Public Policy Polling

Romney up five in Montana

Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama is in worse shape in Montana than he was four years ago against John McCain.  As part of his near landslide nationally, he lost this usually Republican state by only two points.  Now, he trails Mitt Romney by five.  But that is half the deficit Obama faced just five months ago.

Romney leads Obama 48-43, down from a 50-40 advantage when PPP last polled the state in November.  Worse for Romney is that his soon-to-be-vanquished intraparty foe Ron Paul actually leads Obama by eight points (49-41).  Obama is able to keep it relatively close here because he basically ties Romney with the plurality independents, while Paul leads by 22 points.

Romney leads Obama narrowly in Montana

President Obama is in worse shape in Montana than he was four years ago against John McCain.  As part of his near landslide nationally, he lost this usually Republican state by only two points.  Now, he trails Mitt Romney by five.  But that is half the deficit Obama faced just five months ago, and by most standards makes Montana a marginal swing state.

Romney leads Obama 48-43, down from a 50-40 advantage when PPP last polled the state in November.  Worse for Romney is that his soon-to-be-vanquished intraparty foe Ron Paul actually leads Obama by eight points (49-41).  Obama is able to keep it relatively close here because he basically ties Romney with the plurality independents, while Paul leads by 22 points.

At this point, Romney is far more popular than Paul with Republicans, and has two-thirds of the vote in the caucus, while Paul only maintains the quarter of the vote he got in the three-way 2008 caucus.  But with independents, Romney has a lot of work to do, and this is true and more problematic for him in swing states where Obama is doing just as well as he did in 2008 because of Romney’s toxicity with independents and Democrats.  That is on top of lingering doubts with some partisan Republicans who were not behind him in the primary battle. 

Paul’s libertarian brother Gary Johnson could also present a problem for Romney, particularly in the western states.  Johnson’s presence on a third-party ballot line would bring Romney’s lead down to two points over Obama, with Johnson pulling 8%.  That is because he lowers Romney’s share of the GOP vote from 92% to 83% while hardly touching Obama’s grasp of his party.

The president probably missed his best shot to win Montana in 2008, but luckily for him, he doesn't even remotely need its three electoral votes to win re-election.

Full results here

Romney, McCrory up big in NC

Raleigh, N.C. – It sounds like Newt Gingrich will be out of the race by the time North Carolina votes and that's just as well for him. Our newest poll finds Mitt Romney with a dominant lead in the state, polling at 48% to 30% for Gingrich and 12% for Ron Paul.

North Carolina makes yet another state where you can really see the Republican base unifying around Romney. He has a 61/25 favorability rating, up from 51/32 just two weeks ago. And he's winning with the groups of the GOP electorate that have typically confounded him. He has a 46-38 lead over Gingrich with a Tea Partiers, a 44-36 advantage with Evangelicals, and he's up 48-36 with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' It's over.

Romney, McCrory up big in NC primaries

It sounds like Newt Gingrich will be out of the race by the time North Carolina votes and that's just as well for him. Our newest poll finds Mitt Romney with a dominant lead in the state, polling at 48% to 30% for Gingrich and 12% for Ron Paul.

North Carolina makes yet another state where you can really see the Republican base unifying around Romney. He has a 61/25 favorability rating, up from 51/32 just two weeks ago. And he's winning with the groups of the GOP electorate that have typically confounded him. He has a 46-38 lead over Gingrich with a Tea Partiers, a 44-36 advantage with Evangelicals, and he's up 48-36 with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' It's over.

So is the Republican primary for Governor. GOP voters aren't looking for an alternative to Pat McCrory to begin with. 66% have a favorable opinion of him to only 9% with a negative one. And what little opposition there is to him is split pretty evenly between 5 different candidates. McCrory's at 67% to 3% for Jim Harney, 2% for Jim Mahan and Paul Wright, and just 1% each for Scott Jones and Charles Kenneth Moss. 23% continue to be undecided.

Romney leads in Texas

Raleigh, N.C. – If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate...but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul.

Texas really shows the extent to which GOP voters have unified around Romney over the last few weeks. When we polled the state in January Republicans were evenly divided in their feelings about him with 44% rating him favorably and 44% giving him poor marks. Now his favorability is a +43 spread at 66/23. That's very much indicative of people jumping on board the train.

Texas is Romney country

If Newt Gingrich was going to win a big victory anywhere between now and the Republican convention Texas would be a logical candidate...but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. Mitt Romney leads the state with 45% to 35% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul.

Texas really shows the extent to which GOP voters have unified around Romney over the last few weeks. When we polled the state in January Republicans were evenly divided in their feelings about him with 44% rating him favorably and 44% giving him poor marks. Now his favorability is a +43 spread at 66/23. That's very much indicative of people jumping on board the train.

There's a few things in the crosstabs that really stand out. Romney's winning Tea Party voters by a 44-38 spread. But he's still losing Evangelicals to Gingrich by a 45-40 margin. That's indicative of those voters still being somewhat tepid toward Romney and while there's little chance those folks would go for Barack Obama in the fall, Romney does need to worry at least a bit about whether they're going to come out at all.

Ron Paul's headed for an embarrassing performance in his home state. Only 37% of Texas Republicans have a favorable opinion of him to 48% with a negative one and his chances of hitting 20% even with most of the rest of the field out of the picture look minimal.

Texas looks like it will remain Republican in the general election, although it might be closer than it was in 2008. Romney leads Obama by 7 points at 50-43. John McCain took the state by 13 points in 2008. Obama leads Romney 56-34 with Hispanics and 57-35 with young voters. This is not likely to be the year Texas goes Democratic, but the trends with those groups make it seem possible it will happen some day.

Romney over 50% nationally

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don't suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney's net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).

Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He's up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with 'very conservative' voters.

Romney up big, Clinton and Christie have early 2016 leads

PPP's newest- and perhaps final- poll on the national GOP race finds Mitt Romney running away with 54% of the Republican vote to 24% for Newt Gingrich and 14% for Ron Paul. Those numbers don't suggest Gingrich will have much of an ability to compete in any of the remaining primaries. Romney's net favorability is now +42 at 65/23, a 23 point improvement from a month ago when he was at +19 (54/35).

Romney is now winning all of the groups that he had struggled with over the course of the primary season. He's up 47-35 on Gingrich with Tea Partiers, 50-30 with Evangelicals, and 48-33 with 'very conservative' voters. The most striking number in the poll may be Romney's 72/16 favorability with Tea Party voters. That's definitely indicative of a party base ready to get on the same page.

Since the primary's gotten boring and there's a glut of Obama/Romney polls out there we decided to skip ahead and take a super early look at the 2016 primaries.

The Democratic nomination at this point is Hillary Clinton's for the taking if she wants it. She has an amazing 86/10 favorability rating with Democratic voters. In a dream field Clinton gets 57% to 14 for Joe Biden, 6% for Elizabeth Warren, 5% for Andrew Cuomo, 3% for Russ Feingold, 2% for Mark Warner, and 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer.

Clinton's appeal to the various different constituencies of the Democratic Party is pretty universal. She's at 58% with 'very liberal' voters, 56% with moderates, 60% with women, 52% with men, 59% with whites, 54% with African Americans, 51% with Hispanics, 64% with seniors, and 44% with young voters.

Romney leads in North Carolina

Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich's support may be drying up most places, but he's still got enough in North Carolina to potentially cost Rick Santorum a victory in a state that's an absolute must win for him.

Mitt Romney's leading in North Carolina with 34% to 30% for Santorum, 17% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich dropped out of the race Santorum would take the lead with 42% to 38% for Romney and 10% for Paul. Gingrich is definitely playing a spoiler role in North Carolina.

Compared to a PPP poll two weeks ago Romney's gained 4 points while Santorum's stayed in place, suggesting an increasing willingness for the GOP base to unify around Romney in the wake of his wins in Maryland and Wisconsin last week.

Romney holds small lead in NC

Newt Gingrich's support may be drying up most places, but he's still got enough in North Carolina to potentially cost Rick Santorum a victory in a state that's an absolute must win for him.

Mitt Romney's leading in North Carolina with 34% to 30% for Santorum, 17% for Gingrich, and 11% for Ron Paul. But if Gingrich dropped out of the race Santorum would take the lead with 42% to 38% for Romney and 10% for Paul. Gingrich is definitely playing a spoiler role in North Carolina.

Compared to a PPP poll two weeks ago Romney's gained 4 points while Santorum's stayed in place, suggesting an increasing willingness for the GOP base to unify around Romney in the wake of his wins in Maryland and Wisconsin last week.

Romney's making serious in roads with the groups that have provided Santorum's base of support. For instance with Tea Party voters what was a 10 point lead for Santorum a couple weeks ago is only 2 points at 32-30. There's been a similar shift with Evangelicals, among whom Santorum's once 10 point lead is also down to 2 points at 34-32.  Meanwhile Romney's winning by a whooping 41-9 spread with moderate voters and has his requisite strong support with seniors at 46-23.