PPP's new Ohio poll finds Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton 42-39 in the state, with Gary Johnson at 6% and Jill Stein at 2%. Voters who support either Johnson or Stein or are undecided in the full field go to Clinton by an 18 point margin if they had to pick between just Clinton and Trump, making the head to head match up a 45/45 tie.
When PPP last polled Ohio in June Clinton led 44/40. The tightening of the race has come completely thanks to Trump consolidating his support among Republican voters. Where he had only a 66/15 advantage with them in June, he's now ahead 82/9. Clinton's actually seen some consolidation with her base as well, going from a 76/13 lead with Democrats last time to now 84/11. Independents have remained completely steady- Clinton was up 39/38 with them in June, and she's up 41/40 with them now. Trump's 'bump' is the normal unification of his party base following its convention.
There's one big finding in this poll that bodes quite well for Clinton moving forward. 48% of voters in the state say they'd choose Barack Obama if the choice was between him and Trump, to only 44% who say they'd go with Trump. And among voters who are undecided in a Clinton/Trump head to head, there is a 30 point preference for Obama over Trump. That suggests that Clinton may have more room to grow than Trump in Ohio in the weeks ahead- and also that the President may be the best surrogate she has out on the campaign trail.
The convention does seem to have been a success in Ohio though- 43% of voters in the state think it was a success for the GOP to 38% who think it was a failure. And 68% of voters in the state are glad the convention was held in Ohio to only 13% who wish it would have been held somewhere. One clear takeaway from our post convention polling is that Trump's family may be the best surrogates he has. Trump's children get a collective 51/21 favorability rating from voters in Ohio, and voters appear to be pretty nonplussed by Melania's plagiarism scandal as she comes in at 43/30 favorability. Among the political figures who spoke at the convention Ben Carson (49/34 favorability) and Rudy Giuliani (45/33) fare well with Ohioans while Newt Gingrich (38/42) and Chris Christie (32/46) don't do as hot.
The biggest loser from the convention is Ted Cruz though. He has an 18/65 favorability rating with Ohio voters, making him by far and away the least popular figure in our poll. Even among Republicans he's at just 23/61. We asked GOP voters who they would support in a hypothetical primary contest between Trump and Cruz, and Trump wins out 61-19.