Public Policy Polling

Bachmann and Romney neck-and-neck in NC and NJ

Raleigh, N.C. – As is true nationally, Michele Bachmann has risen to become Mitt Romney’s chief competitor for the presidential nomination in North Carolina. In June, Romney led Herman Cain 25-21 with Palin out of the race. Cain has lost more than half his support, but Bachmann has risen in his place, and Romney now holds only a 23-22 lead over Bachmann. Bachmann is followed by Rick Perry with 14%, Cain and Newt Gingrich with 9%, Ron Paul with 6%, Tim Pawlenty with 5%, and Jon Huntsman with just 2%. Bachmann has a modest 26-17 edge over Romney with very conservative voters, though Romney makes up for this with a 30-18 lead among somewhat conservatives. If Palin makes a run for the White House, it has little effect on the race in North Carolina. Romney still leads with 18% to Bachmann’s 17%, Perry’s 14%, Palin’s 12%, Cain and Gingrich’s 8%, Paul’s 7%, Pawlenty’s 4%, and Huntsman’s 1%.

Romney. Bachmann basically tied in NC and NJ

North Carolina and New Jersey are pretty different states but when it comes to the Republican Presidential race their stories are quite similar- Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann are basically tied for the lead.

In New Jersey Romney's at 22% with Bachmann at 21%, Ron Paul at 11%, Rick Perry at 10%, Herman Cain at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Tim Pawlenty at 5%, and Jon Huntsman at 3%.

Bachmann's strength in New Jersey is notable because it has one of the most moderate Republican electorates you will find in any state. There are more voters- 27%- who identify as moderates than there are who label themselves 'very conservative'- 23%. This is the only state where we've found that to be the case and you would expect it to be a drag on her numbers. But she leads Romney 26-18 with those far right voters and also has a 21-19 advantage with ones who are just 'somewhat conservative.' That allows her to offset the 34-16 deficit she faces with moderates.

Obama still in good shape in New Jersey

Raleigh, N.C. – New Jersey has been a bit of a tease for Republicans at the presidential level.  In the wake of 9/11, George W. Bush’s campaign played there at the last minute in 2004, only to lose by six points on Election Day.  The GOP may have sensed renewed hope with the election of Chris Christie, but his popularity has sunk, and if he were to run, he would do worse in his home state against President Obama than would national frontrunner Mitt Romney.  In fact, none of the contenders would come closer than John McCain did to winning the state except Romney, and Romney only barely.

Romney’s 14-point deficit, 53-39, is only a hair less than McCain’s 15-point loss.  Christie falls behind, 56-39; Michele Bachmann, 55-35; Tim Pawlenty, 54-32; Herman Cain, 55-29; and Sarah Palin, 59-33.  Romney (52-37), Palin (59-29), and Christie (55-38) trailed by similar margins when PPP last took a look at the race in early January.  The President wins the independent vote against everyone but Romney (trailing only 44-45), and wins considerably more support from the opposite party than the Republicans do.

Jersey? Fuhgedaboutit

Except Jon Huntsman's wholloping in Utah and Ron Paul's narrow lead in Texas, we have yet to find a single Republican beating Obama in his own state. Now New Jersey marks another state where a potential favorite-son White House aspirant has no home-field advantage.

The Garden State has been a bit of a tease for Republicans at the presidential level. In the wake of 9/11, George W. Bush’s campaign played there at the last minute in 2004, only to lose by six points on Election Day. The GOP may have sensed renewed hope with the election of Chris Christie in 2009, but his popularity has sunk, and if he were to run, he would do worse in his home state against President Obama than would national frontrunner Mitt Romney. In fact, none of the contenders would come closer than John McCain did to winning the state except Romney, and Romney only barely.

Obama still in good shape in New Jersey

Raleigh, N.C. – New Jersey has been a bit of a tease for Republicans at the presidential level.  In the wake of 9/11, George W. Bush’s campaign played there at the last minute in 2004, only to lose by six points on Election Day.  The GOP may have sensed renewed hope with the election of Chris Christie, but his popularity has sunk, and if he were to run, he would do worse in his home state against President Obama than would national frontrunner Mitt Romney.  In fact, none of the contenders would come closer than John McCain did to winning the state except Romney, and Romney only barely.

Christie in trouble for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Having skated by to a narrow victory against an unpopular incumbent in a Republican cycle in Democratic leaning New Jersey, Chris Christie had his work ahead of him in winning over the state. One and a half years into his term, he hasn’t succeeded. As is true for many of the newly elected Republican governors, Christie faces underwater approval ratings with only 43% of voters approving and 53% disapproving. This is down significantly from his 48-45 rating in January. About as many Democrats approve of Christie, as Republicans disapprove, 17, but Christie is down with independents 40-54.

Christie on the decline

Chris Christie's popularity has declined significantly over the first half of 2011 and he would have a very difficult time winning reelection if voters in New Jersey went to the polls today.

Only 43% of voters in the state approve of the job Christie is doing to 53% who disapprove. That -10 approval spread represents a 13 point decline from when PPP last polled the state in January, when Christie's standing was 48/45. Christie's numbers are steady with Republicans. But independents have really turned on him, going from approving by a 55/39 margin to disapproving by a 54/40 margin. And his crossover popularity with Democrats is on the decline as well- where 23% approved of him in January now only 16% do.

Menendez shows some weakness

Raleigh, N.C. – Robert Menendez might be the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up for reelection next year that no one's talking about.  PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds him with an approval rating mired in the 30s and leading by only 5 points over one of his prospective 2012 opponents.

Just 37% of voters in the state approve of the job Menendez is doing to 35% who disapprove.  He has awful numbers with independents, only 24% of whom approve of him to 40% who think he's doing a poor job. And Republicans (63% disapproval) are more convinced that he's doing a bad job than Democrats are (60% approval) that his performance has been good.

Menendez shows some signs of weakness

Robert Menendez might be the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up for reelection next year that no one's talking about. PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds him with an approval rating mired in the 30s and leading by only 5 points over one of his prospective 2012 opponents.

Just 37% of voters in the state approve of the job Menendez is doing to 35% who disapprove. He has awful numbers with independents, only 24% of whom approve of him to 40% who think he's doing a poor job. And Republicans (63% disapproval) are more convinced that he's doing a bad job than Democrats are (60% approval) that his performance has been good.

Good news for Huckabee, bad news for Romney in NJ

Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are each the top choice of 18% of New Jersey Republicans to be the party's nominee for President next year. Newt Gingrich at 15% and Sarah Palin at 14% are right behind with Ron Paul leading the second tier at 8%, followed by Tim Pawlenty with 4%, Mitch Daniels with 3%, and John Thune with 2%.

New Jersey may or may not end up being important to the Republican nomination process but either way this continues the trend in our recent 2012 polling...more good news for Huckabee, more bad news for Romney. If there's anywhere that Romney should really be strong it's the northeast but he's polling ten points behind the 28% he got there in 2008. Huckabee's peformance meanwhile shows strength for him outside his home base in the South and it's ten points better than the 8% he got there last time around.

In addition to its geography New Jersey also ought to be a good state for Romney because it has one of the more moderate Republican electorates in the country. In most states we've been polling more than 70% of GOP primary voters describe themselves as conservatives but it's only 60% in New Jersey. But Romney can't take advantage of that because he's in fourth place with conservatives at 14% behind Huckabee's 21%, Gingrich's 17%, and Palin's 16%. Romney is indeed way up with moderates at 24% with no one else doing any better than 13%. But that's only enough to balance out his poor performance with conservatives relative to Huckabee. Romney's really in trouble for next year if he can't do a lot to improve his standing with the right wing of the party over the course of 2011.

Meanwhile Republicans in the state are pretty sold on having Thomas Kean Jr. as their nominee for Senate next year. 42% say they'd like him to be their candidate compared to 30% who pick Lou Dobbs and only 7% who pick Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno. 6% say they would want someone else and 15% are unsure. Kean has a 30 point lead over Dobbs with moderates but only a two point advantage over him with folks describing themselves as conservatives. Given the moderate profile of the Kean family he seems like a Republican who could face some trouble with the Tea Party in a primary, even if their standard bearer ends up being someone a lot less well known than Dobbs.

Full results here