Public Policy Polling

McCotter has no support with MI GOP, Romney tops field

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has rarely found presidential candidates doing exceedingly well in their home-state primaries, but even more rarely has a White House contender fared as poorly as Michigan’s Thad McCotter in his nascent, quixotic bid for the GOP nomination.

Whether Sarah Palin is listed as a candidate or not, McCotter musters only 5% of Michigan Republicans’ preferences for their standard-bearer against President Obama next fall.  That bests only adjacent Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty, who continues to decline in PPP primary polls, garnering 3% with Palin in the field and 4% without.

Leading the pack, regardless of Palin’s presence, is native Mitt Romney, whose father George was Governor over 40 years ago.  Romney gets a quarter of the vote, topping soon-to-be-official-candidate Rick Perry’s 13%, Palin’s and neighboring Minnesota’s Michele Bachmann’s 12%, Herman Cain’s 7%, and Newt Gingrich’s and Ron Paul’s 6%.  Absent Palin, Romney still pulls 24%, but Bachmann takes almost all of Palin’s support, jumping to 18% over Perry’s 14%, and everyone else at roughly the same place.

Romney, Hoekstra up in Michigan

Mitt Romney continues to be the favored Presidential candidate of Republican voters in Michigan, although maybe not to the extent you would expect given his long standing family ties to the state. He's at 24%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 18%, Rick Perry at 14%, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich at 7%, Ron Paul at 6%, Thad McCotter at 5%, and Tim Pawlenty at 4%.

Romney's actually in third place with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' at 16%, trailing Bachmann's 22% and Perry's 17%. But as is the case many places he builds a lead by being very strong with moderates (30-12 over Bachmann) and voters labeling themselves as only 'somewhat conservative' (28-17 over both Bachmann and Perry.)

Obama leads in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – Though Democrats were walloped in Michigan in 2010, Michigan in 2012 is shaping up to be much more like Michigan in 2008. As Obama’s approval rating falls underwater nationally, Michigan still approves 50-46 (47-45 in March). Democrats approve 89-8, almost as strongly as Republicans disapprove, 8-91. Independents aren’t too fond of the president, rating Obama 41-53. Obama remains above water thanks to a 40% Democratic plurality in the state.

Obama easily tops most of his prospective opponents. While Mitt Romney, whose father was governor of Michigan, holds Obama to just a 47-42 lead (48-41 in March), Obama has a double digit advantage over the other candidates. Obama leads Rick Perry 50-35, Michele Bachmann 53-37, Herman Cain 50-33, Sarah Palin 54-36, and native son Thad McCotter 50-31. Obama takes at least 88% of the Democratic vote while winning with independents against all but Romney. However, Obama’s margin could narrow as the election draws near as more undecided voters are Republicans than Democrats.

Obama leads in Michigan

A slim majority of voters in Michigan approve of the job Barack Obama's doing as President and he leads all of his potential opponents for reelection in the state.

50% approve of the job Obama's doing to 46% who disapprove. His numbers are holding up decently well because 89% of Democrats remain in his corner. Independents split against him by a 41/53 margin and only 8% of Republicans think he's doing a good job but the largest number of voters in a Michigan Presidential year electorate are going to be Democrats so if Obama can keep the base in line his numbers are going to be pretty solid overall.