Public Policy Polling

Sherrod Brown up eight over Josh Mandel

Raleigh, N.C. – The Ohio Senate race has tightened a bit in the last month, but incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown maintains a high single-digit advantage over his Republican challenger, State Treasurer Josh Mandel.  Brown leads 48-40 among likely voters, down a tick from the 47-37 margin PPP found in early August.

The closure is due mostly to voters souring on Brown and growing a little fonder of Mandel as they get to know him better.  42% approve and 44% disapprove of Brown’s job performance, versus 41-37 in the last survey.  Mandel is seen favorably by a third and unfavorably by 44%, a bump from 26-42 last time.  While Brown is not a particularly popular figure, Mandel is one of the weakest Republican candidates in the country.

Ohio Miscellany

-Sherrod Brown continues to hold a good sized lead in the Ohio Senate race, 48-40 over Josh Mandel. Brown is not a popular incumbent. Only 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 44% who disapprove. But Mandel is not proving to be a strong challenger either, with 33% of voters rating him favorably to 44% with a negative opinion.

A few things stick out in the crosstabs. Brown is winning over 16% of Republican voters, while losing just 10% of Democrats. And even though Barack Obama trailed with independents on this poll, Brown has a 44-40 advantage with them. Brown is winning with white voters, 46-44, and any time a Democrat can manage that they're going to win in Ohio. Brown's still not cracking 50% but Mandel's road to victory looks pretty tough.

-Democrats are winning the battle for public opinion when it comes to early voting in the state. 58% think it should be available the weekend before the election to 35% who think it should not. A strong majority of Democrats (78/18), a slight majority of independents (52/37), and even 40% of Republicans think it should be open.

Secretary of State Jon Husted is mostly unknown to voters in the state, with 62% having no opinion about him. But he's not making a good impression on the folks who are familiar with him- only 14% rate him favorably to 24% with a negative view.

-Republicans knew what they were doing with the ballot wording for the Ohio redistricting referendum. Last month we found voters in the state supported an independent redistricting commission by a 37/24 margin. But with the official ballot language, which frames the commission as 'removing the authority of elected representatives' and giving it to appointed officials, only 33% of voters now say they support the amendment to 38% who are opposed.

We know from our poll last month that voters generally favor the concept of independent redistricting and with 29% undecided there are still plenty of votes up for grabs but it's going to take a very strong campaign to get this passed given how people react to the ballot language.

Obama maintains three-point lead in Ohio

Raleigh, N.C. -- The Presidential race in crucial Ohio remains basically unchanged since PPP last polled the state in June, showing an identical 3 point edge for President Barack Obama. The incumbent actually opened up a significant lead over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney among independents, from a tie two months ago to a 10 point advantage now, but that surge was offset by Republicans coming home to their nominee.

Both Obama’s approval numbers and Romney’s favorability ticked up in the latest survey, although for different reasons. The president shaved a couple of points off of his disapproval rating through gains made with independents, who now disapprove by 3 points, down from 16. Romney picked up quite a bit more, going from a -19 favorable rating to -11, but this came largely from a 16 point swing in his favor from Republicans.

Obama up slightly in Ohio

PPP's newest poll of Ohio finds Barack Obama with a narrow advantage in the state, at 48% to 45% for Mitt Romney. Obama's three point lead is unchanged from PPP's last survey there in late June.

Ohio provides a good illustration of how disgusted voters are with both of their serious choices in this election. They are not happy with the job Obama's doing, giving him a 46% approval rating with 51% of voters disapproving. But he leads anyway because folks are even less enamored with Romney- just 41% have a favorable opinion of him to 52% who see him negatively.

This poll was taken Thursday-Sunday, straddling Romney's announcement of Paul Ryan as his running mate. We found Ohio voters to be split three ways on Ryan with 34% rating him favorably, 33% unfavorably, and 33% having no opinion. Republicans (61/6) like him more than Democrats (11/52) dislike him, but independents split against him 32/43. For now his selection looks like a wash but we'll see how it unfolds.

Obama (83% of Democrats) and Romney (85% of Republicans) are getting similar levels of support from their respective party bases. Obama's lead is thanks to a 49/39 lead with independents who in addition to disliking Ryan also have an extremely dim view of Romney (34/57 favorability.)

Sen. Brown holds steady, Kasich already in trouble

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite steady increases in name recognition for Republican challenger Josh Mandel, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold onto a modest lead in his first re-election bid.

Brown’s lead has dipped 1 point to 7 points (46-39) since mid-May, despite an 8-point increase in name recognition for Mandel during that same period. Name recognition for Mandel, current state treasurer, is at 63%, up from 39% in February and 55% in mid-May, when the last statewide Senate election poll was conducted.Mandel’s name is more recognized, but not more popular. Mandel’s unfavorability rating has increased 9 points since May and his favorability rating has fallen 1 point since May.

OH-Sen steady, Kasich improving

All of the negative advertising in the Ohio Senate race is having the effect of making both candidates unpopular with voters in the state. A 42% plurality now disapprove of Sherrod Brown's job performance to only 38% who approve, a net 9 point decline since early May when he was on positive ground at 40/35. But Josh Mandel has seen a similar downward spiral in his numbers- only 24% of voters see him favorably to 39% with a negative opinion, down a net 10 points from 25/30 last month.

The net effect of all this on the horse race? Not much. Brown leads Mandel 46-39, numbers little changed from a 45-37 spread a month ago. Brown's ahead 43-34 with independents, and he's winning over 15% of Republicans while Mandel gets only 12% of Democrats. There are more undecided Republicans than Democrats, so Mandel may have more room for growth than Brown. But for now Brown continues to have the upper hand.

John Kasich remains unpopular, with 40% of voters approving of him to 48% who disapprove. But those are actually the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. His numbers have improved a net 16 points since the Senate Bill 5 repeal in early November when he was at 33/57. He's steady with Republicans but has seen his standing get better with both Democrats and independents.

Mandel closes on Brown, still down 8

Raleigh, N.C. – As Ohioans have become a little more familiar with Republican Senate nominee Josh Mandel, his deficit to freshman Sen. Sherrod Brown has closed a little.  When PPP last surveyed the state a little over three months ago, only 39% had an opinion of their new state treasurer, and they fell at 14% favorable and 25% unfavorable.  That has now risen to 55% (25-30).  All of the positive movement comes with Republicans (20-15 to 39-14) and independents (13-26 to 23-28), while Democrats have soured even more on him (10-33 to 12-47).  Brown’s approval numbers have slipped a little as well, from 42% approving and 34% disapproving to 40-35. 

Because of this shift towards a more positive view of Mandel and a slightly more negative one of Brown, the GOP candidate now only trails Brown by eight points (45-37), an improvement over his 11-point disadvantage in January (47-36).  Brown leads by 13 (42-29) with independents.  Both candidates have room to consolidate their bases: Brown gets 77% of Democrats and Mandel 70% of Republicans.

Brown leads OH-Sen, looking ahead to 2014

PPP's newest poll on the Ohio Senate race finds things tightening up a little bit. Sherrod Brown continues to lead Josh Mandel, but the 8 point margin at 45-37 is down from 11 points when we last polled the state in late January.

One reason for the closing may be that Mandel has become much better known over the last three months. His name recognition is now 55%, up from 39% on our previous poll of the state. Brown continues to have ok but unspectacular approval numbers with 40% of voters approving of him to 35% who disapprove.

The most encouraging sign for Brown in the poll is probably his 13 point lead with independents. But there continue to be more undecided Republicans (19%) than there are Democrats (14%) so although Brown certainly remains the favorite there's reason to believe the race could continue to get closer.

OH-Sen.: Brown in strong shape versus Mandel

Raleigh, N.C. – Sherrod Brown continues to look like a strong favorite for reelection to the Senate from Ohio, leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel 47-36. The race has tightened a little bit though since PPP's last poll, which found Brown leading by a 49-34 spread.

Brown's approval numbers aren't earth shattering- 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 34% who disapprove. The worst news for him is that independents split against him by a 37/44 margin. But at the same time 20% of Republicans think he's doing a good job and that's an unusual amount of crossover supprt in this climate.

Brown up 11 on Mandel

Sherrod Brown continues to look like a strong favorite for reelection to the Senate from Ohio, leading Republican challenger Josh Mandel 47-36. The race has tightened a little bit though since PPP's last poll, which found Brown leading by a 49-34 spread.

Brown's approval numbers aren't earth shattering- 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 34% who disapprove. The worst news for him is that independents split against him by a 37/44 margin. But at the same time 20% of Republicans think he's doing a good job and that's an unusual amount of crossover supprt in this climate.

Mandel's name recognition is on the rise.  When we last polled Ohio in early November just 33% of voters were familiar with him and that's now up to 39%. The problem for Mandel is that while the share of voters seeing him favorably- 14%- has stayed in place, the percentage with an unfavorable opinion has risen from 19% to 25%. Voters aren't warming up to him as they get to know him better.