Public Policy Polling

Kitzhaber, Merkley lead potential foes

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Oregon poll finds Governor John Kitzhaber and Senator Jeff Merkley relatively popular and leading every Republican we tested against them.

Kitzhaber and Merkley have both become more popular over the second half of this year. Kitzhaber's approval rating is a +9 spread at 50/41. That's up 3 points from June when it was +6 at 45/39. Merkley's seen a more dramatic improvement in his standing. On our last poll he was at just a +3 approval spread (37/34) but now he's improved 12 points to +15 (44/29). Those are the best approval numbers we've found for him since he took office.

There are two Republicans who could be competitive with Kitzhaber and Merkley if they decided to mount 2014 campaigns: former Senator Gordon Smith and Congressman Greg Walden. Smith would trail Kitzhaber 47-42 and Merkley 47-43. That 4 point lead for Merkley over Smith is nearly identical to his 3 point win over him in 2008. Walden seems an incredibly unlikely candidate given his new leadership role but he would also come within single digits of both candidates, trailing Kitzhaber 49-40 and Merkley 47-42.

Oregon Poll

PPP's newest Oregon poll finds Governor John Kitzhaber and Senator Jeff Merkley relatively popular and leading every Republican we tested against them.

Kitzhaber and Merkley have both become more popular over the second half of this year. Kitzhaber's approval rating is a +9 spread at 50/41. That's up 3 points from June when it was +6 at 45/39. Merkley's seen a more dramatic improvement in his standing. On our last poll he was at just a +3 approval spread (37/34) but now he's improved 12 points to +15 (44/29). Those are the best approval numbers we've found for him since he took office.

There are two Republicans who could be competitive with Kitzhaber and Merkley if they decided to mount 2014 campaigns: former Senator Gordon Smith and Congressman Greg Walden. Smith would trail Kitzhaber 47-42 and Merkley 47-43. That 4 point lead for Merkley over Smith is nearly identical to his 3 point win over him in 2008. Walden seems an incredibly unlikely candidate given his new leadership role but he would also come within single digits of both candidates, trailing Kitzhaber 49-40 and Merkley 47-42. Even if it's not this time Walden is probably the Republicans' best hope for winning a statewide office any time in the future- he has a +18 favorability at 39/21 and is even seen positively by Democrats at 32/24.

We also tested a trio of second tier potential Republican candidates against Kitzhaber and Merkley but none of them come anywhere close. Allen Alley trails Kitzhaber 52-37 and Merkley 53-36. Bruce Hanna trails Kitzhaber 52-33 and Merkley 52-34. Bruce Starr trails Kitzhaber 53-31 and Merkley 52-32. It's early but for now it looks like Kitzhaber and Merkley are in pretty decent shape barring a Smith candidacy.

Oregon voters are ready to legalize same sex marriage. 77% think they should be able to have a say on the issue, and 54% say they would vote to legalize it with 40% opposed. Independents support it by a 64/33 margin and there are more Republicans (17%) ready to make it legal than there are Democrats (15%) who aren't. Voters under 45 support it by a 68/30 spread.

Other notes from Oregon:

Oregon divided on gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Oregon narrowly favors legal gay marriage, with 46% supporting it and 45% opposed. Democrats support it 74-20, Republicans oppose it 11-80 and independents oppose it 38-48. Men oppose legalization 45-48 but women support it 48-42. The standard generational gap for this issue is present in that voters age 18-29 support gay marriage 57-33 and voters age 30-45 support it 52-35, while voters age 46-65 oppose it 45-49 and those over the age of 65 oppose it 37-53. When voters are asked whether they support full gay marriage, civil unions only or no legal recognition at all of gay couples, 44% support gay marriage, 30% support civil unions but not gay marriage, and just 23% say there should be no legal recognition of gay marriage.

Voters narrowly say marijuana use should not be legalized, with 43% supporting legalization and 46% opposing it. Men support marijuana legalization 47-46 but women oppose it 39-45. Democrats support legalization 56-30, Republicans overwhelmingly oppose it 19-75 and independents favor it 47-38.

Oregon Miscellany

-Oregon voters would be closely divided if they had a vote in 2014 on legalizing gay marriage or marijuana. 46% think gay marriage should be legal to 45% who think it should be illegal.  And 43% think marijuana usage should be legal to 46% who believe it should not. In both cases voter under 65 support liberalizing the laws, but seniors are so strong in their opposition that it becomes very close overall.

A push to legalize civil unions in Oregon wouldn't be terribly controversial. 74% of voters in the state support either gay marriage or civil unions, including 53% of Republicans, with only 23% opposed to any sort of legal recognition at all for same sex couples.

-Oregon is not a big professional sports state. 40% don't have a favorite MLB team and 34% don't have a preferred NFL franchise. The quasi local Seattle Mariners lead the way among MLB teams at 16%, followed by the Red Sox at 10%, Cubs and Giants at 7%, Yankees at 6%, Braves at 5%, Dodgers at 4%, A's at 3%, and Padres at 2%.

42% of Oregonians say they would like to have an MLB team of their own in the state to 31% opposed to the concept. But only 19% would support the use of any taxpayer money to build a ballpark for such a team with 68% opposed so it's pretty unlikely there will be a Portland Beaver franchise in the majors any time soon.

Speaking to their new status as America's Team, the Packers come out as the most popular NFL team in the state at 16% to 15% for the Seahawks, 10% for the 49ers, 8% for the Cowboys, 6% for the Broncos and Raiders, 3% for the Giants, and 2% for the Chargers.

31% of voters in the state identify themselves as Oregon fans to 27% who pull for Oregon State. This is one college sports rivalry with a huge partisan divide- Democrats prefer the Ducks by a 38-21 spread, while Republicans go for the Beavers 36-23.

Walden could upset Kitzhaber or Merkley in ‘14

Raleigh, N.C. – John Kitzhaber and Jeff Merkley will both be on the ballot in two years, and both are in tenuous position with voters right now, and would struggle to win re-election over at least one little-known but well-liked Republican in this Democratic-leaning state.

Even though he leads by margins of up to 15 points, Gov. Kitzhaber cannot do better than 46% of the vote, similar to his 45% raw approval rating.  He leads the best-known and most popular of the bunch, Congressman Greg Walden, by only one point (42-41).  That rises to ten against state GOP chairman Allen Alley (46-36), 13 versus State House Co-Speaker Bruce Hanna (46-33), and 15 against State Sen. Jason Atkinson (45-30).

Kitzhaber, Merkley could be vulnerable in 2014

Barack Obama has the advantage in Oregon for this fall, but there are early indications that the state could be pretty competitive in 2014.

John Kitzhaber has a 45/39 approval rating in the second year of his second go around as Governor, decent numbers but not exactly ones that will drive off strong opposition. Jeff Merkley's approval rating is only 37% a little more than half way through his first term in the Senate with 34% of voters disapproving of him. A higher than normal 29% of voters have no opinion about him one way or the other, suggesting a pretty low profile in the state.

Republicans don't have a long bench in Oregon. We tested four people in hypothetical contests against both- Congressman Greg Walden, State GOP chair Allen Alley, co-Speaker of the House Bruce Hanna, and State Senator Jason Atkinson. None of them have even 50% name recognition, but they all hold Kitzhaber and Merkley under 50% in hypothetical head to heads.

Walden is the strongest candidate out of that group. He would run basically even if he sought a promotion to either office, trailing Kitzhaber 42-41 but leading Merkley 42-40. 27% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walden to 16% with an unfavorable one, solid numbers among the small swath of the electorate that is familiar with him.

Obama slipping but still up 8 points in Oregon

Raleigh, N.C. – Like its neighbor to the north, Washington, and other former swing states that were nailbiters in 2000 and 2004, President Obama won Oregon with a dominating 16-point margin over John McCain in 2008.  Now in PPP’s latest poll, that margin has been cut in half.

Unlike in other states, Mitt Romney’s personal popularity has not budged much in Oregon since PPP last polled the state a year ago.  Nor has President Obama’s.  Because of that, the president remains at exactly 50%, but Romney has picked up four points of previously undecided voters.  Where Obama led by 12 points in the early stages of the Republican primary battle, he now leads by only eight.

Obama leads by 8 in Oregon

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney just 50-42 in Oregon, a state that he won by 16 points in 2008 and where he led by 12 points in PPP's last poll, taken almost exactly a year ago.

The main reason the state's so close is that independents have really turned against Obama, and they support Romney by a 52-30 margin. But Oregon's still a pretty strongly Democratic state and with the party base unified around Obama at 86-8 it allows him to maintain a decent sized overall lead. Obama's also getting more support across party lines than Romney is, taking 11% of the Republican vote.

Oregon voters express only tepid approval for Obama's performance in office, with 49% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove. But Romney's lack of popularity makes it hard for him to pull closer in the state. Just 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one.

Obama's approval in Oregon is remarkably unchanged over the last year. In June of 2011 his approval spread was 49/45, and his current 49/46 is basically the same. Romney's favorability numbers have improved slightly from 31/47 to their current 37/51 level.

Seattle tops popularity list of U.S. cities

Raleigh, N.C. – The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities: Oakland, CA (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), San Francisco (48-29), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

American cities favorability poll

The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities, and both are in California: Oakland (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).  In February, PPP found California to be the least popular state in the union.  It does have the 11th most popular city, though: San Francisco (48-29).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).