PPP's newest national poll continues to find the Presidential race shaping up pretty similarly to how the 2012 contest played out, with Hillary Clinton holding a 4 point lead that matches Barack Obama's final margin of victory last time around. Clinton leads with 45% to 41% for Donald Trump with Gary Johnson at 5% and Jill Stein at 2%. The third party candidates are drawing their support equally from Clinton and Trump, and in a head to head contest Clinton's lead remains 4 points at 48/44.
The race is shaping up pretty much as you would expect along demographic lines. Clinton leads 51/36 with women, 82/13 with Hispanics, 91/5 with African Americans, and 57/28 with young voters. Trump leads 48/37 with men, 51/32 with whites, and 51/36 with seniors. Clinton has a 39/35 advantage with independents. Trump's actually getting more crossover support with 10% of Democrats to Clinton's 7% of Republicans. That's partially because of some Bernie Sanders fans continuing to hold out from giving their support to Clinton- among Democrats and independents with a favorable opinion of Sanders 79% are voting for Clinton to 7% for Trump, 3% for Stein, and 2% for Johnson with 9% remaining undecided. If Clinton could even win over just half of those folks her support would go up to 49% and give her an 8 point lead.
Donald Trump's a below average Republican candidate, but that doesn't mean the party's voters have any desire to ditch him as the nominee. On the generic Presidential ballot a Democrat leads a Republican just 45/44. Given Clinton's 45/41 lead she's getting the level of support you would expect the Democratic candidate to have, while Trump is performing 3 points below that threshold. Nevertheless Trump has a 71/20 favorability rating with Republican voters, and 67% still say they want him to be the party's nominee to only 24% who say they'd prefer to see him replaced with someone else. Our national poll in early May found 72% of Republicans were 'comfortable' with Trump as their candidate to 21% who said they weren't so despite everything that's happened over the last 7 weeks there's been only a nominal increase in Republicans wanting to drop Trump.
Trump's made a lot of comments about voters being ready to be done with President Obama but we find that if voters got to pick between the two 52% would rather have Obama as President to just 43% for Trump. Those numbers show why it's smart for Clinton to tie herself closely to Obama- if she's seen as a continuation of the current administration that helps her a good deal in relation to Trump rather than hurting her. Among voters who are undecided or supporting a third party candidate right now 43% would rather have Obama as President to only 22% for Trump so if those folks end up voting that way in November it would give Clinton a 2 or 3 point boost relative to her current lead.
It's a simple reality that both of this year's Presidential candidates are unpopular. Clinton's favorability is 39/54, and Trump is even worse off at 35/58. This has given rise to the 'Giant Meteor for President' movement, and we find that the Meteor would poll at 13%- far more support than the third party candidates actually on the ballot- with Clinton at 43% and Trump at 38%. The Meteor is particularly appealing to independent voters, functionally in a three way tie at 27% to 35% for Clinton and 31% for Trump. Maybe that's who the Libertarians should have nominated.