PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.
Virginia- perhaps more than anywhere else we've polled- is somewhere that Republican reluctance to embrace Trump is really hurting him. Clinton is winning 93% of the Democratic vote, to Trump's 81% of the Republican vote. Third party candidates are combining for 9% of the Republican vote in Virginia, but just 1% of the Democratic vote. Trump's net favorability rating of -26 at 34/60 is 19 points worse than Clinton's -7 at 44/51. Again a big piece of the difference is that 90% of Democrats view Clinton positively, while only 73% of Republicans see Trump in a favorable light.
Another thing Clinton has going for her is that 54% of Virginians would rather have another 4 years of Barack Obama as President, to only 41% who would pick Trump. Voters who are undecided in the head to head between Clinton and Trump would prefer Obama over Trump by 29 points. This is something we're consistently finding in our polling- the voters who are undecided vastly prefer continuing the direction of Obama to the sharp pivot of Trump's vision for the country. These folks don't like Hillary Clinton or they'd already be voting for her, but it seems likely for most of these folks the choice is Clinton, third party, or stay home. The least likely possibility is that they'll end up in Trump's column and that means if he's going to come back, he's probably not going to do it by winning over undecideds.
Generally when a state level politician takes the national stage, we find their standing goes down on the home front. That's not the case for Tim Kaine- his 50/37 approval rating with Virginians is up a good bit from 43/35 when we last polled the state in June. For some lower information voters Kaine's selection as the Vice Presidential pick is the first time they've given him much thought, and early indications are that for the most part they like what they see.
Donald Trump made some controversial comments about Vladimir Putin last week, and he finds little support for them from Virginians overall. Only 24% think Putin is a better leader than Barack Obama, who gets 55% on that question. And only 26% like Putin better than Hillary Clinton, who gets 54% on that question. But we continue to find Trump voters going along with most everything he says. 56% of them say Putin is a better leader to 10% for Obama. And 59% of them say they have a higher opinion of Putin, to only 8% who pick Clinton. Of course to put those numbers into some context, 74% of Trump voters support impeaching Clinton the day she takes office if she's elected to only 13% who support letting her actually take the office she's elected to, so in comparison Putin's numbers aren't as high.
A few other Trump notes: