PPP's new Missouri poll provides more evidence that Donald Trump emerged from the first debate at least momentarily unscathed. He leads the Republican field in the state with 23% to 11% each for Jeb Bush and Ben Carson, 10% for Mike Huckabee, 9% for Ted Cruz, 8% for Scott Walker, 7% for Carly Fiorina, 6% for Marco Rubio, and 4% each for John Kasich and Rand Paul. That makes for a very clean top ten in Missouri because everyone else is at 1% or less- Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum all get 1%, George Pataki is at less than 1%, and Jim Gilmore and Lindsey Graham have literally no supporters.
What really stands out in the numbers is how broad Trump's support is- he leads with moderates (25%), 'somewhat conservative' voters (23%), and 'very conservative' voters (20%) alike. He is a lot stronger with men (30%) but he leads with women too at 16%. He's particularly strong with young voters (32%) but also leads with middle aged voters (21%) and seniors (17%). Every group we track he has the lead with on this poll.
Our findings in Missouri also reinforce some of what we found in Iowa over the weekend:
-Carly Fiorina is on the rise. Her 7% showing moves her up to 7th place in the GOP standings, and she has a solid 50/18 favorability rating.
-Rand Paul is really falling apart. His favorability is under water with Missouri Republicans at 36/44, and only 4% support him for the nomination. It used to be that Chris Christie was the only major candidate we found with negative favorability numbers within the primary electorate, but Paul's joined him on that list.
-There might not be anyone worse off than Christie though. He has a 28/51 favorability rating and now polls at just 1% for the nomination, the same thing we found for him in Iowa.
-With a 71/20 favorability rating Mike Huckabee is by far the most broadly liked of the Republican candidates in Missouri. But it still doesn't translate to much support for the nomination. His opportunity may have passed in 2012. Also near the top of the favorability heap are Marco Rubio (60/18), Ben Carson (57/14), and Ted Cruz (57/19).
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 53% to 25% for Bernie Sanders, 5% each for Martin O'Malley and Jim Webb, and 1% for Lincoln Chafee.
Clinton has dominant leads in the state with 'very liberal' voters (72/21), 'somewhat liberal' ones (57/31), women (57/19), African Americans (64/11), white voters (52/28), and seniors (63/12). Sanders also trails but at least keeps Clinton under 50% with moderates (45/22), men (48/32), and younger voters (47/28). Clinton doing better with 'very liberal' voters than moderates is a departure from most states but is likely a function of non-Democratic voters being able to vote in the Democratic primary in Missouri since it's an open primary state and not being favorable toward her.