Public Policy Polling

Deal unpopular, still leads opponents

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP continues to find Nathan Deal with pretty mediocre approval numbers. Only 36% of voters approve of him to 41% who disapprove. That's nearly identical to the 37/40 spread we found for him in early December. Nevertheless Deal looks like a favorite for reelection. He would lead Jason Carter 46/38 and John Barrow and Kasim Reed 48/38 in hypothetical match ups. This may be a situation where Deal's unpopularity would let a strong Democratic candidate make the race competitive, but it would be hard for a challenger to actually get to 50%.

“Nathan Deal isn’t very popular,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the Republican lean of the state makes him a favorite for reelection anyway.”

Our newest look at Saxby Chambliss' approval numbers probably confirms that he made the right choice by deciding to retire.  Only 47% of Republicans are happy with the job he's doing to 31% who disapprove. It's hard to fight off a serious primary challenge when your numbers are under 50% in your party. Chambliss' overall approval is 35/41. Georgians aren't real big on any of their politicians- Johnny Isakson comes in at 37/39 and Barack Obama's at 45/53 in the state.

Georgia Miscellany

-PPP continues to find Nathan Deal with pretty mediocre approval numbers. Only 36% of voters approve of him to 41% who disapprove. That's nearly identical to the 37/40 spread we found for him in early December. Nevertheless Deal looks like a favorite for reelection. He would lead Jason Carter 46/38 and John Barrow and Kasim Reed 48/38 in hypothetical match ups. This may be a situation where Deal's unpopularity would let a strong Democratic candidate make the race competitive, but it would be hard for a challenger to actually get to 50%.

-Our newest look at Saxby Chambliss' approval numbers probably confirms that he made the right choice by deciding to retire.  Only 47% of Republicans are happy with the job he's doing to 31% who disapprove. It's hard to fight off a serious primary challenge when your numbers are under 50% in your party. Chambliss' overall approval is 35/41. Georgians aren't real big on any of their politicians- Johnny Isakson comes in at 37/39 and Barack Obama's at 45/53 in the state.

-The Falcons aren't making much progress in the court of public opinion about their need for a new stadium. In December only 15% of voters thought they needed one and after scads of press coverage in the last couple months that's only gone up to 20%. There's only 17% support for any taxpayer funding for a new stadium with 69% of voters opposed to it.

Chambliss potentially vulnerable

Raleigh, N.C. – Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss is theoretically very vulnerable to a primary challenger in 2014: it's just a question of whether any of the folks interested in taking him on can run a strong enough campaign to take advantage of that vulnerability.

Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 52/34 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23.

Chambliss vulnerable in a primary...

Georgia Senator Saxby Chambliss is theoretically very vulnerable to a primary challenger in 2014: it's just a question of whether any of the folks interested in taking him on can run a strong enough campaign to take advantage of that vulnerability.

Only 38% of Republican primary voters say they want Chambliss to be their nominee next year, compared to 43% who would prefer someone more conservative. But Chambliss stomps most of the people who've shown the most interest in taking him on. He leads Congressman Paul Broun by a 57/14 margin in a head to head, has a 50/22 advantage over Congressman Tom Price, and leads former Secretary of State Karen Handel 52/23.

By far and away the Republican who would pose the greatest threat to Chambliss in a primary, if he changed his mind about running, is Herman Cain. Cain would lead Chambliss 50-36 in a hypothetical match up. Cain has a 68/20 favorability rating with GOP primary voters, which compares quite favorably to Chambliss' 45/36 approval spread. Other long shot candidates we tested against Chambliss were Allen West, who trails 47/26, and Erick Erickson who trails 51/22.

Chambliss is extremely weak with Republicans describing themselves as 'very conservative.' 61% of them would like to replace him, compared to only 23% who would like to see him nominated again. He would trail Cain 68/19 with that group of voters.

In terms of the general election the Georgia Senate race is somewhat reminiscent of the Indiana contest this cycle- if Chambliss is the nominee the seat is probably safe for the GOP, but if someone far to his right wins the primary the Democrats might have a chance if everything goes their way.