Public Policy Polling

Hillary leads Dem 2016 field among Massachusetts voters

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s newest Massachusetts poll finds Hillary Clinton leading among 2016 Democratic primary contenders. Clinton got the support of 55% of Bay Staters, compared to 17% for Joe Biden, 4% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% for Martin O’Malley and negligible support for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner. Home-state contenders Elizabeth Warren and Deval Patrick each received 4%.

“It says a lot about the universal desire for Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic candidate in 2016 that she’s over 50% in Massachusetts even with two home state officials in the mix,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

On matters of state politics, Massachusetts voters are somewhat divided. 48% approve of Governor Deval Patrick’s job performance, to 41% who disapprove. This is very close to the 48%-38% spread PPP found last October, suggesting Patrick’s leadership after the Boston bombing hasn’t much changed voters’ perceptions of him. Elizabeth Warren receives a similarly split verdict; 44% approve of her job performance, and 39% disapprove.

Dems favored for MA-Gov.—unless Brown runs

Raleigh, N.C. – It’s more than a year and a half out from the 2014 Massachusetts gubernatorial election, and the indecision of voters in PPP’s latest look at the contest reflects that.  At least 17% and as much as 48% of voters are undecided in 21 match-ups PPP tested in this very unsettled race.

But the general picture is no surprise in this deep blue state: Democrats have a slight edge unless Scott Brown is the Republican nominee.  53% see Brown favorably and 35% unfavorably, and he earns 43-49% of the vote, with leads of four to 18 points against the seven Democrats PPP tested.  Yet those Democrats lead the other two Republicans tested—2010 gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker and failed 2012 congressional and 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate Richard Tisei—in almost all the other head-to-heads.

SC-1 a toss-up, momentum with Sanford

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin.

Markey leads by 4 in Massachusetts special

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's first poll of the general election in the Massachusetts Senate special finds a close race, with Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by a 44-40 margin.

Gomez is starting out as a pretty popular candidate, with 41% of voters rating him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. Beyond having good numbers with Republicans he's at 42/24 with independents, and actually seen narrowly positively even by Democrats at 33/32. Voters meanwhile are more divided on Markey, with 44% holding a positive view of him to 41% with a negative one. He's at 31/50 with independents.

For a Republican to be competitive in Massachusetts they need to win independents by a hefty margin and get a fair amount of crossover support from Democrats, and right now Gomez is doing both of those things. He's up 47/31 with independents and winning over 21% of Democratic voters. Both those numbers suggest that some folks who supported Stephen Lynch in the primary are being a little reticent about supporting Markey in the general.

Hillary Clinton would be dominant in New Hampshire in 2016

Raleigh, N.C. – If Hillary Clinton runs for president in 2016, she would likely clear the Democratic primary field in New Hampshire and could put the general election swing state out of reach for Republicans, according to PPP’s latest poll.

In a nine-way Democratic primary contest, Clinton captures 68% support, followed distantly by 12% for Joe Biden, 9% for someone else or not sure, 5% for Elizabeth Warren, 3% for Andrew Cuomo, 2% for Deval Patrick, 1% for Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O’Malley, and less than 1% for Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner.

In general election match-ups, Clinton would lead Rand Paul by 11 points, 52% to 41%, and Marco Rubio by 14 points, 52% to 38%. She holds sizeable leads with moderate voters against Paul (68/20) and Rubio (67/18).

Hassan riding high in New Hampshire, safe for 2014 re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for  re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election.

Hassan has a +19 job approval rating with 50% of voters approving and 31% disapproving of her performance. Democrats (80/8) and independents (47/29) approve of Hassan, who also nabs 18% support from Republicans. She has 14 to 20 point leads over five possible GOP opponents. She leads Jeb Bradley 52/38, Chris Sununu 53/37, Ted Gastas 51/35, Frank Guinta 54/36 and Kevin Smith 52/32. None of these potential candidates have a positive favorability rating with New Hampshire voters.

Colorado voters support gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado voters like the civil unions bill the legislature passed earlier this year, supporting it by a 50/38 margin. But they'd also like to take it a step further, supporting full marriage rights for same sex couples by a 51/43 spread. Voters under 30 favor it by a 74/17 margin.

Although he is a strong favorite for reelection as Governor next year, there's not a lot of enthusiasm in Colorado for a 2016 John Hickenlooper Presidential bid. Only 21% of voters in the state think he should run to 65% who think he should not, and even among Democrats just 30% would like to see him run with 48% dissenting. Hickenlooper does hold a narrow 47/45 advantage over Rand Paul and Marco Rubio in hypothetical match ups. But even without the benefit of home state advantage Hillary Clinton does slightly better than Hickenlooper in the state, leading Paul 48/45 and Rubio 48/44.

Colbert Busch expands lead in South Carolina special

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll on the special election in South Carolina finds Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch expanding her lead to 9 points over Mark Sanford at 50/41. Green Party candidate Eugene Platt polls at 3%.

Colbert Busch's lead is on the rise for several reasons. She has a 51/35 advantage with independents. She's winning over 19% of Republicans, while losing just 7% of Democrats. And it also seems that after last week's revelations about Sanford that a lot of GOP voters are planning to just stay at home- while the district supported Mitt Romney by 18 points last fall, those planning to turn out for the special election voted for him by only a 5 point spread.

Republican-sponsored bills draw public opposition in NC

Raleigh, N.C. – Pat McCrory continues to be popular despite strong disapproval of the Republicans running state government, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll.

With 49% approving and 36% disapproving of his job performance, voters still have a positive view of McCrory—in large part because 31% of registered Democrats approve of him. Public opinion of Republicans as a whole running state government is roughly reversed with just 38% approving and 52% disapproving. Just 20% of voters approve of the job the General Assembly is doing in Raleigh, while 56% are opposed. Democrats lead the general state legislative ballot 45% to 41% against Republicans.

Voters don’t support any of the GOP-sponsored bills that PPP tested. They narrowly oppose making Christianity the official state religion with 45% against the bill and 42% in favor, including 53% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats and 30% of independents.

Democrats lead the way in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP's newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.