Public Policy Polling

Not much support on the homefront

Our polling is making it more and more clear: no one seems to want their home state politicians running for President in 2012:

-Last July we found only 27% of Louisiana voters thought Bobby Jindal should make a bid for the White House while 61% said he should not.

-In December we found 28% of South Dakota voters wanted John Thune to run for President while 55% did not.

-Also in December we found that in MN-6, the state's most Republican leaning Congressional district, only 32% wanted Tim Pawlenty to launch a national campaign with 50% opposed to the idea.

-And on our South Carolina poll this week there was only 15% support for a Jim DeMint 2012 campaign with 56% opposed.

It's hard to know what to make of these numbers. In the Jindal and Thune cases it may be an indication that voters want them to stay right where they are because they like them- they've posted some of the best approval ratings of any politicians in the country over the last couple years. Pawlenty and DeMint aren't all that popular though so voters in their states may just think they're not up to the task.

Voters also might be concerned that their politicians running for President could bring embarrassment upon their states. As someone who lives in the same county as John Edwards, I certainly can't blame them.

Tim Johnson's Standing

One of the more interesting findings in our South Dakota poll was that voters in the state are pretty evenly divided in their feelings about Tim Johnson, with 46% approving of his job performance and 45% disapproving.

It shouldn't be a big surprise that South Dakotans have mixed feelings about Johnson- he won his Senate seat 51-49 in 1996 and then won reelection just 50-49 in 2002. But he won an easy reelection last year against weak Republican opposition in the aftermath of serious health problems that emerged in late 2006.

Johnson's numbers compared unfavorably to those of Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, perhaps because he has been more supportive of the agenda of President Obama and Congressional Democrats who sport 41% and 28% approval ratings respectively with voters in the state. Johnson has limited crossover support now, with 24% of Republicans approving of his job performance compared to 42% who approve of Herseth Sandlin. He has, however, maintained a higher level of popularity with the party base at 75% approval to 63% for his House colleague.

Johnson's numbers don't really matter all that much at this point though with his next reelection battle five years away. I think Republicans would have a slight advantage for this seat if it was up in 2010 but timing is everything in politics, especially when it comes to Senators. Look for example at the fate of Richard Burr- he squeaked in in a good year for the GOP in 2004 and now it looks like he'll stand for reelection in another good Republican year. If he'd been up in 2006 or 2008 he might have been as good as done.

Whether South Dakota Republicans like it or not, after not giving Johnson a strong challenge in 2008 they've got him for another five years.

GOP favored for South Dakota Governor

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Mike Rounds’ job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 55%
Disapprove...................................................... 32%
Not Sure.......................................................... 14%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tim
Johnson’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 45%
Not Sure.......................................................... 9%

GOP favored for South Dakota Gov

None of the candidates on either side are particularly well known at this point, but Republicans start out favored to keep the Governorship of South Dakota next year.

Nobody running has even 50% name recognition with the state's voters. Ken Knuppe is the most obscure with 82% of voters professing no opinion about him. He is followed by Scott Munsterman at 78%, Dave Knudson at 72%, Dennis Daugaard at 67%, and Scott Heidepreim at 57%.

All four of the Republicans lead the Democrat Heidepreim by margins ranging from 2-13 points. Starting out in the best position is Daugaard with a 42-29 lead. Knudson does next best at 39-29, followed by Munsterman at 35-30 and and Knuppe at 32-30.

Perhaps helping the cause of all the Republicans is the fact that Mike Rounds remains very popular. 55% of voters in the state approve of his job performance to just 32% disapproving, a strong performance in a time when many Governors are seeing their approval ratings deteriorate. Out of 23 Governors whose approval ratings PPP has looked at this year Rounds ranks in a tie for second in popularity with Louisiana's Bobby Jindal, behind only Mike Beebe of Arkansas. Having a well liked outgoing Republican incumbent should help the party's prospects for keeping the office.

Given the relative anonymity of the candidates at this point a lot could change as they become better known, but in a Republican state in a Republican year this office will probably stay in Republican hands.

Full results here

Thune safe for reelection

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator John
Thune’s job performance? If you approve,
press 1. If you disapprove, press 2. If you’re
not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 57%
Disapprove...................................................... 35%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%

Q2 Generally speaking, next year would you vote
to reelect Republican John Thune or vote for
his Democratic opponent? If you would vote for
Thune, press 1. If you would vote for his
Democratic opponent, press 2. If you’re not
sure, press 3.
Thune ............................................................. 56%
Democrat ........................................................ 33%
Not Sure.......................................................... 11%

Thune safe

John Thune participated in two of the closest Senate races of the decade, narrowly losing to Tim Johnson in 2002 and then barely edging out Tom Daschle in 2004. It's going to be a different story in 2010, as Thune looks likely to win in a walk.

Thune's approval rating is 57%, with 35% of voters disapproving of him. The only Senators with better approval numbers than that among about 40 PPP has polled on this year were Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas and Tom Coburn of Oklahoma.

Thune leads a generic Democratic opponent 56-33, which probably goes a long way toward explaining why he doesn't have an actual Democratic opponent. He's got Republicans almost completely united around him at 86-9, leads 44-37 with independents, and picks up a decent 22% of the Democratic vote.

For all of Thune's popularity in the state though, South Dakota voters don't want to see him run for President in 2012. Just 28% are supportive of the idea with 55% opposed. PPP has found similar trends with Bobby Jindal in Louisiana and Tim Pawlenty in Minnesota. Among voters who like the job Thune's doing in the Senate only 43% want him to make a run for the White House, perhaps reflecting a sentiment that good Senators are hard to find and you need to keep the ones you've got on the job.

For now it's clear that if South Dakota's going to be an electoral battleground again in 2010 it will be because of the House race rather than another close Thune contest.

Full results here

Herseth Sandlin popular, Obama not in South Dakota

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you’re not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 41%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%
Not Sure.......................................................... 8%

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of
Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth Sandlin’s
job performance? If you approve, press 1. If
you disapprove, press 2. If you’re not sure,
press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 49%
Disapprove...................................................... 38%
Not Sure.......................................................... 13%

Herseth Sandlin's Standing

The Democratic brand in South Dakota is not very strong right now, and that has Stephanie Herseth Sandlin looking at her toughest fight for reelection since 2004 next year despite the fact that she herself is pretty popular.

52% of voters in the state disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance with just 41% approving. That makes him downright popular compared to Congressional Democrats who get a 60% disapproval rating with only 28% of South Dakotans giving them high marks. And when it comes to the Democratic health care bill that passed the House last month, which Herseth Sandlin prudently voted against, only 25% of voters are supportive with 59% opposed.

Despite all that Herseth Sandlin sports approval numbers that are well ahead of the curve in a year when the popularity of politicians has hit unusual lows. 49% of South Dakota voters approve of the job she's doing to 38% disapproving. Perhaps because of her health care vote Herseth Sandlin's standing with Democratic voters is a little weaker than might be expected- a 63/24 approval. But with Republicans her spread is 42/47, considerably better than what most Democratic members of Congress get across party lines.

When it comes to her reelection next year it appears Herseth Sandlin will have a competitive challenge from Secretary of State Chris Nelson. She leads him at this point by a 46-39 margin, but that's a close margin given that Nelson is an unknown to 59% of voters in the state. Among voters who do know Nelson 29% have a favorable opinion of him to 12% unfavorable and he leads Herseth Sandlin 49-43. So this race could tighten up as he becomes better known. Herseth Sandlin leads Nelson 76-11 with Democrats and 47-29 with independents and also holds him to a 62-24 advantage with Republicans. In a strongly GOP tilted state she needs every one of those independent and Republican votes that she can get.

Against a lesser known potential opponent, State Representative Blake Curd, Herseth Sandlin leads by a wider 52-31 margin.

Herseth Sandlin's standing is a good microcosm of the difficulties Democrats face this year in Republican areas. Even though she is personally popular and did vote against the health care bill, she still only has a single digit lead against a relatively unknown opponent. If Nelson turns out to be a good candidate this race will be highly competitive but it's hard to say there's really anything Herseth Sandlin should be doing differently- it's just not going to be easy in places where Obama and the Congressional leadership are so unpopular.

Full results here

Don't run for President!

The second part of our South Dakota poll tomorrow will show that while John Thune is very popular, voters in the state don't want him to run for President.

That's becoming a theme in the home states of the potential second tier 2012 GOP hopefuls:

-In July we found that despite a 55% approval rating only 27% of Louisiana voters wanted Bobby Jindal to run for President, with 61% opposed to the idea. Among people who liked the job he was doing as Governor just 46% wanted him to go for the White House.

-In September a Star Tribune poll in Minnesota found only 30% of voters there hoping Tim Pawlenty would make a run with 55% opposed.

-Our South Dakota poll finds that Thune's approval rating is 57%, but that only 28% of voters hope he'll make a bid for President with 55% opposed. Among people happy with his performance in the Senate only 43% want him to go for it.

There aren't a lot of popular politicians out there these days, so I guess the states that have them want their officials to keep on working on behalf of the state instead of trying to go national.

A tale of two health care votes

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District and the state of South Dakota probably don't have a whole lot in common, other than the way they voted for President last year. John McCain took AR-2 54-44 and took South Dakota 53-45.

They also both have Democratic members of Congress who are likely to face their strongest challenges in a while next year. We released polling data on Vic Snyder's situation last month and we'll be putting out Stephanie Herseth Sandlin stuff in the morning.

Snyder and Herseth Sandlin diverged on the health care bill in the House last month- he voted for it, she against.

Looking at it purely from a getting reelected standpoint and not from what's right for the world she cast the right vote and he didn't.

Let's go inside the numbers:

-Among people who support the House health care bill, Snyder leads principal opponent Tim Griffin 86-3. Herseth Sandlin, despite voting against it, leads her chief competitor Chris Nelson by an 81-6 spread with those folks. So Snyder is doing eight points better on that front.

-Among people who don't support the House health care bill, Snyder trails Griffin 73-14. With that same group in South Dakota Herseth Sandlin trails Nelson 57-27. So she is doing 29 points better than Snyder on that front.

Herseth Sandlin faces very little in the way of recriminations from her base in spite of her vote, while Snyder now has little in the way of crossover support in the wake of his.

As you can imagine the sum result of that is that while our polls show both incumbents more vulnerable than normal Herseth Sandlin is in a stronger position than Snyder. I'm by no means suggesting that's all because of their health care votes but it certainly could be part of the equation.

I hope a strong health care bill passes and I greatly admire Snyder for his vote- it was politically courageous. But given that the bill passed the House anyway I'm willing to cut Democratic members who voted it against there a great deal of slack if it's the difference between being around in 2011 or not.