Public Policy Polling

Branstad leads for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Iowa voters are pretty evenly divided on Terry Branstad's job performance as Governor. 45% of them approve of the job he's doing and 44% disapprove. But Branstad would nevertheless start out as a pretty substantial favorite against most of the Democrats being mentioned as possible candidates next year.

In a rematch of his 2010 contest with Chet Culver, Branstad would start out ahead 50/40. Culver continues to be relatively unpopular in the state with 34% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 46% with a negative one. Branstad's up 53/28 with independents and his overall 10 point lead is similar to the margin he won by last time. Branstad also has double digit leads over another pair of Democrats who have expressed interest in running: it's 48/33 over State Senator Jack Hatch and 47/31 over State Party chair Tyler Olson.

Branstad favored for reelection

Iowa voters are pretty evenly divided on Terry Branstad's job performance as Governor. 45% of them approve of the job he's doing and 44% disapprove. But Branstad would nevertheless start out as a pretty substantial favorite against most of the Democrats being mentioned as possible candidates next year.

In a rematch of his 2010 contest with Chet Culver, Branstad would start out ahead 50/40. Culver continues to be relatively unpopular in the state with 34% of voters holding a positive opinion of him to 46% with a negative one. Branstad's up 53/28 with independents and his overall 10 point lead is similar to the margin he won by last time. Branstad also has double digit leads over another pair of Democrats who have expressed interest in running: it's 48/33 over State Senator Jack Hatch and 47/31 over State Party chair Tyler Olson.

3 other Democrats we tested come closer to Branstad, but none of them seem like particularly likely candidates. If Tom Vilsack wanted to make a return to his former office, he would trail Branstad only 47/46. Bruce Braley, who seems much more likely to be a Senate candidate, trails 47/41. And Dave Loebsack would be at a 48/38 deficit.

Other findings from Iowa:

Obama leads by 2 points in Iowa and New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the 2012 election cycle in Iowa and New Hampshire find Barack Obama with identical 50-48 leads. These small advantages for Obama are consistent with what PPP's found since the first Presidential debate- 5 Iowa polls have produced an average Obama lead of 1.8 points and 3 New Hampshire polls have produced an average Obama lead of a single point.

In Iowa Obama's already built up a large lead among people who participated in the early voting period, 61/39. Romney's up 56/41 with people planning to cast their ballots on election day but he'll need to win by an even wider margin than that if he's going to take the state.

Obama's leading in Iowa thanks particularly to strong support from independents (51/43) and women (52/46). He trails 53/45 with seniors but is winning with every other age group.

Romney leads by 1 in Iowa and New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September. Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney leads by 1 point in Iowa and New Hampshire

PPP's newest polls in Iowa and New Hampshire find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 49-48 in both states. That represents a big decline for Obama compared to last month. Obama had previously led 51-44 in Iowa and 51-43.5 in New Hampshire on polls conducted the final week of September.

Mitt Romney's seen a big improvement in his image in both states. In Iowa his net favorability has improved 16 points from a -15 spread at 40/55 on our last poll to now 48/47. He's seen a 10 point ascent on that front in New Hampshire from -5 at 45/50 when we last looked at his favorability in August to now 51/46. Obama's approval numbers have declined. He was at 49/48 the last time we polled each of these states, but now he's dropped to 46/50 in Iowa and 47/51 in New Hampshire.

Romney has a big advantage on the economy in both of these states that seems to be driving his lead. In New Hampshire voters prefer Romney 52/45 on that front and in Iowa it's 49/45. Voters are closely divided between the two candidates on the issue of Libya, favoring Romney 47/46 in New Hampshire and 46/44 in Iowa. Obama does have a wide lead on women's issues in both states, 56/39 in New Hampshire and 49/44 in Iowa.

Obama's decline in these states  is particularly large compared to his national drop over the last month, but it's a reflection of the demographics in them. Obama has fallen much further with white voters than African Americans or Hispanics and in states like Iowa and New Hampshire where almost the entire population is white it stands to reason that he would have a bigger decline.

Voters in both Iowa (45/36) and New Hampshire (46/38) do think that Obama won the debate on Tuesday night. But unlike Romney's win in the first debate this one doesn't seem to be moving the needle too much.

State specific notes from Iowa:

Branstad improves in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – New/old Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad’s job approval numbers have rebounded significantly in just over a month since PPP last polled the state.  45% approved and 43% disapproved in mid-July.  Now the spread is 49-37.  And if Branstad were to face re-election today, he would defeat a generic Democratic opponent by the same margin.  He won by a similar 10 points in the Republican wave two years ago.  Matched against actual Democrats in May, Branstad was up by no more than four points and trailed his successor Tom Vilsack by three, but that was when his approval numbers were 12 points worse.

Long-time (though still junior) Sen. Tom Harkin has also seen his numbers rise a bit, from 42-41 to 44-38, but at this point, he would face a much closer contest against an unnamed opponent than Branstad would.  Harkin leads the generic ballot 45-43.  He won with 63% of the vote in 2008 against a nominal opponent, and led even Branstad by five points in a hypothetical match-up in May.

Iowa Miscellany

-Terry Branstad has the best approval numbers this month that we've found for him since he took office. 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 37% who disapprove. He leads a generic Democratic opponent in a head to head match up by an identical 49-37 spread. Who knows what the political climate will look like in 2014, but at least for now he'd be in good shape if he was up for reelection.

-Tom Harkin got a pretty easy ride to reelection in 2008 but if he runs for another term in 2014 it has the potential to be a strong Republican pick up opportunity. Harkin's approval numbers aren't terrible- 44% of voters approve of him to 38% who disapprove. But against a generic Republican foe he leads only 45-43. Given those numbers the GOP ought to be able to recruit a pretty strong candidate next time.

-Charles Grassley continues to be Iowa's most popular politician with 54% of voters approving of him to 30% who disapprove. He's at 49/31 with independents and even has crossover appeal to 29% of Democrats.

Tough month for Dems in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – Things have just generally soured for Democrats in Iowa over the last two months.  PPP showed President Obama in a considerably worse position last week than the last time the state was polled in May.  Now Senator Tom Harkin has seen his approval rating slip, and Republicans have taken a lead in the generic state legislative ballot.

Voters break even on Harkin.  42% approve and 41% disapprove of his job performance.  Those figures are not as bad as a lot of politicians are facing in this political climate, but they are down five points on the margin from 45-39 in the previous survey.  His decline has come with voters of both parties and with independents.  Senior colleague Chuck Grassley remains in an almost identical position as last month (50-34).

Iowa miscellaneous

Things have just generally soured for Democrats in Iowa over the last two months.  We showed President Obama in a considerably worse position last week than the last time the state was polled in May.  Now Senator Tom Harkin has seen his approval rating slip, and Republicans have taken a lead in the generic state legislative ballot.

Voters break even on Harkin.  42% approve and 41% disapprove of his job performance.  Those figures are not as bad as a lot of politicians are facing in this political climate, but they are down five points on the margin from 45-39 in the previous survey.  His decline has come with voters of both parties and with independents.  Senior colleague Chuck Grassley remains in an almost identical position as last month (50-34).

44% now favor the unnamed Republican legislative candidate in their district, with 42% opting for the Democrat.  This is a close margin, but Democrats were preferred by five points (44-39) in May.  Democrats have slipped a few points with their own party’s voters, but most of the switch has come from Republicans taking 13 points of previously undecided independents.

Support for gay marriage increasing in IA

Raleigh, N.C. – As we're finding in our polling across the country right now voters in Iowa are moving more and more in support of gay marriage to the point where they're now almost evenly divided on the issue. 44% of voters think it should be legal, while 45% believe it should be illegal. That represents a six point shift on the margin from when we polled the state in October and found 41% of voters supportive and 48% opposed.

Gay marriage has been legal for a few years in Iowa now and 62% of voters say that it's had no impact on their lives one way or the other. 24% claim it's had a negative effect while 14% say it's a positive thing. We've never found a very significant portion of voters in a state that has gay marriage say it's had a bad effect on them.