Public Policy Polling

Obama leads by 6 points in Colorado, 4 in Nevada

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25 points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.

In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent voters, 59/34. He's down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under 45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic for a long time to come. Obama's actually running slightly ahead with white voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics it fuels his overall 6 point lead.

In Nevada Obama's going into election day with a large lead. We find that among early voters he's up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to vote tomorrow but he'd need a much wider margin than that given that most of the state has already voted. Obama's leading based on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).

Obama leads in CO, NV

PPP's final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25 points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.

In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent voters, 59/34. He's down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under 45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic for a long time to come. Obama's actually running slightly ahead with white voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics it fuels his overall 6 point lead.

In Nevada Obama's going into election day with a large lead. We find that among early voters he's up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to vote tomorrow but he'd need a much wider margin than that given that most of the state has already voted. Obama's leading based on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).

The greater intrigue in Nevada will be the Senate race where we find Dean Heller leading Shelley Berkley 48/46 with Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek at 4%. VanderBeek seems to mostly be pulling from Berkley- his supporters are voting for Obama by a 56/27 margin. Heller needs those folks to follow through on voting third party to hold on to his small advantage.

There is one good sign in the poll for Berkley that speaks to the potential for an upset. Among early voters she's leading 52/44, running only three points behind Obama's 55/44 standing. If she can somehow continue to only run 3 points behind him among election day voters there's a good chance he could pull her across the finish line assuming that he does indeed end up taking the state by a margin of 4 points or more.

If Berkley wins it's definitely going to be the Democratic lean of the state that does it for her. She is very unpopular with only 39% of voters viewing her favorably to 55% with a negative opinion. By contrast Heller's approval rating is 47/42.

Finally, Colorado is set to legalize marijuana tomorrow. 52% of voters support the amendment to do so, compared to 44% who are opposed.

Full results here

Florida and North Carolina going down to the wire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year.

In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice.

It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday. Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters.

Florida and North Carolina too close to call

PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year. In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday.

PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice. There is a massive generational gap in the state with Romney leading 61/38 among seniors while Obama leads within every other age group. The Paul Ryan selection didn't hurt Romney with Florida seniors as some had thought it might. Obama's up 52/47 with women, 53/47 with Hispanics, and 91/9 with African Americans while Romney has a 53/47 edge with men and a 59/40 one with white voters.

Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters. Beyond that the race pretty much breaks down as you would expect. Obama is up with women (54/46), African Americans (87/12), and young voters (55/42). Romney is winning with men (54/44), whites (62/37), and seniors (58/41).

In the Florida Senate race Bill Nelson is in good position to be reelected, leading Republican foe Connie Mack IV 51/46. Nelson's lead has bounced around in the 4-7 point range in our polling over the last few weeks. Floridians narrowly approve of the job he's doing, 44/41. They don't care for Mack, with 38% rating him favorably and 43% holding an unfavorable opinion. Nelson's up 56/40 with independents.

Pat McCrory continues to be favored in the North Carolina Governor's race, although the contest has tightened in the closing stretch. He's at 50% to 43% for Walter Dalton and 4% for Libertarian Barbara Howe. Dalton's moving closer because he's gone from 62% of the Democratic vote to 73% in the last week. Still McCrory's 58/29 advantage with independents and the fact that he's winning 21% of Democrats puts him in a very strong position. Outgoing Governor Bev Perdue's approval rating is 31% with 54% of voters disapproving of her and those numbers don't create a positive climate for electing another Democratic Governor- not a lot Dalton could do about that. The contest for Lieutenant Governor in North Carolina continues to be a dead heat with Republican Dan Forest at 45% to 44% for Democrat Linda Coleman.

Full results here

Obama leads by 4 points in Virginia, 5 points in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

Obama leads in Ohio and Virginia

PPP's final polls in Ohio and Virginia find Barack Obama ahead in both states, 52/47 in Ohio and 51/47 in Virginia. PPP has conducted four polls in each of these states over the last three weeks and has found an average lead of 3.75 points for Obama in Ohio and an average advantage of 3.5 points for him in Virginia.

In Ohio Obama's already built up a large lead during the early voting period. He's up 60/39 with those who already cast their ballots. Romney's ahead 51/48 with people who plan to vote on election day but he's going to need a much wider margin than that to take the state.

Obama's winning thanks to leads of 54/44 with women, 86/11 with African Americans, and 61/33 with voters under 30. And although he trails Romney with independents (49/47) and white voters (51/47), he's holding Romney to margins well below what he would need to win those groups.

It's a similar story in Virginia. Obama's up 56/43 with women and 92/8 with African Americans and he's holding Romney to a 58/40 advantage with whites, which is below what we've generally been finding for him nationally recently. When you combine Obama's relative strength among white voters with Virginia being one of the more racially diverse states in the country it's the formula for a lead.

Democrats are also well positioned to win the US Senate races in each of these states. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 52/46 in Virginia's open seat race and Sherrod Brown's up 54/44 for reelection against Josh Mandel. It's a similar story in both states. Voters like the Democratic candidates- Brown has a 48/43 approval rating and Kaine has a 50/40 favorability rating. And they don't much care for the Republican contenders- Mandel's favorability is 36/50 and Allen's is 42/48.

There is one piece of good news for Republicans in these polls- Ohio's proposed independent redistricting commission is headed for defeat with 39% of voters planning to support it compared to 49% who are opposed.

Full results here

Tester leads MT Senate race, Flake up in AZ, Romney by 7

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

Tester, Flake lead Senate races, Romney up 7 in both AZ and MT

PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana. In Arizona he's up 69/30 with Hispanics, but that's not enough to make up for a 61/39 deficit with white voters. In Montana Obama would have to win independents to make up for the Republican lean of the state, but he's losing 51/43 with them.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

Just like in the Missouri Senate contest the Libertarian candidate is worth keeping an eye on here. Dan Cox is pulling 4% and the fact that his voters support Romney 56-11 suggests that he's pulling almost of them from Rehberg. Cox's support has already dropped from 7% three weeks ago, and Tester needs for it to not drop much further.

Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43. What's happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has unified around Jeff Flake. He's gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with independents, Flake's cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago.

Attacks on Carmona have taken a toll- his net favorability has dropped 11 points from +8 at 35/27 to -3 at 40/43. He leads 70/26 with Hispanics but that's not enough to make up for his 59/39 deficit with white voters.

McCaskill up narrowly, Romney and Nixon by wider margins

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

McCaskill leads by 4, Romney and Nixon up comfortably

PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

Akin's chances at pulling off an upset comeback victory may depend on whether Dine really gets 6% at the polls on Tuesday. His voters support Mitt Romney 70/25 over Barack Obama and Dave Spence 61/34 over Jay Nixon, so clearly he's pulling from folks who otherwise would have voted Republican. The Dine voters hate Akin- only 12% see him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion. But they hate McCaskill too- only 8% approve of the job she's doing to 67% who disapprove. If they stay with Dine, McCaskill wins. If they decide the desire for a Republican Senate outweighs their disgust for Akin, then Akin has a chance.

This race has one of the biggest gender gaps we've seen all year, with McCaskill leading 55/38 among women while Akin has a 52/38 lead with men. McCaskill's lead is largely built on the fact that 91% of Democrats support her while only 79% of Republicans support Akin. Akin is up 51/43 with whites, while McCaskill leads 90/6 with African Americans.