Public Policy Polling

Oil Drilling Support Nearly Unanimous in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – While support for oil exploration off the coasts of various states sharply decreased in the aftermath of the BP oil spill, support in Louisiana remained very high, measuring at 77% support, to only 12% opposition, in PPP’s last poll of the state in June.  While support has nearly returned to previous levels elsewhere, support in Louisiana has, if it were possible, also increased, to 81%, with only 9% not in favor.  By a 32-21 margin, voters say the spill has actually made them more supportive of drilling off the state’s coastline than less supportive, with 48% saying it has made no difference on their opinion.  In June, the “less supportive” group edged “more supportive,” 31-28.

Polling on the Spill

The oil spill in the Gulf may be mostly out of the headlines now but Louisiana voters aren't getting any less mad at Barack Obama about his handling of it. Only 32% give Obama good marks for his actions in the aftermath of the spill, while 61% disapprove.

Louisianans are feeling more and more that George W. Bush's leadership on Katrina was better than Obama's on the spill. 54% think Bush did the superior job of helping the state through a crisis to 33% who pick Obama. That 21 point margin represents a widening since PPP asked the same question in June and found Bush ahead by a 15 point margin. Bush beats Obama 87-2 on that score with Republicans and 42-30 with independents, while Obama has just a 65-24 advantage with Democrats.

Louisianans are generally softening with time in their feelings about how Bush handled Katrina. Almost as many, 44%, now approve of his actions on it as the 47% who disapprove. Of course it should be noted that many of the people most negatively impacted by the federal government's handling of Katrina aren't in Louisiana to answer polls about it now.

If there is a political 'winner' in the aftermath of the oil spill it's Bobby Jindal. 70% of Louisiana voters are happy with how he handled the spill to only 20% giving him bad marks and his overall approval rating of 58% puts him at the top of the heap for Governors and Senators PPP's polled on this year. Specifically on the issue of the spill 89% of Republicans, 76% of independents, and even a 47% plurality of Democrats think he did a good job.

One thing very clear is that the spill hasn't done much to change Louisianans' opinions on offshore drilling. 82% of voters in the state support it with only 9% opposed and only 21% say the spill made them less supportive of drilling while 32% say it actually made them more so.

Full results here

Support for drilling back on the rise

It's becoming increasingly clear in our polling in a few key states that much of the shift in public opinion about offshore drilling because of the oil spill was temporary. Polls we did in Florida and Louisiana over the weekend and North Carolina earlier this month all show support for drilling increasing by pretty good amounts compared to the beginning of the summer.

In Louisiana, despite being at the heart of the spill, voters never showed much ambivalence about drilling. When we polled there in June 77% of voters supported it with 12% opposed for a net +65. Still that margin has widened even further now to +73 with 82% of voters favoring it and 9% against.

In Florida and North Carolina though voters had turned against offshore drilling by the middle of July. Last month we found 51% in Florida opposed to 39% in support and in North Carolina we found 46% opposed and 42% in support. Now we find voters in both states back in support of drilling- 48% for to 44% against in Florida and 50% for to 39% against in North Carolina.

Support for drilling in North Carolina is still down a good bit from what it was pre-spill and although we don't have historical data in Florida and Louisiana I imagine the same is true in both of those places as well. But it doesn't look like the spill has caused a major, lasting shift in public opinion about drilling at least in those states.

Rubio Leads Crist By 1 with Greene, 8 with Meek

Raleigh, N.C. – Charlie Crist had better hope Jeff Greene pulls off a miraculous comeback in his primary against Kendrick Meek if the Republican-cum-independent governor hopes to edge GOP nominee Marco Rubio in the general election Senate contest.  Among likely voters, Rubio has a slim 37-36 lead over Crist if Greene is the Democratic nominee, but Rubio pulls ahead 40-32 if Meek wins tonight.

Greene gets only 13% of the vote, with Libertarian Alex Snitker at 4%, and 10% undecided.  But Crist’s Democratic support tanks if Meek emerges victorious; Meek would get 17%, with Snitker at 3%, and only 8% undecided.  Crist pulls a 48% plurality of Democrats, with a 2:1 lead over Greene’s 24%, Rubio’s 10%, Snitker’s 5%, and 13% undecided.  But Meek narrowly edges Crist among Democrats, 39-38, with Rubio at 11%, Snitker at 2%, and only 10% undecided.  Rubio also does slightly better among Republicans with Meek in the race, 69-20 over Crist, versus 64-21 with Greene.  Crist leads independents by the same 16-point margin over Rubio regardless of the Democratic choice.  In fact, he gets a slim majority or near majority, 50% or 49%.

Majority Again Supports Oil Drilling in N.C., Dems Amp Up

Raleigh, N.C. – With the worst of the Gulf oil spill likely over and the beach tourism season heading into its home stretch, 50% of North Carolinians once again support drilling for oil off the state’s coast.  39% are opposed, a 15-point swing from the 42-46 negative mark in late June and a return to the similar 48-39 showing in early June.  Republicans have moved 20 points in the last month, from 59-31 to 69-21.  Independents have moved 14 points, from 46-45 to 53-38.  Even Democrats have moved 13 points, from 27-58 to 34-52.

Support for drilling in NC back on the rise

A month after a plurality of North Carolinians said for the first time that they were opposed to offshore drilling our newest poll of the state finds a majority once again in support of it, raising questions about how permanent the change in public opinion about drilling will be once the spill in the Gulf has left the headlines.

Voters in the state say they support drilling by a 50/39 margin. While that's still well down from a poll taken in April right before the spill that showed 61/26 approval, it's up a good deal from last month's poll that found 46% of North Carolinians in opposition to only 42% supportive.

The renewed support for drilling is coming across the board politically. Republicans have gone from 59% to 69% favor, independents have gone from 46% to 53%, and Democrats have gone from 27% to 34%.

Particularly interesting are the views of people who live in the eastern part of the state along the coast. In northeastern North Carolina there is 55% support and in southeastern North Carolina there is 52% support, in both cases outpacing the amount of support there is statewide. That would seem to suggest coastal residents are much less concerned about being directly impacted by the spill in the Gulf than they might have been a month ago.

I don't know if the popularity of offshore drilling in North Carolina will ever be quite what it was before but it's clear that for a lot of residents opposition to it was shortlived and the numbers will probably continue to move closer to what they were before, especially if there's a rise in gas prices.

Full results here

Off Shore Drilling: Crist Sides Florida Voters

Yesterday in a special session of the Florida legislature, Republican lawmakers shot down Governor Crist’s proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution that would ban off shore drilling. While Crist may have lost the battle, he may have come out on the right side of debate. Like the Governor, Florida voters have changed their minds about off shore drilling, they now oppose drilling 51:39%.

Crist sided with Floridians and it might help him gain votes and win the election.

It’s true Florida Republicans support drilling 54:36. But independents oppose drilling 53:39 and Democrats oppose drilling 65:23. Moderates don’t support off shore drilling either 58 to 34%. Since leaving the Republican Party, Crist has been drawing more support from Democrats and moderates. This is another sign of Crist’s truly severed ties with the Republican Party. He has set out to represent Floridians and have an ideologically diverse base of supporters. This was another good move in that direction.

Florida Congressional Republicans are successfully representing Florida Republicans but that may not be a successful campaign strategy.

North Carolinians Now Oppose Oil Drilling

Raleigh, N.C. – At the height of the beach tourism season, there has been a drastic reversal in North Carolinians’ attitudes toward oil drilling off the state’s coast, with a plurality now in opposition.  PPP last polled on the subject in early June, when a near majority were in favor.

Last month, 48% supported drilling off North Carolina’s coastline, and 39% were against it.  Now those numbers have almost flipped, with 46% opposed and 42% in favor—a 13-point marginal shift in 24 days. 

NC turns against drilling

Three short months ago more than 60% of North Carolinians supported offshore drilling. Now a plurality of voters in the state oppose it. 46% express opposition to drilling off the coast of the state while 42% support it.

Public opinion has been shifting more and more against drilling with each passing month since the spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The April poll, pre-spill, showed only 26% of voters opposed to drilling. That increased to 38% in May, then 39% in June, and now 46% in July.

Compared to the April survey support for drilling has dropped 25 points with Democrats, 19 points with independents, and 14 points with Republicans. Where a majority of Democrats previously supported drilling they are now strongly opposed to it by a 27/58 margin. Independents are split almost evenly, 46/45, and 59% of GOP voters continue to support it.

It is unusual for public opinion on a particular issue to shift this rapidly in such a short period of time. But an event like the spill in the Gulf can have a major impact on people's thinking.

While opinion on drilling itself is still relatively divided, there's less ambiguity when it comes to whether voters buy into Republican Congressional candidate Bill Randall's theory that the oil spill was intentionally caused by the federal government. Only 11% of voters in the state believe that with 74% dismissing the idea and 15% saying they're not sure. Even among Republicans just 17% buy into that particular line of thinking.

Full results here

Texas Voters Side with Obama, Against Barton

Raleigh, N.C. – Texas voters are giving Congressman Joe Barton some heat for his recent comments in a U.S. House committee hearing in which he expressed shame for how BP has been treated by the White House.

Barton personally apologized to BP CEO Tony Hayward for what he termed a “shakedown,” when President Obama asked BP to set up a $20 billion escrow fund to compensate oil spill victims.  Only 18% of Texans believe BP deserved that apology; 65% think they did not.  Independents, at 75%, are the strongest partisan group opposing the apology, greater than the 65% of Democrats who say the same.  Even 56% of Republicans join them.  Similarly, 64% think Obama was right to have requested that BP establish that fund, to 27% who think he was not.  Fully 88% of Texas Democrats agree with Obama’s move, along with 59% of independents.  Even 45% of Republicans do, to 41% who do not.