Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters are
leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably
be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who
are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage
should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not.
“Our experience in polling gay marriage is that if people say they’re undecided
it usually means they’re opposed to it,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public
Policy Polling. “Despite the 8 point lead for passage this should be seen as a
very close race.”
There's a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting
Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There's a major divide along
generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin,
but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.
-Maine voters are leaning towards legalizing gay marriage, but it looks like it will be probably be close. 52% of voters say that they plan to vote yes on Question 1 to 44% who are opposed. When we ask simply whether or not voters think same sex marriage should be legal, 52% say it should be while 40% think it should not. Our experience in polling these kinds of issues is that undecided usually means no so this really should be seen as a toss up with gay marriage supporters barely over the 50% mark- there's not a lot of room for error in the final seven weeks.
There's a pretty significant gender gap on this issue with women supporting Question1 58-38, while men oppose it 50/47. There's a major divide along generational lines as well with voters under 65 support it by a 56/41 margin, but those over 65 opposing it 53/41.
-Paul LePage continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 37% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He trails a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 48/40 margin, including 45/38 with independents. Of course LePage got elected in 2010 with less than 40% of the vote so if there's a strong independent candidate and that person and the Democratic candidate cannibalize each other enough LePage could continue to be really unpopular and get himself reelected anyway. Probably related to voters' unhappiness with LePage, Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot in the state by a 48/37 margin.
Raleigh, N.C. – Maine voters regret electing Republican Paul LePage Governor and would choose Independent Eliot Cutler if they could do the 2010 election over again, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. When asked who they would vote for if they could do the election over, 43% of Maine voters chose Eliot Cutler, 35% chose Paul LePage, and 19% chose Democrat Libby Mitchell. LePage suffers from a negative job approval rating, with just 41% of voters approving of his job performance and 52% disapproving.
Democrats are in strong position to make gains in the State Legislature, with 51% of voters saying they’d generally vote for Democratic candidates if the election were held today and just 37% of voters saying they’d vote for a Republican candidate. Among independent voters, 42% say they would vote for Democrats and 28% say they’d vote for a Republican.
A majority of Maine voters say same-sex marriage should be legal, by a 54-41 margin. A plurality of voters (47-32) favor a law that would allow “marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs.”
-It looks like Maine voters will reverse their 2009 decision and legalize gay marriage in the state this fall. 54% think that gay marriage should be legal to only 41% who think it should be illegal. And when we asked about the issue using the exact language voters will see on the ballot this fall, they say they're inclined to support the referendum by a 47-32 margin.
There's some indication that the exact ballot language is confusing people a little at this point. Only 67% of those who support gay marriage in general say they'll vote yes while 12% say they'll not and 21% are not sure. At the same time just 60% of those who oppose gay marriage generally say they'll vote against the proposed referendum, while 24% say they'll vote for it and 16% are not sure. My guess is at the end of the day voters will see this as a straight referendum on gay marriage regardless of what the language on the ballot says- and the 54/41 number bodes well for pro-equality voters.
Republicans' opinions are pretty much the same as they were in 2009. But Democrats' support for gay marriage has increased slightly, from 71% to 78%. And more importantly independents have gone from voting against gay marriage 52/46 three years ago to now supporting it by a 57/36 margin.
-In the wake of her retirement announcement Olympia Snowe has tied colleagues Daniel Inouye and John Barrasso for the highest approval rating PPP has ever found for a Senator. 69% of voters like the job she's doing to only 26% who disapprove. She gets her best numbers with Democrats (76/20), followed by independents (72/23), then Republicans (57/36).
Raleigh, N.C. – Olympia Snowe’s approval rating is down slightly since PPP last surveyed Maine in March, but she is still one of the most popular senators in the country. 57% approave and 36% disapprove of her job performance, a dip from 60-32. But in early tests, she beats two almost unknown possible Democratic opponents by margins of 42 and 47 points, and even well-known but less likely Democratic challengers, Rep’s Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, would fall by respective 17- and 19-point spreads.
Olympia Snowe appears to be almost unbeatable if she survives the Republican primary in the Maine Senate race next year. She leads both of her announced Democratic opponents by more than 40 points- it's 42 over Matthew Dunlap at 64-22 and 47 over Jon Hinck at 65-17.
Snowe's overall approval rating is 57/36, making her one of the most popular Senators in the country. But what makes her particularly formidable is that she's at 65/29 with independents and 58/37 with Democrats, making her stronger with both of those voter groups than she is with her own party base. She's only at 50/40 with Republicans, but if she makes it to the general election she doesn't need to worry about their votes and her crossover support should make it just about impossible for a Democrat to beat her.
This is the best indicator of how difficult it will be for one of the current Democratic candidates to beat Snowe- she leads them even with Democrats! Snowe leads Dunlap 46-37 and Hinck 47-32 with voters in their own party. Beyond that she gets 72% of the independent vote against both of them, in addition to having a united Republican base.
Olympia Snowe's prospects for winning the Republican nomination for another term as Senator from Maine are looking the best they have in two years, in what could be a sign of Tea Party fever dwindling.
In October of 2009 only 31% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 59% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. In September of 2010, only 29% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 63% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. In March of this year, only 33% of Maine GOP voters stood with Snowe, while 58% wanted to replace her with someone more conservative. After all three of those polls I thought Snowe's prospects for renomination were pretty much shot. But over the last seven months there's been a major transformation, and now 46% of primary voters in the state stand with Snowe compared to only 47% who want to replace her from the right.
Snowe's approval rating with GOP primary voters is up from 47/44 in March to now 51/37. She's pretty steady with voters describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative' and her popularity has actually declined a little bit with moderates. But she's done a better job over the last half year of wooing the far right voters who classify themselves as being 'very conservative.' They still don't like her but she's improved 23 points on the margin with them from -47 (21/68) to -24 (29/53).
Raleigh, N.C. – As PPP showed yesterday, Olympia Snowe may have a tough road surviving a primary if she chooses to run for re-election and fight for her place on the GOP ticket she has always called home. But whether she is the Republican nominee or an independent, she should be easily elected to a fourth term.
As a Republican, Snowe would top state Rep. Emily Cain, 64-20, and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli, 66-18. She takes 60-66% of independents and even 51-53% of Democrats in these matchups. If she is knocked off the GOP ballot line and makes an independent bid, Snowe would prevail with 54-57% of the vote over the four permutations of Cain, Scarcelli, and Republicans Scott D’Amboise and Andrew Ian Dodge. The Republican candidate would get 19-21% and the Democrat 13-17%. Despite her danger in the primary, Snowe still takes a 48% plurality of the GOP in any of the three-ways, along with 63-66% of independents, and 58-60% of Democrats. Voters are certainly encouraging her to run as an independent—pluralities of all three partisan groups think she fits best without a party than as either a Republican or Democrat.
Yesterday we showed that Olympia Snowe would have a very difficult time winning the Republican nomination for another term in the Senate from Maine. Our general election numbers in the state show that there is one easy way she could return to the body in 2013 though- running as an independent. In four match ups we tested that included Snowe as an independent along with a Democrat (we looked at Rosa Scarcelli and Emily Cain) and a Republican (we looked at Scott D'Amboise and Andrew Ian Dodge) she gets anywhere from 54-57% of the vote, finishing in first place with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.
Despite her mediocre numbers within her own party, Snowe's overall approval rating of 60% to 32% disapproval makes her one of the most popular Senators in the country. That's because her numbers with Democrats (67% approval) and independents (63% approval) far outrun her standing with Republicans (just 49% approval.)
Running as an independent Snowe would get her highest level of support from independents, followed by Democrats, and then by Republicans. With Scott D'Amboise as the Republican and Emily Cain as the Democrats she leads by 33 points at 54%, leading Cain by 22 with Democrats, D'Amboise by 5 with Republicans, and D'Amboise by 48 with independents. With D'Amboise as the Republican and Rosa Scarcelli as the Democrat she leads by 36 points at 56%, leading Scarcelli by 29 with Democrats, D'Amboise by 7 with Republicans, and D'Amboise by 51 with independents. With Andrew Ian Dodge as the Republican and Cain as the Democrat Snowe leads by 37 points at 56%, leading Cain by 30 with Democrats, Dodge by 8 with Republicans, and Dodge by 51 with independents. And with Dodge as the Republican and Scarcelli as the Democrat she leads by 38 points at 57%, leading Scarcelli by 33 with Democrats, Dodge by 7 with Republicans, and Dodge by 53 with independents.
If Snowe did get out of the Republican primary she leads by even wider margins in head to head match ups with the two Democrats. It's a 44 point lead over Cain at 64-20 and a 48 point lead over Scarcelli at 66-18. Snowe wins the Democratic vote even in a head to head with these Democrats- by 17 points over Cain and 22 points over Scarcelli- as well as cleaning up with the Republican and independent votes.
In the event that Snowe was taken out in the primary the match ups between the little known Republicans and the little known Democrats are close with high numbers of undecideds. Cain ties D'Amboise and leads Dodge by 2, while Scarcelli trails Dodge by 4 and D'Amboise by 7. Anywhere from 34-38% of voters aren't sure who they would vote for in each of those match ups.
If Snowe continues on as a Republican this is a race that an ambitious Democrat who doesn't have a ton to lose should really look at. Obviously if Snowe emerges as the Republican nominee you're going to lose and you're going to lose by a lot. If Snowe ends up running as an independent you're probably going to lose and you're probably going to lose by a lot. But if Snowe stays the course and gets taken out you might become Chris Coons- a guy who was willing to throw his name in the hat when it looked impossible and ended up coasting to an easy general election victory.
For Snowe there's a hard route to reelection and an easy one- it'll be interesting to see if she sticks with the hard one.
Raleigh, N.C. – Since PPP last polled Maine’s Republican primary electorate right before last November’s election, Senator Olympia Snowe’s troubles have only grown, with an even larger majority of her base thinking her too liberal and eager to nominate someone to her right. On top of that, two candidates have announced bids to oppose her re-nomination. The problem for these challengers is that still few people know who they are, and they are not well-liked by those who do. So Snowe still has a significant plurality in an early test of the primary race. But that election is more than a year away, and Andrew Ian Dodge and Scott D’Amboise still have plenty of time to make their case.
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