4%), and Lynn Wheeler (3%).

Foxx leads NC Republican wish list

Thom Tillis may now officially be in the US Senate race, but Republican voters in North Carolina are still shopping for another candidate. Only 9% say Tillis would be their first choice, which puts him in a tie for third with Renee Ellmers among candidates considering the race.

The first choice of GOP voters by a wide margin is Virginia Foxx who's at 23%,giving her a 12 point edge on runner up Phil Berger at 11%. Rounding out the field after Tillis and Ellmers are Jim Cain at 8%, Greg Brannon at 7%, Mark Harris at 4%, and Lynn Wheeler at 3%.

Foxx's early lead is being driven by the right wing of the Republican Party. Among voters identifying themselves as 'very conservative,' she's at 32% with Ellmers next at 12%. But even with moderates Foxx leads the way at 23% to 11% for Cain. Foxx also has the strongest geographic base of any of the candidates, polling at 55% in the Triad while no one else gets over 25% in their home base.

Voters continue to be closely divided in their feelings about Kay Hagan- 41% approve of her to 42% who disapprove. But with Cherie Berry, who had been the strongest Republican candidate in polling, out of the race Hagan is now back to leading the entire GOP field in head to head match ups.

Peters leads potential GOP foes by 5-20 points

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's first look at the Michigan Senate race since Carl Levin's retirement announcement finds Democrat Gary Peters as the early front runner, leading 8 different potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.

The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best known person considering the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.

Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him it's Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31 respectively, Kimberly Small who's 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point deficit at 44/24.

Peters leads GOP field in Michigan

PPP's first look at the Michigan Senate race since Carl Levin's retirement announcement finds Democrat Gary Peters as the early front runner, leading 8 different potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 5 to 20 points.

The strongest potential Republican candidate at this point is former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, who announced her candidacy this week. She trails Peters by 5 points at 41/36. Land is the best known person considering the race too, although she still has just 50% name recognition.

Mike Rogers does the next best against Peters, trailing 42/32. After him it's Justin Amash and Dave Camp who each trail by 12 points at 42/30 and 43/31 respectively, Kimberly Small who's 16 points back at 42/26, Roger Kahn and Rob Steele who are each down 18 at 44/26, and Saul Anuzis who has a 20 point deficit at 44/24.

Peters' strength in these early match ups has less to do with him than it does the general Democratic lean of the state in national elections. At this point only 34% of voters know enough about Peters to have formed an opinion of him, with those assessments coming in slightly positive at 18/16. The Republican field is a blur to voters too though- after Land the best known is Rogers with 35% name recognition, followed by Camp at 31%, Amash at 30%, Anuzis at 18%, Small and Steele at 17%, and Kahn at 16%. This simply isn't a very high profile field of potential candidates.

Warner solid for re-election

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest Virginia poll finds Barack Obama with a 49% positive to 48% negative job approval rating in the Commonwealth. Senator Mark Warner’s job performance gets positive ratings by 53%-27%. Senator Tim Kaine enjoys a 44%-38% positive spread. Bob McDonnell has 44% positive marks and negative ratings of 37%.

Virginians have favorable opinions of Bill Bolling by a margin of 22%-20%. Eric Cantor elicits unfavorable opinions from 40% of voters and favorable views from 26%. Mark Warner leads Bolling 54%-33% in the former’s reelection race. Warner tops Cantor by 53%-34%. Bob McDonnell trails Warner 39%-50%.

Warner safe for reelection

Mark Warner continues to be by far and away Virginia's most popular politician, and doesn't look like he would face much trouble for reelection regardless of who the Republicans put up next year.

53% of Virginians approve of the job Warner is doing to only 27% who disapprove. He's at 58/25 with independents, and has 26% crossover approval from Republicans. He would have an 11 point lead in a hypothetical match up with Bob McDonnell, 50/39. He would also lead Eric Cantor by 19 points at 53/34 and Bill Bolling by 21 points at 54/33. Cantor continues to be unpopular statewide, with only 26% of voters rating him favorably to 40% who have a negative opinion.

Other findings from Virginia:

Foxx, Berry lead Republican wish list for NC Senate race

Raleigh, N.C.-PPP’s monthly North Carolina Senate poll finds Kay Hagan leading or tying all potential challengers. For the first time, Cherie Berry ties Hagan at 45%. Hagan leads Phil Berger 46%-42%. The Senator comes in ahead of Greg Brannon 49%-40% and Jim Cain 48%-41%. Hagan bests Virginia Foxx 49%-42%. She leads Mark Harris 46%-40%. Hagan beats out Lynn Wheeler by a 48%-37% margin. The very-likely candidates Thom Tillis and Renee Ellmers each trail Hagan, at 48%-41% and 48%-39%, respectively.

Virginia Foxx holds a slight lead in the contest for the Republican nomination. 15% of Republican primary voters support her, to Cherie Berry’s 14%. Renee Ellmers also makes it into double digits, at 10%. The Ron Paul-style libertarian Brannon garners the support of 7% of Republicans. Jim Cain gets 4% of the vote, and Lynn Wheeler wins 3%. Thom Tillis’s self-promotion continues not to yield results. With 6% of the vote, the state House Speaker finishes third-worst.

Foxx back at the top for NC Republicans

PPP's monthly look at next year's race for the US Senate in North Carolina finds Virginia Foxx back at the top of the Republican wish list for their candidate. 15% say she's their pick to 14% for Cherie Berry, 10% each for Phil Berger and Renee Ellmers, 7% for Greg Brannon, 6% for Thom Tillis, 4% for Jim Cain, and 3% each for Mark Harris and Lynn Wheeler.

Foxx also has the highest net favorability of the potential GOP contenders with Republican primary voters at +15 (34/19). Others with positive numbers are Berry at +10 (31/21), Ellmers at +8 (23/15), and Tillis at +3 (21/18). Foxx leads the GOP field based on her strength with conservatives and voters in the Triad, while Berry does well with moderates and young Republicans.

For the first time in our polling of the 2014 Senate race Kay Hagan doesn't lead all of her challengers. Berry pulls even with her at 45%, owing in large part to a 56/36 advantage with independents.  She has a +9 net favorability rating at 29/20 and pulls off the unusual feat of being viewed positively by Republicans (33/22), Democrats (29/19), and independents (25/21) alike.

Hagan does, however, still have leads ranging from 4 to 11 points against the rest of the potential GOP field of candidates. She's up 4 on Phil Berger at 46/42, 6 on Mark Harris at 46/40, 7 on Jim Cain, Thom Tillis, and Virginia Foxx at 48/41, 48/41, and 49/42 respectively, 9 on Renee Ellmers at 48/39, and 11 on Lynn Wheeler at 48/37. Hagan's approval this month comes in at 46/40 and she continues to look like a favorite for reelection overall.

Other notes from North Carolina:

Franken in solid position for reelection

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s new survey of Minnesota voters finds Al Franken comfortably leading all potential challengers. Franken leads Michele Bachmann 55% to 38%. He leads Jason Lewis by 54% to 37%. Franken bests Republican Mike McFadden 51%-36%. He leads Julianne Ortman 52%-35%. Julie Rosen trails Franken 36%-52%. Rounding out the bunch, Rich Stanek faces a 36%-51% deficit against the Senator.

Franken himself is popular, with a 51% approval rating to 42% disapproval. Bachmann is deeply unpopular, at 34% favorable, 60% unfavorable and 7% not sure. Lewis has an 18% positive rating and 19% negative rating; 63% were undecided. McFadden garners positive views from 4%, negative ones from 10% and none from 85%. Julianne Ortman also has a 4% favorability rating, but her positive number comes with a 15% negative rating.  Rosen garners a 9%-13% spread with 79% expressing no opinion. Rich Stanek stands at 11% positive and 14% negative. 75% have no opinion of him.

Franken favored for reelection

PPP's newest Minnesota poll finds Al Franken in good shape for reelection. 51% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. That +9 net approval rating is actually 6 points better than Barack Obama's in the state. The President gets 50% approval from voters in the state to 47% who disapprove of him.

Franken starts out with large leads against his potential opponents for reelection next year. He's up 15 on Mike McFadden and Rich Stanek at 51/36, 16 on Julie Rosen at 52/36, and 17 on Julianne Ortman and Jason Lewis at 52/35 and 54/37 respectively. On the off chance Michele Bachmann decided to make a statewide run Franken would have a 55/38 lead. Her statewide favorability rating is just 34%, with 60% of voters holding a negative opinion of her.

Part of the reason for Franken's early leads is his own popularity, but it's also partly because the potential Republican candidates are basically a blank slate to Minnesota voters. Lewis has 37% name recognition, Stanek 25%, Rosen 22%, Ortman 19%, and McFadden 14%. Because of the low profile of the potential GOP candidates they do have a good amount of room to grow against Franken, although he's certainly a clear favorite at any rate.

Other findings from Minnesota: