Polls

New Mexico for gay marriage

| Dustin Ingalls

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Raleigh, N.C. –
New Mexico joins its northern neighbor Colorado and nearby Nevada in a growing list of Southwestern states in favor of same-sex marriage.  When PPP last polled the state in June, voters were against legalizing it by a 42-48 margin.  In the intervening half-year, opinion has moved eight points, with 45% now wanting gay couples to be able to legally marry in the state, and 43% still against it.  The reason for the shift is that Democrats (from 34% to 28%) and independents (44% to 37%) have lowered their opposition by six or seven points.  Further, two-thirds of New Mexicans also still favor these relationships being recognized with at least the legal equality of civil unions.  That includes 78% of Democrats, 71% of independents, and 41% of Republicans.

First-term Gov. Susana Martinez’s approval rating is down a tick from the last survey, but she is still one of the more popular governors in the country.  50% approve and 39% disapprove of her job performance, down from 52-37 in the June poll.  The majority Democrats are holding at an identical 32-56 spread, an unusual level of crossover support in this environment, and Republicans have inched up a bit on her, from 84-10 to 85-8.  The entire negative movement is with independents, from 51-32 to 48-38.

Despite being well-liked by her constituents, Martinez would not necessarily be a boon to the GOP presidential ticket as a running mate.  Friday’s release showed President Obama routing five potential Republican opponents, and only 23% say Martinez would make them more likely to vote for the GOP nominee, with 36% saying she would actually make them less likely, and 41% professing it would make no difference.  Independents fall at 19-39.

New Mexicans do not particularly follow professional baseball or football.  38% cannot say who their favorite MLB team is, and 41% root for no one in the NFL.

PPP surveyed 500 New Mexico voters from December 11th to 13th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.  This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below.  Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Susana Martinez’s job performance?
Approve…………….. 50%
Disapprove………… 39%
Not sure ……………. 11%

Q2 If Susana Martinez was the Republican
candidate for Vice President next year, would
that make you more or less likely to vote for the
Republican Presidential nominee, or would it
not make a difference?
More likely…………. 23%
Less likely …………. 36%
Wouldn’t make a
difference …………..41%

Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Tom
Udall’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .51%
Disapprove…………. .33%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Jeff
Bingaman’s job performance?
Approve …………….. .54%
Disapprove…………. .32%
Not sure …………….. .14%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bill Richardson?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 27%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 63%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Pete Domenici?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 56%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q7 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal …………………. .45%
Illegal ………………… .43%
Not sure …………….. .12%

Q8 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple’s relationship?
Gay couples should
be allowed to legally
marry…………………..42%
Gay couples should
be allowed to form
civil unions but not
marry…………………..25%
There should be no
legal recognition of
a gay couple’s
relationship ………….32%
Not sure …………….. . 2%

Q9 Do you support or oppose the goals of the
Occupy Wall Street movement?
Support ……………… .42%
Oppose ……………… .37%
Not sure …………….. .21%

Q10 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea
Party movement?
Support ……………… .34%
Oppose ……………… .50%
Not sure …………….. .16%

Q11 Do you have a higher opinion of the Occupy
Wall Street movement or the Tea Party
movement?
Occupy Wall Street .44%
Tea Party …………… .38%
Not sure …………….. .18%

Q12 Would you say that you are more a New
Mexico or New Mexico State fan, or are you
not a fan of either school?
New Mexico ……………………………………………. 42%
New Mexico St………………………………………… 18%
Neither school…………………………………………. 41%

Q13 Would you say your favorite Major League
Baseball team is the Arizona Diamondbacks,
Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Colorado
Rockies, Houston Astros, Los Angeles
Dodgers, New York Yankees, or Texas
Rangers?
Diamondbacks ………………………………………… 10%
Braves …………………………………………………… 4%
Cubs ……………………………………………………… 13%
Rockies………………………………………………….. 10%
Astros ……………………………………………………. 1%
Dodgers …………………………………………………. 8%
Yankees …………………………………………………. 13%
Rangers …………………………………………………. 4%
Someone else/Not a baseball fan ………………. 38%

Q14 Would you say that your favorite NFL team is
the Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys,
Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston
Texans, Oakland Raiders, San Diego
Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, or someone
else?
Cardinals………………………………………………… 5%
Cowboys………………………………………………… 17%
Broncos………………………………………………….. 17%
Packers………………………………………………….. 10%
Texans …………………………………………………… 1%
Raiders ………………………………………………….. 4%
Chargers………………………………………………… 2%
49ers……………………………………………………… 3%
Someone else/Not a football fan………………… 41%

Q15 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain…………………………………………… 37%
Barack Obama………………………………………… 53%
Someone else/Don’t remember …………………. 10%

Q16 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ……………………………………………… 14%
Somewhat liberal …………………………………….. 16%
Moderate………………………………………………… 30%
Somewhat conservative……………………………. 22%
Very conservative ……………………………………. 17%

Q17 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ………………………………………………….. 52%
Man……………………………………………………….. 48%

Q18 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ……………………………………………….. 52%
Republican……………………………………………… 29%
Independent/Other…………………………………… 19%

Q19 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2.
If other, press 3.
Hispanic…………………………………………………. 35%
White …………………………………………………….. 55%
Other……………………………………………………… 10%

Q20 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29………………………………………………….. 16%
30 to 45………………………………………………….. 26%
46 to 65………………………………………………….. 38%
Older than 65………………………………………….. 20%

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