Public Policy Polling

Bachmann, Pawlenty unpopular in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Majorities of voters in Minnesota have unfavorable opinions of Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, while Amy Klobucher and Al Franken look strong against potential opponents in their upcoming U.S. Senate races.

Voters hold an unfavorable opinion of Michele Bachmann by a 34-57 margin, including a 29-59 rating among Independents. 57% of  Minnesota voters also say Bachmann should not run for reelection to the House of Representatives while just 37% think she should. 59% of Independents and even 20% of Republicans say Bachmanm should not run for reelection.

Tim Pawlenty also sports a net negative favorability rating at 39-50. A majority of voters (39-51) say they would not support Pawlenty for statewide office in the future.

Bachmann, Pawlenty weak at home

Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty's Presidential bids appear to have done serious damage to their future political prospects in Minnesota.

Bachmann comes home to only a 34% favorability rating, with 57% of voters seeing her negatively. Only 37% of voters statewide think she should run for reelection to her House seat, while 57% believe she should step down.

Pawlenty's numbers are better, but not by much. Only 39% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Similarly just 39% say they would support him in a future bid for statewide office. while 51% say they definitely would not.

For both Bachmann and Pawlenty the most logical next move would be a run for the US Senate.  But their prospects in a bid wouldn't be very good for either this year or 2014.  In hypothetical 2012 match ups, Pawlenty and Bachmann trail Amy Klobuchar by margins of 54-39 and 58-35 respectively.  They do a little better against Al Franken in prospective 2014 bids with Pawlenty down 49-43 and Bachmann trailing 54-39.

Perry debuts in lead in OH primary, Tressel tops for Sen. bid?

Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans should probably not be terribly proud that their top pick for next year’s U.S. Senate nomination is a disgraced football coach.  It is the still-popular Jim Tressel, and he is more than twice as well-known as the other three possible contenders, but it is at best a sign that no one is paying attention to the burgeoning race yet, and at worst a sign that there is little enthusiasm for the real candidates.

Tressel is almost certain not to run for office, but he leads with 23% over Josh Mandel’s 17%, Jim Jordan’s 13%, and Kevin Coughlin’s 5%, with 43% undecided.  Without Tressel, Mandel tops Jordan and Coughlin, 27-16-8, and beats Coughlin in a two-way, 31-12.  Mandel is the establishment’s pick, but with 57% undecided in the latter matchup, anything could happen.

Mandel leading for OH Sen. nomination, Perry for Pres.

The Republican race for the right to face off with Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown next fall seems to lean strongly State Treasurer Josh Mandel's way, based on our new poll and on the latest developments in the race. Polled before Rep. Jim Jordan declined a bid and instead endorsed Mandel, Mandel tops Jordan and former State Sen. Kevin Coughlin, 27-16-8, and beats Coughlin in what will now likely be a two-way race, 31-12.

Since so few voters are familiar with the candidates so far, 57% are undecided. Coughlin obviously has an opportunity, but if he stays in the race, he'll have to cast himself as a Tea-Party, anti-establishment conservative and make up a lot of ground with the furthest right voters, who make up a 41% plurality of this electorate.

Thompson vulnerable to Neumann from the right in WI-Sen.

Raleigh, N.C. – Rep. Tammy Baldwin is still Democrats’ favorite to replace the retiring Sen. Herb Kohl if Russ Feingold declines a bid.  She earns 37% support to former Rep. Steve Kagen’s 22% and Rep. Ron Kind’s 15%, and routs Kagen 48-19 if Kind is not a candidate.  With Baldwin the best-known and by far the most popular, this is somewhat a function of name recognition.  PPP did not test Feingold because in May, his 70% support in an eight-candidate slate showed field-clearing power.

On the Republican side, former Governor Tommy Thompson has a slim 47-39 lead over the more conservative but considerably less-known and less-liked former Rep. Mark Neumann.  While Thompson rakes with the small band of moderates, 57-21, and does well with the center-right, 48-33, Neumann cleans up with the furthest right plurality, 54-38.  Indeed, when voters are exposed to potential lines of attack against Thompson from the Neumann camp, Neumann vaults into an overall 59-26 lead, winning 71-16 with the most conservative voters and 58-27 with the somewhat conservative, with Thompson holding onto only a 44-40 edge with centrists.

Perry, Bachmann tied in Wisconsin

Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann are tied for the Republican Presidential lead in Wisconsin at 20%...with Mitt Romney all the way back at 13%. Sarah Palin at 11%, Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul at 6%, Tim Pawlenty (the poll was conducted before he dropped out) at 3%, and Jon Huntsman at 1% round out the field.

These numbers make it clear that Bachmann and Perry have all the momentum in the state, while all the other candidates are losing steam. Perry wasn't even tested when we polled Wisconsin in May and Bachmann's up 9 points now from her 11% standing then. Everyone else is on the decline- Pawlenty's fall was the worst, down 8 points from 11% in May to now 3%. You can see why he dropped out.

Perry, Bachmann tie Romney for lead in NC, CO

Raleigh, N.C. – Having made his bid for the Republican presidential nomination official Saturday, Rick Perry instantly becomes a big threat to Mitt Romney’s dominance in the Western primaries and in the South, where he is already potentially weak.  Perry ties Romney in Colorado, where Romney had enjoyed a lead, albeit small, when PPP last polled the state in February.  Romney gets 22% to Perry’s 21%, with Michele Bachmann at 15%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 6%, Herman Cain at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.  With Sarah Palin in the field, Romney and Perry are deadlocked at 20%, with Bachmann back at 12%, Palin at 11%, and the others in single digits.  Six months ago, Romney had 19% over Palin’s and Mike Huckabee’s 16% and Newt Gingrich’s 12%, with four others in single digits.

In North Carolina, Romney has declined from 23% to 16% since last month, and Bachmann from 22% to 17%, with Perry tying her for the lead, up from 14%.  Gingrich and Paul are not much further back, at 11% each, with Cain at 9%, Pawlenty at 4%, and Huntsman at 2%.  Palin’s presence makes a much bigger difference here than in Colorado.  Bachmann falls back to 9%, with Romney, Perry, and Palin all at 17%, Cain at 11%, Gingrich at 10%, and the others in single digits.

Perry tied in NC, CO

Rick Perry's only been in the Presidential race for two days but based on our most recent round of state polling he's already close to deserving co-front runner status. We found him tied for the lead last week among Republican voters in both Colorado and North Carolina, two very different states and also two that are a long way from Texas.

In North Carolina Perry's in a three way tie with Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin. Each is getting 17%. Herman Cain at 11% and Newt Gingrich at 10% round out the candidates in double digits and Michele Bachmann at 9%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 2% (the poll was conducted before he dropped out), and Jon Huntsman at 1% represent the rest of the field.

McCotter has no support with MI GOP, Romney tops field

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has rarely found presidential candidates doing exceedingly well in their home-state primaries, but even more rarely has a White House contender fared as poorly as Michigan’s Thad McCotter in his nascent, quixotic bid for the GOP nomination.

Whether Sarah Palin is listed as a candidate or not, McCotter musters only 5% of Michigan Republicans’ preferences for their standard-bearer against President Obama next fall.  That bests only adjacent Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty, who continues to decline in PPP primary polls, garnering 3% with Palin in the field and 4% without.

Leading the pack, regardless of Palin’s presence, is native Mitt Romney, whose father George was Governor over 40 years ago.  Romney gets a quarter of the vote, topping soon-to-be-official-candidate Rick Perry’s 13%, Palin’s and neighboring Minnesota’s Michele Bachmann’s 12%, Herman Cain’s 7%, and Newt Gingrich’s and Ron Paul’s 6%.  Absent Palin, Romney still pulls 24%, but Bachmann takes almost all of Palin’s support, jumping to 18% over Perry’s 14%, and everyone else at roughly the same place.

Romney, Hoekstra up in Michigan

Mitt Romney continues to be the favored Presidential candidate of Republican voters in Michigan, although maybe not to the extent you would expect given his long standing family ties to the state. He's at 24%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 18%, Rick Perry at 14%, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich at 7%, Ron Paul at 6%, Thad McCotter at 5%, and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

Romney's actually in third place with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' at 16%, trailing Bachmann's 22% and Perry's 17%. But as is the case many places he builds a lead by being very strong with moderates (30-12 over Bachmann) and voters labeling themselves as only 'somewhat conservative' (28-17 over both Bachmann and Perry.)