Public Policy Polling

Clinton would beat Walker, Ryan in Wisconsin in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin voters would pick Hillary Clinton over their state’s own Scott Walker or Paul Ryan for president in 2016, according to PPP’s latest Wisconsin poll.

Clinton leads Ryan 51% to 43%, Walker 54% to 41% and Marco Rubio 52% to 38%. She has a formidable +19 favorability rating, with 56% of voters holding a favorable opinion to 37% unfavorable. Clinton’s strong numbers stem from her popularity with moderates (71/20) and independent voters (58/34). Ryan’s favorability is evenly split at 46%.

In the GOP primary, Ryan leads with 35% support without Walker included, and Walker leads with 33% support without Ryan in the mix. In both cases Rubio is a close second (27% against Walker, 22% against Ryan) and Chris Christie is a distant third at 10%.

Wisconsin Miscellany

PPP's new Wisconsin poll finds that Hillary Clinton would be dominant in the state, both in primary and general elections. Clinton leads home state Republicans Paul Ryan 51-43 and Scott Walker 54-41 in hypothetical match ups in the state. Her 56/37 favorability rating makes her far more popular than either of them. She leads Ryan by 13 and Walker by 20 points with independents. Clinton would also lead Marco Rubio 52/38 in the state.

As much as Wisconsin Democrats love Russ Feingold, they'd still much rather have Clinton as their 2016 Presidential candidate. 50% say she would be their choice to 25% for Feingold, 11% for Joe Biden, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, and 2% for Elizabeth Warren.

On the Republican side both Ryan and Walker would be the favorites for President in the state if they ran, but not by particularly overwhelming margins given their home state status. Ryan polls at 35% to 22% for Marco Rubio and 10% for Chris Christie with no one else in double digits. Walker polls at 33% to 27% for Rubio and 10% for Christie. It's a sign of Rubio's strength that he polls so close to those guys even on their own turf.

Other findings in Wisconsin:

Feingold-Walker race could be a nail-biter

Raleigh, N.C. – It may be hard to remember that Scott Walker, having already faced voters twice in two years, is still in his first term.  And looking ahead to his bid for re-election next fall, he continues to look slightly vulnerable on paper, depending on who Democrats throw at him.  Voters are split down the middle on Walker’s job performance, with 48% approving and 49% disapproving, but of six challengers PPP threw at him in its first 2013 Wisconsin poll, only one tops him, and barely: former Sen. Russ Feingold.

Feingold leads Walker, 49-47.  But Walker still has 46-48% of the vote against the other five, and leads them by margins of four to nine points: Ron Kind (46-42), Peter Barca (48-43), Jon Erpenbach (48-42), Steve Kagen (48-41), and Mahlon Mitchell (48-39).

Granted, Feingold is by far the best-known and best-liked option for Democrats.  53% of voters see him favorably, and only 37% unfavorably.  The 11% who cannot express an opinion on Feingold pales in comparison to the 55% (Kind) to 74% (Mitchell) who are unsure about the other Democrats.  So the shape of the horse races this far out tracks closely with the Democrats’ name identification.  Thus, though Walker starts at nearly 50%, a close race could still develop without Feingold if the eventual Democratic nominee is able to raise enough cash and, with it, his or her profile.  As it stands now, some of the candidates lead among voters who already are familiar with both them and the incumbent.  But the fact that Feingold leads by only two points despite his personal image being significantly superior to that of the governor’s means this will be a tough race for whoever emerges as the challenger.

Walker leads all but Feingold

Scott Walker's approval numbers have dropped since November. On our final pre election poll we found 51% of Wisconsin voters approving of him to 46% who disapproved. That's dropped now to 48% approval and 49% disapproval. The decline has come mostly with Democrats, who have gone from 15% approval of him down to 9%.

Nevertheless Walker leads all but one of the Democrats we tested against him. He's up 4 points on Ron Kind at 46/42, 5 on Peter Barca at 48/43, 6 on Jon Erpenbach at 48/42, 7 on Steve Kagen at 48/41, and 9 on Mahlon Mitchell at 48/39.

It's worth noting that none of these Democrats have particularly high name recognition. Out of this group Kind is the most well known at 45% name recognition, followed by Barca at 37%, Erpenbach and Kagen at 34%, and Mitchell at 26%. Most of the undecideds in these match ups are Democrats, meaning that if any of the match ups actually materialized they would probably get closer. Nevertheless, Walker is close to 50% in all of them and certainly showed himself to be a survivor last year.

The Democrat with the best shot at Walker- just as we found in all of our pre-recall election polling last year- would be Russ Feingold. Feingold has thoroughly rehabilitated his image after his 2010 loss and is now seen favorably by 53% of voters in the state to 37% with a negative opinion. That makes him more popular than any other major political figure in the state. He would start out leading Walker 49/47 in a hypothetical head to head, including a 52/42 lead with independents.

Hillary Clinton towers over 2016 Dem field in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – They may have dealt a huge blow to her campaign in 2008 but Iowa Democrats love Hillary Clinton and express strong support for her if she was to run again in 2016.

Clinton has an 88/6 favorability rating with Democrats in the state. 62% say they would like her to be the nominee in 2016 to 14% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, 2% each for Russ Feingold and Brian Schweitzer, 1% for Martin O'Malley, and 0% for Mark Warner. Clinton's support is pretty universal. 66% of women, 57% of men, 65% of liberals, 58% of moderates, 63% of Democrats, and 61% of independents support her.

Clinton, Huckabee/Santorum/Christie lead Iowa 2016

They may have dealt a huge blow to her campaign in 2008 but Iowa Democrats love Hillary Clinton and express strong support for her if she was to run again in 2016.

Clinton has an 88/6 favorability rating with Democrats in the state. 62% say they would like her to be the nominee in 2016 to 14% for Joe Biden, 4% each for Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Cuomo, 2% each for Russ Feingold and Brian Schweitzer, 1% for Martin O'Malley, and 0% for Mark Warner. Clinton's support is pretty universal. 66% of women, 57% of men, 65% of liberals, 58% of moderates, 63% of Democrats, and 61% of independents support her.

If Clinton doesn't run Biden is next on the list for Iowa Democrats. He is almost as popular as Clinton, with a 76/8 favorability score. He would be the first choice of 28% of voters in a Clinton-less field to 14% for Cuomo, 10% for Warren, 9% for Feingold, 2% for Schweitzer, 1% for Warner, and 0% for O'Malley.

Things look like they would be really wide open in Iowa if neither Clinton nor Biden runs. None of the remaining candidates have much name recognition. Cuomo is known to 43% of voters and Feingold and Warren each have 30% name rec. Warner (21%), Schweitzer (16%), and O'Malley (13%) are all pretty much completely unknown. In that field 47% of voters would be undecided with Cuomo at 17%, Feingold at 15%, Warren at 13%, Schweitzer at 4%, O'Malley at 3%, and Warner at 1%.

The basic picture on the 2016 Dem race at this very early point seems to be Clinton if she runs, Biden if she doesn't, and who knows if neither of them do.

Maybe Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate in 2016 but if not the top tier of candidates in Iowa at this point is Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum at 16% and Chris Christie at 15%. We also tested Jeb Bush and Sarah Palin (both at 10%), Rand Paul (9%), Marco Rubio (7%), and Paul Ryan (5%).

Romney over 50% nationally

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don't suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney's net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).

Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He's up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with 'very conservative' voters.

Romney up big, Clinton and Christie have early 2016 leads

PPP's newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don't suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney's net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).

Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He's up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with 'very conservative' voters. The most striking number in the poll may be Romney's 72/16 favorability with Tea Party voters. That's definitely indicative of a party base ready to get on the same page.

Since the primary's gotten boring and there's a glut of Obama/Romney polls out there we decided to skip ahead and take a super early look at the 2016 primaries.

The Democratic nomination at this point is Hillary Clinton's for the taking if she wants it. She has an amazing 86/10 favorability rating with Democratic voters. In a dream field Clinton gets 57% to 14 for Joe Biden, 6% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Russ Feingold, 2% for Mark Warner, and 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer.

Clinton's appeal to the various different constituencies of the Democratic Party is pretty universal. She's at 58% with 'very liberal' voters, 56% with moderates, 60% with women, 52% with men, 59% with whites, 54% with African Americans, 51% with Hispanics, 64% with seniors, and 44% with young voters.

Walker faces fight of his life in Wisconsin recall election

Raleigh, N.C. – Wisconsin voters are split down the middle in terms of whether to recall Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 49%-49%, but a closer look at prospective matchups suggests that Walker is headed for the battle of his political life to survive a recall challenge. Walker’s approval rating sits at 47% approval and 52% disapproval.

Close Race in the Wisconsin recall

Democratic prospects for recalling Scott Walker are looking like even money right now, an improvement for the party since PPP's last poll in October when Walker led most of his potential opponents.

Walker continues to be unpopular with only 47% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. Pretty much all Republicans approve of him and pretty much all Democrats disapprove, but what turns the scales against him is that he's at just 43/55 with independents.

Walker trails both of his most likely opponents in the recall election by narrow margins. Tom Barrett would lead 49-46 in a rematch of their 2010 contest, and Kathleen Falk has a 48-47 advantage. These numbers represent positive movement for both Barrett and Falk who trailed by 2 and 8 points respectively on PPP's last poll of the race.