Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama came awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in 2008 don't look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney by a 10 point margin, 52-42.
Missouri's one state where Paul Ryan's selection might really be helping the GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we've found that to be the case since Romney announced his selection.
Romney's substantial lead comes for 3 reasons. 1) He leads 49-43 with independents. Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 2) 86% of GOP voters are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him. And 3) The state's moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.