Public Policy Polling

SC-1 a toss-up, momentum with Sanford

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin.

Sanford has momentum in SC-1

PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.

Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.

While Colbert Busch is seen as too liberal, 48% of voters think that Sanford's views are 'about right' on the issues compared to just 38% who see him as too conservative. Sanford's also seen some repair to his image over the course of the campaign. Although he's still unpopular, sporting a -11 net favorability rating at 43/54, that's up a net 13 points from our first poll in March when he was at 34/58.

If SC-1 voters went to the polls on Tuesday and voted for the candidate they personally liked better, Colbert Busch would be the definite winner. That's why Sanford's campaign has tried to shift the focus toward national Democrats who are unpopular in the district, and that's been a key in helping him to make this race competitive again. Nancy Pelosi has a 24/61 approval rating in SC-1 and although voters don't like Sanford, they do like him better than Pelosi by a 53/37 margin. President Obama doesn't fare a whole lot better in the district. His approval is 39/54, and voters say they have a higher opinion of Sanford than him by a 48/44 spread.

NRA, Congressional Republicans seeing big popularity drop

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.

Images of NRA, Congressional Republicans on the decline

PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.

On the broader issue of giving teachers guns, only 27% of voters are supportive with 64% opposed. There's bipartisan opposition to that concept with Republicans (35/50), independents (31/59), and Democrats (19/77) all standing against it. Gun owners (37/52) oppose it as well.

The holidays and the fiscal cliff took a lot of the spotlight off gun control measures, but in general 53% of Americans say they support stricter gun laws with 40% opposed.

Congress emerged from the fiscal cliff debate with a 7% approval rating, with 81% of voters disapproving of it. But the two parties aren't going in for equal blame. While the Democrats in Congress aren't popular (-12 at 38/50) their approval rating is a net 48 points better than their Republican counterparts (-60 at 15/75).The Republicans in Congress have only a 25/61 approval rating even with the GOP base, suggesting the potential for 2014 to bring a lot of primary challenges.

The considerably higher esteem the Democrats in Congress have compared to the Republicans is extending to our early generic ballot polling for 2014- 47% of voters say they'd support the Democratic candidate for the House from their district if there was an election today to 41% who say they would vote for the GOP nominee.

Ohio down on Boehner, blames Bush for economy

Raleigh, N.C. – The debt deal has caused Ohioans to sour on John Boehner.  When PPP polled the state in May, 37% both approved and disapproved of Boehner’s performance in office.  Now, only 34% approve, and his disapproval is up to 47%.  The main cause? A movement of 23 points in the wrong direction with independents, from 37-34 to 34-54.  He has also declined with the two major parties.  Now, more Republicans disapprove (16%) than Democrats approve (12%), the opposite of three months ago, when only 8% of Republicans disapproved and 14% of Democrats approved.  Boehner’s native state does still see him more positively than they do Nancy Pelosi, however, with 49% viewing Boehner more favorably and 34% Pelosi.  14% see them equally well.

Ohio Miscellaneous

The recent debt deal has caused Ohioans to sour on John Boehner. When PPP polled the state in May, 37% both approved and disapproved of Speaker Boehner’s performance in office. Now, only 34% approve, and his disapproval is up to 47%. The main cause? A movement of 23 points in the wrong direction with independents, from 37-34 to 34-54. He has also declined with the two major parties. Now, more Republicans disapprove (16%) than Democrats approve (12%), the opposite of three months ago, when only 8% of Republicans disapproved and 14% of Democrats approved.

Boehner’s native state does still see him more positively than they do Nancy Pelosi, however, with 49% viewing Boehner more favorably and 34% Pelosi. 14% see them equally well--almost all Democrats and independents. Though Republicans are not terribly high on Boehner in isolation, when matched with his vile foe, the former speaker, 90% of them prefer Boehner. Still only 62% of Democrats have a higher opinion of Pelosi, and independents split 52-25 Boehner's way, a huge switch from their overall feelings on him. Pelosi should probably steer clear of Ohio when her vulnerable members are running in Ohio House races next year.

Boehner as unpopular as Pelosi

A major milestone occurred in our national polling this week: John Boehner is now just as unpopular as Nancy Pelosi. His net approval is -24 at a 28/52 spread and her net approval is -24 as well at a 31/55 spread. In 2010 Republican House challengers were dying to run against Pelosi and did so with a high level of success. Now it looks like Democratic candidates may similarly be able to get traction by running against Boehner next year.

Pelosi's numbers now are exactly identical to what they were when we did our first poll of the year in January. But Boehner has dropped by an astounding 31 points. He began the year in positive ground with 35% of voters approving of him and 28% disapproving. Over the course of his first seven months as speaker his approval has dropped 7 points while his disapproval has spiked by 24 points.

Californians Not High on Pelosi

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats may not hold onto their almost four-year-long majority in the U.S. House in the next Congress, but if they do, a bare majority of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s fellow California residents would prefer someone else take over the gavel in a diminished Democratic caucus.  38% are fine with Pelosi, but 50% want another representative to chair.

In August, PPP polled similar questions for John Boehner in Ohio.  While the overall desire for him to become Speaker among Buckeyes is less (28-44) than for Pelosi in her home state, that is largely a function of Democrats’ greater prevalence in the California electorate than Republicans’ in Ohio.  Independents prefer someone else to each of them by margins of almost 2:1, 22-41 for Boehner and 29-56 for Pelosi.  The most important figure, though, is that the two leaders have similar levels of support from their respective party bases, Pelosi at 62-22 and Boehner at 54-15. 

California Down on Pelosi

If there was any question Nancy Pelosi's a liability for Democrats across the country this should put it to rest- even in California voters have an unfavorable opinion of her and would like to see her replaced as Speaker.

Only 38% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of her while 48% view her unfavorably. Independents see her negatively by a more than 2:1 margin, 62/27. And Republicans (87%) are considerably more unified in their dislike of her than Democrats (62%) are in seeing her positively.

We found yesterday that Californians were planning to vote Democratic for Congress this fall by a 51-38 margin. But when it comes to keeping Pelosi as Speaker those numbers pretty much reverse with only 38% of voters saying they'd like her to continue while 50% think it's time for her to be replaced.

Running against Pelosi wasn't an effective strategy for Republican candidates in 2008 but if voters in her home state don't even want her continue as Speaker it's hard to imagine there's much of anywhere in the country where folks do want her to.

Full results here

Running against Pelosi

Two years ago when the Republican party was falling apart in the Congressional races, one of their most common tactics in swing districts was to try to run against Nancy Pelosi instead of the Democratic nominee.

Our own Heath Shuler was one of the folks they tried that tactic against, running an ad that stated 'The Pelosi game plan: Elect Heath Shuler and others like him, and take over Congress with the votes of illegal immigrants.'

It seemed like a pretty moronic idea even at the time. Nancy Pelosi just is not that well known to average voters, particularly ones who aren't ardent partisans and might be more open minded about who to vote for on an election by election basis.

The results spoke for themselves. The Republicans got completely destroyed, even losing districts that virtually no one would have considered losable.

So you would have thought after that royal drubbing they would have stopped trying to play the Pelosi card. But that would be giving them too much credit.

This issue has gotten a lot of attention this week due to this ridiculous ad Missouri Congressman Sam Graves is running against challenger Kay Barnes. But the same thing is going on here in North Carolina.

The votes had barely even been counted on primary night when Patrick McHenry, who based on the demographics of his district should be at no risk whatsoever, started trying to tie his Democratic opponent to Nancy Pelosi.

That McHenry would even bother is an indication that he's worried about losing this fall, which says something about the job he's done and the current political climate.

Here's some news for you Congressman. The voters don't care about Nancy Pelosi. They made that clear in 2006. If you all want to play by the same book that caused your enormous losses in 2006, then you can expect enormous losses again in 2008.

If Congressional Republicans keep on talking about Nancy Pelosi while their Democratic challengers talk about the issues that voters actually care about, 2006 will be looked back at wistfully by the GOP when it suffers even worse losses this time.