Public Policy Polling

Comparing Delaware and Alaska

One thing that really struck me in our Delaware polling numbers was that on a lot of measures Mike Castle actually appeared to be in even worse shape than Lisa Murkowski:

-55% of primary voters said they thought Castle was too liberal. For Murkowski on our post primary poll in Alaska that was only 47%.

-Castle's favorability was a negative 43/47. On the similar although not identical measure of approval we still found Murkowski on slightly positive ground even after her primary loss at 48/46.

-35% of primary voters in Delaware said they were positively influenced by a Sarah Palin endorsement, only 26% said the same in Alaska.

-25% of Delaware Republicans say they consider themselves to be members of the Tea Party movement. Only 18% said the same in Alaska.

A lot of these differences can probably be chalked up to Delaware having a closed primary and Alaska an open one. 64% of primary voters in Delaware identified themselves as conservatives to 59% in Alaska.

There's a pretty wide range of outcomes that would not surprise me tomorrow given the difficulties of polling a Republican electorate in a small blue state. It would be no shock if Castle hangs on to win but when you look at the internal numbers and compare them to Murkowski I also wouldn't be all that surprised if O'Donnell ends up winning by 10.

Too Close to Call in Delaware

It looks like there’s a real possibility of a major upset in the Delaware Senate primary on Tuesday night, with insurgent conservative Christine O’Donnell leading longtime Congressman and Governor Mike Castle 47-44. That 3 point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.

If Castle is indeed defeated Tuesday night it will be yet another sign that conservatives have a strangle hold on the Republican Party and moderates may or may not be welcome anymore. Castle has an overwhelming 69-21 lead with moderate voters but they only make up 33% of the likely primary electorate. O’Donnell has a 62-31 lead with conservatives that’s more than enough to propel her to the overall lead.

It’s clear that Castle’s popularity has taken a sharp turn in the wrong direction over the last month. An August PPP poll found his favorability with Delaware Republicans at a 60/25 spread. Now his favorables within the party are negative at 43/47. That’s largely a product of 55% of voters in his party saying they think he’s too liberal compared to 37% who think he’s about right.

GOP voters are pretty sharply divided about O’Donnell as well. 45% have a favorable opinion of her with 41% seeing her unfavorably. Only 50% of primary voters think she’s fit to hold public office but she does much better than Castle on the ideology front- 53% think she’s about right.

If O’Donnell pulls it out Tuesday night it will be a major victory for Delaware’s small but united group of Tea Party voters. Just 25% of Republicans in the state consider themselves to be members of that movement but they give her a 79-18 advantage that’s more than enough to overcome her 52-39 deficit with everyone else.

Assessing the impact of Sarah Palin's endorsement is similar to the Tea Party numbers. Only 35% of Republicans in the state say they're more likely to vote for someone with Palin's support to 24% who say it's a negative and 41% with no opinion. But O'Donnell is really running up the score with that third for whom it is a positive, leading Castle 83-13. That outweighs Castle's 82-11 lead with people who say it's a negative and his 49-41 advantage with people who don't care.

This race is too close to call and could certainly go either way Tuesday night. General election Senate numbers we'll release later this week make it clear the biggest beneficiary of this primary becoming so unexpectedly hotly contested is Chris Coons. He would start out with a large advantage over O'Donnell in a general election match up, and is polling closer to Castle than he was when PPP polled Delaware last month.

Full results here

Some good news for Biden

Mike Castle led Beau Biden 45-39 on the Delaware Senate poll we put out yesterday but I actually thought there was plenty of good news for Biden within the survey.

First off, only 24% of voters in Delaware have a favorable opinion of Congressional Republicans with 57% viewing them unfavorably. The Democrats' numbers aren't great- a 42/46 spread- but they aren't nearly as bad as the GOP. This is one place where nationalizing the race next year will definitely be a good strategy for Democrats. Biden needs to get voters to think less about how they like Castle and more about how they don't like Congressional Republicans in general. Because it's been a long time since Castle had a serious challenge he hasn't really been held accountable for the broader behavior of his party. That will change next year.

Second, the undecided voters in the race at this point are a very Democratic leaning lot. They voted for Barack Obama by a 64-21 margin last year and still approve of him 59/29. Many of them are Democrats who like Castle but can't commit themselves to voting for a Republican. If the voters who like Obama broke to Biden and the voters who don't broke to Castle, Castle's lead would be reduced to 50-48. That's not a bad position for Biden considering how popular Castle is and how unblemished he's been in recent campaigns.

Campaigns matter, and I think there's a very good chance that Castle's poll numbers right now represent his peak. If Biden gets in I think Democrats will hold on here.

Castle continues to lead in Delaware race

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama's job performance? If you
approve, press 1. If you disapprove, press 2.
If you're not sure, press 3.
Approve .......................................................... 53%
Disapprove...................................................... 41%
Not Sure.......................................................... 6%

Q2 Do you support or oppose the health care bill
passed in the House of Representatives a few
weeks ago? If you support it, press 1. If you
oppose it, press 2. If you’re not sure, press 3.
Support ........................................................... 43%
Oppose ........................................................... 46%
Not Sure.......................................................... 11%

Castle still up on Biden

When PPP took a look at Delaware in March, Mike Castle led Beau Biden 44-36. Fast forward nine months and pretty much nothing has changed with Castle leading by a similar 45-39 margin.

Two major trends have shown up in both polls to give Castle the early advantage. The first is an overwhelming 52-23 lead with independents. That mirrors a national trend of strong Republican performance with that group, although Castle's edge is particularly large. The second is that he wins over far more Democrats than Biden does Republicans. Castle has a 79-10 lead within his own party, while Biden is up just 65-20 in his. Castle is winning more support from people who approve of Obama than any other Republican Senate candidate we've polled on nationwide this year.

Also working to Castle's benefit is that the state is not nearly as enamored with Obama as it was earlier in the year. Just 53% of voters now approve of his job performance, down from 63% in March. While he is relatively steady with independents his standing with Democrats has gone from 89% to 79% and with Republicans he's declined from 25% to 18%. By a 46-43 margin Delaware voters say they're opposed to the health care bill the House of Representatives passed last month, an indication that Castle may have actually been on the right side of public opinion on that issue even in a Democratic state.

Castle may get a bit of a challenge from Christine O'Donnell in the Republican primary because 30% of the party's voters think that he's too liberal. Compared to other Republican Senate candidates across the country Castle is unusually popular with Democrats, as 48% view him favorably, but also unusually unpopular with Republicans, just 61% of whom view him positively. It's unusual for the gap in favorability for a politician between the two parties to be so small.

Biden has little crossover appeal, as just 15% of Republicans hold a positive opinion of him. His 38% favorability with independents runs 22 points behind Castle's 60%.

This race is still close and Biden, if he gets in the race, will have a decent shot at winning. But Mike Castle looked like the favorite last winter and nine months later he stills does.

Full results here

Castle's crossover support

We're releasing our Delaware poll tomorrow and as was the case in the spring Mike Castle is doing well.

Obviously for a Republican to win statewide in a place like Delaware it requires winning a lot of crossover support and Castle is more well equipped to do that at this point than any other Senate candidate in the country for 2010. He's winning 20% of the vote from people who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing.

To put that number in context, look at it compared with how other Republican Senate candidates across the country are doing with people who like Obama:

State	Candidate	% of vote from Obama approvers
Delaware	Mike Castle	20 vs. Beau Biden
North Carolina	Richard Burr	9 vs. Elaine Marshall
Ohio	Rob Portman	9 vs. Lee Fisher
Arkansas	Gilbert Baker	9
Colorado	Ken Buck	7
Missouri	Roy Blunt	5
Wisconsin	Terrence Wall	2

Castle is getting more than twice as much crossover support as anyone else we've polled on in the last six months or so. That's a pretty remarkable stat, and it's why he's such a formidable candidate.

Breaking the wave

Upon the news of Mike Castle getting in to the race for the Senate yesterday Larry Sabato tweeted that the Delaware race would be a classic test of the 2010 mood.

Most of the folks running in key Senate races next year are pretty bland and anonymous. Very few people have strong opinions about the Michael Bennets, Jane Nortons, Gilbert Bakers, Mark Kirks, Richard Burrs, Elaine Marshalls, Paul Hodes, Kelly Ayottes, Lee Fishers, and Rob Portmans of the world. I think all of their races will go in one direction if next year is particularly good for the Republicans or for the Democrats- the candidates don't seem to be distinctive enough to avoid riding a wave.

I disagree with Sabato about Delaware though. Delaware and Missouri are two states where the candidates are so well known that voters might choose based on something more personalized than whether they hate the Democrats or the Republicans more at that moment.

Of all the competitive 2010 Senate contests those two are the only ones where both likely candidates have registered more than 75% name recognition in our polling. 83% of voters in Missouri have an opinion about Roy Blunt, 81% do about Robin Carnahan. 87% in Delaware have a take on Mike Castle and 76% do of Beau Biden. I'm sure it's no coincidence that three of the four come from prominent political families.

So I can see next year being a very GOP friendly year and Carnahan and Biden still pulling it out. And I can see where it would somehow be a Democratic year but Castle would still win. These candidates are strong enough personalities that voters might look beyond party labels to a greater extent than normal and buck a national trend.

Thoughts on Delaware

Anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I am not particularly optimistic about Democratic prospects for next year. But I think that as long as Beau Biden still runs now that Mike Castle is in the race, Democrats will hold onto the Senate seat in Delaware.

When we polled the state in March Castle was leading Biden 44-36. But not surprisingly his name recognition was also ten points higher. Among respondents who had an opinion of Biden, whether it was positive or negative, the Democrat led 43-41. And the undecideds in such a scenario were 64% Democratic to 12% Republican, as well as 35% African American.

So Castle's early poll leads are largely a function of name recognition, and given his nearly 30 years in statewide office really aren't that substantial.

By this time next year everyone in Delaware's going to know who Beau Biden is. Democrats who have a positive opinion of both Castle and Biden and are torn about who to vote for are more likely to be influenced by Joe Biden as a candidate surrogate than anyone Republicans could possibly send to the state. And if it's necessary Barack Obama will come in to reach out to those blacks who were only giving Biden 52% of the vote on our poll earlier this year (and folks don't realize that Delaware has one of the highest black populations in the country.)

Although it's not a perfect comparison, when Delaware voters had the choice between a popular old politician and a popular young politician in 2000 they chose Tom Carper over incumbent Bill Roth by a 56-44 margin in an election cycle that you would have to describe as pretty much a wash nationally.

Castle hasn't had to fight a tough race in years. Maybe he's up to the challenge. Maybe the climate will get even more toxic for Democrats than it already is. But for now I think Biden will win.

Castle leads Carney and Coons

Mike Castle has double digit leads over former Lieutenant Governor John Carney and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, two hypothetical 2010 opponents for his House seat.

It appears, however, that Carney would start out in decent position to give Castle the strongest challenge he's had in years. Castle is actually below the magic 50% considered safe territory for incumbents, with a 49-32 edge over Carney. It's a wider 56-21 edge over Coons.

Carney and Coons are each unknown quantities to a large swath of state voters, giving either a lot of room to move up if they decided to make the race next year. While all but 13% of Delaware voters have an opinion about Castle, 35% are ambivalent toward Carney and 45% have no feelings one way or the other about Coons.

Among those who do know them, Carney gets a positive 37/28 rating and Coons' is 30/25.

Carney, who seems the more likely of the two candidates, is under performing with Democrats and several key demographics that tend to support the party's candidates. For instance he has just a 48-34 advantage with voters in his own party, and also is at 48% with black voters and only 24% with those under 30. Those numbers would all likely improve a good deal if he made the race.

Certainly Castle's numbers are strong and he would be heavily favored against either of these challengers. But these numbers do not show invincibility- in fact Elizabeth Dole held a 17 point lead in our polling on the North Carolina Senate race last year as late as February even after challengers to her had been campaigning for several months. This could be a race to watch if Carney makes it.

Full results here.

Castle leads Biden in possible match

PPP's new Delaware survey finds that longtime Republican Congressman Mike Castle would lead Attorney General Beau Biden 44-36 in a possible 2010 Senate contest.

Each candidate is very popular. Castle has a 54% approval rating from state voters with 33% disapproving of his work. Even a 45% plurality of Democrats approve with 39% disapproving, the first time PPP has ever found a member of Congress getting more positive than negative reviews from voters in the opposite party. Castle's overall approval rating isn't better because 24% of Republicans disapprove of his performance, probably due to his moderate stands on many issues that may not fly with the conservative Republican base.

Biden actually has a slightly better net approval rating than Castle, although more voters are ambivalent toward his job performance. 49% approve of the work he's doing with only 27% expressing disapproval.

Castle is winning the head to head match up because of a 53-20 advantage with independents and because he pulls 22% of the Democratic vote. Biden's core problem at this point is that even though 67% of the voters who have a positive opinion of both him and Castle are Democrats, he has only a 42-40 lead with that group. That's likely a function of voters knowing Castle better after nearly 30 years in statewide office.

The particularly good news for Democrats? There's been no indication from Castle that he's interested in running and given Biden's overall strong marks from Delaware voters there's probably not any other Republican who could be competitive with him.

Full results here.