Public Policy Polling

Perry dominates in South Carolina

Raleigh, N.C. – If there was any question that Rick Perry is the new Republican presidential frontrunner before now, PPP’s latest poll of South Carolina confirms it.  A week ago, PPP showed Perry jumping to a narrow lead in first-caucus Iowa.  Now, he has a double-digit lead in what will likely be the third-voting state. 

Perry tops with 36% to Mitt Romney’s 16%, Michele Bachmann’s 13%, Herman Cain’s 9%, Newt Gingrich’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 5%, Rick Santorum’s 4%, and Jon Huntsman’s 2%.  This is a sea change from when PPP last polled the race in June, with Perry not included.  Romney led with 30% to Cain’s and Gingrich’s 15%, Bachmann’s 13%, and Paul’s 10%.  If Sarah Palin joins the fray, it has no impact on Perry’s dominance but a lot on Bachmann’s standing.  Palin would place third at 10% behind Perry still at 36%, Romney at 13%, followed by Cain’s 9%, and Bachmann and Gingrich tied at 7%.

Perry would also dominate if the race came down to the top three, with half the vote to Romney’s quarter and Bachmann’s 16%.  Romney would narrowly beat Bachmann, 45-40, while Perry would crush either, 59-28 over Romney and 60-23 over Bachmann.

Perry debuts in lead in Iowa caucus race

Raleigh, N.C. – Despite being a write-in candidate who had just officially declared his candidacy the morning before balloting, Rick Perry got more votes at the Ames Straw Poll a week and a half ago than did four other candidates who were listed, including previous frontrunner Mitt Romney.  Now Perry is seriously challenging Romney’s dominant hold on the race, which Michele Bachmann had also begun to do in recent weeks.  The current three-candidate top tier is now cemented with PPP’s latest poll of potential Iowa caucusgoers, but the media would be remiss to forget about Ron Paul, who placed a close second to Bachmann at Ames.

Polled for the first time here, Perry leads with 22% over Romney’s 19%, Bachmann’s 18%, Paul’s 16%, Herman Cain’s 7%, Newt Gingrich’s and Rick Santorum’s 5%, and Jon Huntsman’s 3%.  Santorum had not been polled here before either. 

If Sarah Palin jumps into the race, she would harm Bachmann and Paul but hardly makes a dent in Romney’s or Perry’s support.  Perry would still lead with 21% over Romney’s 18%, Bachmann’s 15%, Paul’s 12%, and Palin’s 10%.

Perry takes the lead in Iowa

Rick Perry is the new leader in Iowa:

The race is pretty close four ways in Iowa but Rick Perry is the new favorite among Republican voters in the state. Among announced candidates he's at 22% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Michele Bachmann, and 16% for Ron Paul. Further back are Herman Cain at 7%, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

If you throw Sarah Palin into the mix the numbers are pretty similar with Perry at 21%, Romney at 18%, Bachmann at 15%, Paul at 12%, and Palin registering at only 10%.

Romney holds modest lead over Bachmann in New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP last polled New Hampshire in April, only Donald Trump proved competitive with Mitt Romney. Since then, Michele Bachmann has become Romney’s closest competitor, and now trails Romney in New Hampshire by a similar margin.  Romney holds the lead with 25% and is followed by Bachmann with 18%, Sarah Palin with 11%, Paul with 9%, Herman Cain and Rick Perry with 7%, Huntsman and Pawlenty with 6%, and Newt Gingrich with 4%.

Without Palin in the race, Romney retains his 7 point lead, taking 28% to Bachmann’s 21%, Perry and Paul’s 9%, Cain and Huntsman’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Gingrich’s 4%. If unlikely candidates Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani, and Paul Ryan were to enter the race, Romney would still lead. He would take 26% of the vote with 20% for Christie, 14% for Bachmann, 9% for Giuliani, 8% for Palin and Bush, 5% for Pawlenty, and 3% for Ryan.

Bachmann surging, signs of weakness for Romney

When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She's gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.

Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney's way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.

Romney tops GOP field in Florida, Jeb Bush if he runs

Raleigh, N.C. – Though Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain are surging after their recent debate performances, the biggest beneficiary of recent changes in the dynamics of the Republican presidential race is Mitt Romney, who now leads in PPP’s GOP primary polls in the last two months nationally and in all five of the earliest nominating contests.

 When PPP last polled Florida in late March, Romney was knotted with Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich for the lead at 18%, with Sarah Palin close behind at 15%.  Since then, Huckabee has declined a bid and Gingrich has seen his standing nosedive across the country.  That now leaves Romney atop the heap at 27%, followed by Palin and Bachmann at 17%, Cain at 10%, Gingrich at 8%, Ron Paul at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2%.  Bachmann was at only 7% in the previous poll, and Cain was not tested.  Pawlenty has not improved at all here, placing at 6% last time.  His high profile has not made nearly the impact Bachmann’s and Cain’s have.

If Palin decides not to run, it would boost Bachmann and Cain most of all, but still leave Romney in the lead with 29% to Bachmann’s 22%, Cain’s 14%, Gingrich’s 10%, Paul’s 8%, Pawlenty’s 6%, and Huntsman still at 2%.  This poll was taken prior to Huntsman’s official entry into the race, but he has not yet placed above the low single digits even with wide media speculation of his candidacy.

Huckabee strong in IA if he runs, Romney favored otherwise

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled New Hampshire Republicans a few weeks ago, Donald Trump was the only candidate who came close to that primary’s frontrunner, Mitt Romney, lagging only 27-21.  But Trump is much less of a threat to Iowa’s 2008 winner and current leader, Mike Huckabee, who earns 27% of usual caucusgoers’ support, over Romney’s 16% and Trump’s 14%, with everyone else in single digits.  Without Trump in the picture, Huckabee leads Romney, 30-18, the same split as when PPP last polled the race in early January. Palin and Newt Gingrich jump up to 12% apiece.

Absent Trump Tim Pawlenty has barely increased his support from 4% to 7% since then, while Sarah Palin has dropped from 15% to 12%, possibly coinciding not only with her lower profile since the Tucson shootings but also since the emergence of Trump and Michele Bachmann as serious contenders.

Jeb would easily win FL pres. primary, unclear race otherwise

Raleigh, N.C. – Florida is trying to move its primary up and increase its influence in the GOP presidential primary process, but right now, the state’s Republican voters are not too decisive about which candidate they favor—unless their former governor Jeb Bush changes his mind.  In PPP’s usual eight-candidate field, 18% favor each Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich, with Sarah Palin not far behind, at 15%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 6% apiece, and Haley Barbour at 3%.

In the event various candidates do not jump into the fray, the picture changes little.  Without Huckabee, Gingrich jumps to 24%, Romney to 23%, Palin to 14%, and Paul to 9%.  Everyone else runs in place.  Without Palin, Huckabee leads at 24%, with Gingrich and Romney at 22% each, and Bachmann at 9%.  With neither Palin nor Huckabee, Gingrich tops Romney, 30-28, with Bachmann at 11%, Pawlenty at 10%, and Paul at 9%.

Trump gives Romney run for his money in NH

Raleigh, N.C. – Few in the media and pundit class are taking Donald Trump seriously as a presidential contender, but evidently New Hampshire Republicans are.  Neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney leads in every variation of the potential GOP field, but his grip on the state is slimmest with Trump in the mix.

Overall, Romney is about where he was when he finished second to John McCain in 2008, with 32% of the vote then and 31% now.  But that is a far cry from the 40% he earned when PPP last polled the race just before last November’s election.  Behind him are Mike Huckabee (15%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Sarah Palin and Ron Paul (10%), Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann (4%), and Haley Barbour (2%), with 12% undecided.

Obama prevailing over Republicans in Florida

Raleigh, N.C. – Unsurprisingly, the picture has little changed since December, when PPP last took a look at the early 2012 presidential race in the crucial swing state of Florida.  President Obama beat John McCain there by three points in 2008, and he now has similar leads over two possible GOP nominees, and tops the others by almost identical margins as three months ago.