Public Policy Polling

Quinn in deep trouble, Dems favor Madigan

Raleigh, N.C. – Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn enters his re-election cycle as the most unpopular governor that PPP has measured, with only a quarter of his state’s voters approving of his job performance and nearly two-thirds disapproving.  He starts out as a slight underdog in hypothetical match-ups against three unknown potential Republican challengers, getting no more than 40% of the vote.  Should those candidates become better-known, however, Quinn would probably be in perilous position.

Quinn trails State Sen. Kirk Dillard by seven points (37-44), and state Treasurer Dan Rutherford by four (39-43), and leads rising star Congressman Aaron Schock by only a point (40-39).  But 61-65% of voters have no opinion of the three would-be governors, so they have more to gain than does the incumbent.

Quinn extremely unpopular, Madigan would start out favored

If Pat Quinn is the Democratic candidate for Governor of Illinois in 2014 Democrats may have a hard time holding onto the office. Only 25% of voters in the state approve of the job he's doing to 64% who disapprove, making him the most unpopular Governor PPP has polled on anywhere in the country this year.

Quinn would trail in hypothetical match ups against Republican State Senator Kirk Dillard (44/37) and Treasurer Dan Rutherford (43/39). He would top Congressman Aaron Schock only narrowly, 40/39. Quinn's unpopularity puts the Republicans in a position where they could win despite the fact that none of them are very well known- Rutherford has 39% name recognition, and both Dillard and Schock are at 35%.

Quinn may not even make it to the general election though. Even among Democratic primary voters he has just a 40% approval rating, with 43% of voters disapproving of him. In a hypothetical head to head with Bill Daley, Quinn would trail 37-34. And in a contest against Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Quinn would start out at a 64/20 deficit.

Madigan is really the x factor in this race. She's a popular figure with 48% of voters rating her positively to 32% with an unfavorable opinion. She's very well regarded within her own party (66/15), but she's also seen favorably by a higher than normal 24% of Republicans. In addition to having a big lead over Quinn, Madigan would also be very strong in the general. She holds leads of 9 points over both Dillard and Rutherford at 46-37 and would have an 8 point advantage over Schock at 46-38.