Public Policy Polling

Obama leads by 3 in Wisconsin, 6 in Pennsylvania

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

Obama leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin find Barack Obama favored to win both states, although by margins a good deal closer than he won them by in 2008. In Pennsylvania Obama leads 52-46, while in Wisconsin his advantage is 51-48.

The same basic formula that pushed Obama to victory in 2008 is what has him favored to win both of these states again. In Pennsylvania he's up big with women (57/42), African Americans (90/8), and voters under 30 (66/34). It's a similar story in Wisconsin where he's up 54/44 with women, 63/32 with non-white voters, and 55/45 with young people. Obama also has an advantage in both states with independent voters- it's 49/45 in Pennsylvania and 57/40 in Wisconsin.

Democrats are also favored to hold on to the Senate seats in both of these states. In Wisconsin's open contest Tammy Baldwin leads Republican foe Tommy Thompson 51-48, thanks to a 55/41 advantage with independents. Voters aren't particularly in love with either candidate. Thompson has a 44/48 favorability rating and Baldwin's is 44/50. But it looks like the Democratic lean of the state might put her over the top.

In Pennsylvania incumbent Bob Casey leads challenger Tom Smith 52-44, aided by 15% crossover support from Republicans and a 49/41 advantage with independents. Casey's approval is back in positive territory at 42/41 after being in the red on several recent polls and despite the millions Smith has put into the race voters still aren't that enamored with him- he has a 38% favorability rating with 40% of voters giving him negative marks.

Full results here

Democrats lead Senate races in Virginia and Wisconsin

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's new Virginia and Wisconsin Senate polls find the Democratic candidates in position to hold onto both of these open seats in next month's election.

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

Dems lead Senate races in VA, WI

PPP's new Virginia and Wisconsin Senate polls find the Democratic candidates in position to hold onto both of these open seats in next month's election.

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

Three weeks ago Allen's favorability was 41/41 and now it's 44/45, not a particularly significant shift. The movement towards Kaine has more to do with voters warming up to him. 50% see him favorably now to 41% with a negative opinion, up from a 42/44 spread on our last poll. Kaine's in the driver's seat heading into the last month of this race.

The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.

Baldwin leads Wisconsin Senate race by 4

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a 49-45 margin. That represents a nine point reversal from a month ago when Thompson led 49-44.

Baldwin's image has improved a little bit in the last month with her favorability rating improving from 40% to 44%. Her unfavorable number has remained steady at 45%. But the bigger reason for the shift is that Thompson's image has taken a major hit. Last month he had a net +3 favorability rating with 46% of voters rating him positively to 43% with a negative opinion. He's dropped a net 11 points since that time and now just 42% see him positively to 50% with an unfavorable view.

Baldwin's turned a small deficit with independents last month (45-42) into a slight advantage with them this month (46-44). And she's more than doubled her share of the Republican vote from 4% to 10%.

Baldwin leads Thompson by 4

-PPP's newest poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a 49-45 margin. That represents a nine point reversal from a month ago when Thompson led 49-44.

Baldwin's image has improved a little bit in the last month with her favorability rating improving from 40% to 44%. Her unfavorable number has remained steady at 45%. But the bigger reason for the shift is that Thompson's image has taken a major hit. Last month he had a net +3 favorability rating with 46% of voters rating him positively to 43% with a negative opinion. He's dropped a net 11 points since that time and now just 42% see him positively to 50% with an unfavorable view.

Baldwin's turned a small deficit with independents last month (45-42) into a slight advantage with them this month (46-44). And she's more than doubled her share of the Republican vote from 4% to 10%.

By a 47/43 margin voters say they want Democrats to have control of the US Senate and the actual Baldwin/Thompson numbers are tracking that pretty closely.

-Things are increasingly looking bad for Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, but Scott Walker just continues to roll along. He has a 50/46 approval rating and leads a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 50/44 margin, numbers very similar to what happened in June's recall election. The problems other key Republicans are having in the state aren't rubbing off on Walker. Wisconsin voters continue to be very closely divided at the state level- 46% say they plan to vote for Democratic legislative candidates this fall to 44% who prefer Republicans.

Thompson starts with five-point lead over Baldwin

Raleigh, N.C. – Tommy Thompson has emerged from his hard-fought and somewhat surprising primary victory with a five-point lead over Democratic nominee Tammy Baldwin (49-44).  When PPP last polled the potential Senate match-up in early July, the two were tied at 45%.

In the last month and a half, Baldwin’s personal numbers have gotten a bit worse.  37% saw her favorably and 39% unfavorably in the last poll; the spread is now 40-45.  Democrats have rallied around her, but Republicans even more against her.  For Thompson, the trend has been the opposite.  His numbers are up from 40-47 to 46-43 thanks to a huge boost from his base.

To go along with that, Thompson now leads 93-4 with Republican voters, up from 84-7 before the primary.  Baldwin’s near-lock on her base has not changed (88-7).  Independents have moved a hair from a 43-all tie to a 45-42 Thompson edge.

Wisconsin Miscellany

PPP's newest poll on the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tommy Thompson getting a bounce following his win in the Republican primary last week. He now leads Tammy Baldwin 49-44. Our last poll in early July had found them tied at 45%.

The main thing that's changed over the last six weeks is GOP voters getting on the same page. Thompson now leads by 89 points with Republicans, 93-4. Previously he had just a 77 point lead with them at 84-7. Clearly there are no lingering party unity issues despite Thompson's relatively low winning percentage in the primary. Thompson also leads by 3 points with independents, 45-42, after trailing 44-36 with them a month ago.

Thompson's net favorability has improved 10 points from last month. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 43% with a negative one after the spread was previously 40/47. Most of that shift is a product of party unification after the primary- he's gone from 60/26 to 80/12 with Republicans. Baldwin has a narrowly negative favorability rating with 40% of voters rating her positively to 45% with an unfavorable opinion.

45% of Wisconsin voters say they want Republicans to have control of the US Senate to 44% for Democrats, so Thompson may be running a little bit ahead of a generic GOP candidate but this isn't a situation like Massachusetts where if Democrats can sufficiently nationalize the election Baldwin's position will improve significantly.

Baldwin's sexuality doesn't seem to be too much of an issue in the race. 64% of voters say they're open to supporting a gay candidate for office to only 23% who say they are not. Democrats (82/10) and independents (71/16) are overwhelmingly fine with supporting gay candidates. A plurality of Republicans (44%) say they aren't open to ever voting for a gay candidate to 39% who are, but those folks wouldn't likely be voting for Baldwin this year anyway.