Public Policy Polling

Senator Reed with large lead over Republicans

Raleigh, N.C. – Rhode Island voters have put Democratic Senator Jack Reed in a comfortable position going into next year’s election cycle. When polled against several Republican potentials, he wins by at least 29 points.

Among Rhode Island voters, Senator Jack Reed is currently sitting at an approval rating of 62% which is 3 points higher than that of President Obama (59-36). The highest approval rating of potential Republican candidates for the Senate race next year is Cranston mayor, Allan Fung with 55%. The lowest Republican approval rate is retired baseball pitcher, Curt Schilling, with a 9% favorability and 74% unfavorable rating.

When positioned against Republicans Brendan Doherty, Scott Avedisian, Allan Fung, Don Carcieri and Curt Schilling in the Senate race, Reed wins by 29, 30, 34, 41 and 65 points, respectively. Their overwhelming approval of Democratic Senator Reed could be due to the fact that Rhode Island voters have not chosen a Republican for Reed’s seat since 1930.

Reed looks like a shoo in

Jack Reed may be the least vulnerable Senator in the country up for reelection next year. Reed is one of only 8 Senators who we find with an approval rating at 60% or higher in our polling, with 62% of voters giving him good marks and only 32% of voters disapproving of him. He leads by at least 29 points in hypothetical match ups against 5 different Republicans we tested.

The potential GOP hopeful who comes closest to Reed is Brendan Doherty, but he still trails by a 63/34 margin. Scott Avedisian trails 60-30 and Allan Fung trails 63-29. Rhode Island's most recent major Republican official, former Governor Don Carcieri, has seen his image completely tank. Only 30% of voters have a favorable opinion of him now to 53% with a negative one, and he trails Reed 66-25 in a hypothetical match up.

We also- just for fun- tested Curt Schilling as a possible foe against Reed. The result is the most lopsided general election Senate poll result we've ever found in the history of PPP- Reed would lead Schilling 75-10. The 38 Studios mess has destroyed Schilling's reputation- only 9% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 74% with a negative one.

Other notes from Rhode Island:

Gay marriage popular but Chafee not

Raleigh, N.C. – Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

Chafee unpopular; Rhode Island voters support gay marriage

Lincoln Chafee's prospects for a second term as Governor of Rhode Island are looking pretty dim. Only 33% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 59% who disapprove. That ties him for the second most unpopular Governor in the country in our polling- the only person with worse numbers is Pat Quinn of Illinois.

Chafee does poorly in numerous scenarios we tested for next year's Gubernatorial race:

-In four different scenarios testing four candidates- either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block- Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

-In two scenarios testing Chafee as the Democratic candidate he finishes second, running 4 points behind the Republican candidates we tested, Brendan Doherty and Allan Fung.

-It would be difficult for Chafee to become the Democratic candidate anyway though. 35% of Democratic primary voters want Gina Raimondo to be their candidate next year to just 22% for Chafee, 19% for Angel Taveras, and 11% for Ernie Almonte.

Overall 57% of voters don't want Chafee to seek reelection next year. 20% want him to run as an independent and 18% think he should run for election again as a Democrat.

The early front runner in next year's race is Raimondo. In addition to leading the Democratic primary field, she also leads every general election scenario we tested. She leads Brendan Doherty by 4 points and Allan Fung by 12 points in four way contests with Chafee in the picture as an independent. When you take Chafee out of the picture Raimondo leads Doherty by 12 points and Fung by 19 points in three way contests. 57% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Raimondo, and her popularity holds true across party lines. Majorities of independents (63/19), Democrats (53/23), and Republicans (52/23) all have a positive opinion of her.

Americans love Hawaii, dislike California

Raleigh, N.C. – Over the course of four months starting last October, PPP asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

Americans generally have a favorable view of most states.  Only five are in negative territory, led by California (27% favorable and 44% unfavorable), Illinois (19-29), New Jersey (25-32), Mississippi (22-28), and Utah (24-27).  Only seven other states have net-positive ratings in the single digits, and another breaks even (Louisiana).

State favorability poll

Over the course of four months starting last October, we asked American voters nationally what their impressions of each state are.  Hawaii came out on top, by far, with California bringing up the rear.

State	+/-	Margin
Hawaii	54-10	44
Colorado	44-9	35
Tennessee	48-14	34
South Dakota	42-8	34
Virginia	45-13	32
Montana	39-7	32
Alaska	46-17	29
Oregon	43-14	29
North Carolina	40-11	29
Pennsylvania	40-11	29
Washington	43-17	26
Kentucky	42-16	26
Iowa	42-17	25
Oklahoma	40-16	24
Vermont	39-15	24
Wisconsin	40-17	23
Wyoming	34-11	23
Florida	43-21	22
North Dakota	33-11	22
Missouri	32-11	21
New Hampshire	37-18	19
Indiana	31-12	19
Idaho	30-11	19
Nebraska	29-11	18
Arizona	39-22	17
Michigan	38-21	17
Maine	32-15	17
Ohio	34-18	16
Delaware	32-16	16
Maryland	31-15	16
South Carolina	34-19	15
New Mexico	30-15	15
Kansas	28-13	15
New York	40-29	11
Georgia	31-20	11
Minnesota	27-17	10
Rhode Island	26-16	10
Texas	40-31	9
Massachusetts	35-27	8
West Virginia	23-15	8
Arkansas	25-20	5
Connecticut	26-22	4
Nevada	28-26	2
Alabama	27-26	1
Louisiana	24-24	0
Utah	24-27	-3
Mississippi	22-28	-6
New Jersey	25-32	-7
Illinois	19-29	-10
California	27-44	-17

Of 17 states polled, US voters most divided on TX, least on PA

Raleigh, N.C. – In its latest national poll, in the first of a three-part series, PPP asked American voters how they feel about 17 different states.  Of this first bunch, Texas is the most polarizing—it has both the highest favorability and highest unfavorability rating.  Pennsylvania matches Texas in favor and has much less disfavor, making it the most popular.  The least liked are Illinois and Mississippi, two of only three (along with Utah) which more voters see negatively than positively.

Polling the States

Over the next 3 months PPP will be polling the favorability of all 50 states as part of its national surveys, in order to determine the most popular and least popular ones in the country.  We started off this month with the first 17.  Here's how they stack up from best net favorability to worst:

State	Favorability	Spread
Pennsylvania	40/11	+29
Indiana	31/12	+19
Idaho	30/11	+19
Arizona	39/22	+17
Maryland	31/15	+16
New Mexico	30/15	+15
Georgia	31/20	+11
Minnesota	27/17	+10
Rhode Island	26/16	+10
Texas	40/31	+9
Massachusetts	35/27	+8
Arkansas	25/20	+5
Alabama	27/26	+1
Louisiana	24/24	Even
Utah	24/27	-3
Mississippi	22/28	-6
Illinois	19/29	-10

RI GOP favors Carcieri for Senate, Romney for President

Raleigh, N.C. – If Rhode Island’s most recent ex-governor chooses to make a bid to challenge freshman Senator Sheldon Whitehouse next year, he would be an instant favorite to claim the Republican nomination.

Carcieri gets almost half the votes, with 44% over four others knotted way back at 12% each: Scott Avedisian, Buddy Cianci, John Loughlin, and John Robitaille.  Allan Fung gets 6%, Catherine Taylor 2%, and Giovanni Cicione less than 1%.

RI Republicans want Carcieri, Romney

Our Rhode Island Senate poll last week found that former Governor Don Carcieri would actually be one of the weakest candidates possible for the Republicans to put forward against Sheldon Whitehouse next year. In spite of that he's the first choice of GOP voters in the state with 44% saying they'd like him to be their candidate. After him it's a four way tie for 2nd place at 12% with Scott Avedisian, Buddy Cianci, John Loughlin, and John Robitaille all registering there. Further back are Allan Fung at 6%, who announced he wouldn't run after we'd already conducted the poll, Catherine Taylor at 2%, and Giovanni Cicione at 0% (1 person said he was their top choice.)

If you take Carcieri and Cianci out of the mix Robitaille becomes the top choice at 31%, followed by Loughlin at 24%, and Avedisian at 21%. The departed Fung is at 14% with Cicione up to 3% and Taylor still at 2%.

Our general election numbers found that Avedisian would be the most viable Republican against Whitehouse but these numbers suggest some lack of enthusiasm for him from the party base. His path to the nomination seems as if it would really benefit from a clear field. Otherwise he could be susceptible to a more conservative opponent.

Mitt Romney's the overwhelming first choice for President in the state. 39% of voters hope he'll be the nominee to 15% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Sarah Palin. Rounding out the field of candidates is Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 5%, Mitch Daniels at 4%, and the now departed John Thune at 1%.

Romney's favorability numbers lag the rest of the Republican field in most of the states we've been polling but that's not a problem for him in Rhode Island. 73% of GOP voters have a positive opinion of him to only 16% with a negative one. Besides him only Huckabee is able to crack 60%, at a 64/19 spread. Gingrich comes in at 56/28 and Palin barely even cracks majority popularity with the base at 51/36.

Full results here