Public Policy Polling

Obama leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania

PPP's newest Presidential polls in Michigan and Pennsylvania find Barack Obama with healthy leads in both states. He's up by 14 points, 53-39, in Michigan and by 6 points, 49-43, in Pennsylvania. We last looked at each of these states in May. Speaking to the stability of the Presidential race over the last couple months the Michigan result is exactly identical to the last poll, and the Pennsylvania poll differs only slightly from Obama's 50-42 advantage on the previous one.

There are a couple common themes driving Obama's success in these states. The biggest is his competitiveness with white voters. He actually leads 48-44 with them in Michigan, and he just narrowly trails 46-45 with them in Pennsylvania. Given the healthy sized African American populations in both those states anything close to a split with white voters will give Obama an easy victory. Obama is also benefiting from a huge lead with women in both states, 59-33 in Michigan and 54-37 in Pennsylvania, which helps him offset a closer race with men. And he has the upper hand with independents in both states, 50-37 in Michigan and 46-39 in Pennsylvania.

One thing that could be a huge game changer in both of these states? Mitt Romney selecting Condoleezza Rice as his running mate. She would give him a 6 point advantage both places, pulling him into a tie in Pennsylvania at 45-45 and narrowing the gap in Michigan to 50/42. Rice is a very unusually popular political figure. In Pennsylvania her favorability rating is 60/27 and in Michigan it's 56/28. She's even seen favorably by Democrats- 47/38 in Pennsylvania and 41/40 in Michigan- in both states. Her selection has the potential to be a game changer.

Support for gay marriage climbing in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – Add Michigan to the growing list of states that are experiencing significant shifts in support for gay marriage.

70% of Michigan voters believe gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up from 62% in August, when Michigan voters were last polled on their opinion of gay marriage. A majority (51%) of state Republicans think gay couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions.

While a plurality (45%) of Michigan voters think same-sex marriage should be illegal, this number is down 8 points from August, symbolizing a notable shift in public opinion in the state.

In other states that have seen recent spikes in support for gay marriage, it is almost always the case that African-American voters are the leading transformative demographic. But this is not the case in Michigan—African Americans in Michigan have not budged since they polled 68% in August for gay marriage or civil union support. White voters have improved 8 points to 70% in their support for gay marriages or civil unions since August.

Michigan Miscellany

-Michigan voters have moved significantly on the issue of gay marriage since PPP polled on it last summer. They still think it should be illegal by a 4 point margin, 45/41, but that's a 16 point shift from last July when they thought it should be outlawed by a 53/33 spread.

The big shift has come among Democrats, perhaps in response to President Obama's recent announcement. They now support it 63/21, up from only 48/36 favor for it a year ago. Independents are now almost evenly divided it on, 44/43, after previously opposing it 50/36.

When you expand the discussion to civil unions 70% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 27% completely opposed to any. Even 51% of Republicans at least support civil unions.

-Democrats in Michigan have a very good chance at reclaiming control of the state House this fall. They have a 50-35 lead on the generic legislative ballot. That includes a 10 point advantage with independents, and the party is also extremely unified with 92% of Democrats committed to supporting their party's candidates this fall. This round of GOP control may prove to be short lived.

-PPP took a look at how Michigan voters feel about four of the state's cultural icons: Kid Rock, Ted Nugent, Eminem, and Michael Moore.

Stabenow extends lead in Mich. Senate race

Raleigh, N.C. – Incumbent Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow is beginning to distance herself from her challengers as the general election nears.

Democrat Stabenow holds a 53-31 lead over potential Republican challenger Clark Durant, and a 53-37 lead over other potential Republican challenger Pete Hoekstra. Stabenow’s 22-point lead over Durant is a 5-point increase from February, when the last statewide poll was conducted. Stabenow’s lead over Hoekstra has grown 2 points since February.

Stabenow leads by double digits

Debbie Stabenow is looking like a safer and safer bet for reelection. PPP's newest poll finds her ahead of Pete Hoekstra by a 53-37 margin and with an even wider 53-31 advantage on Clark Durant.

The numbers are very similar to the 51-37 lead Stabenow had on Hoekstra in mid-February, but they're quite an improvement from last summer when Stabenow led only 50-41. The fallout from Hoekstra's controversial Super Bowl ad really seemed to take a lot of the wind out of his sails.

Stabenow's benefiting from a Democratic Party that's almost completely united behind her (89-5) as well as a 49-33 advantage with independents. One thing that really pops out in the crosstabs is that she's ahead by a more than 2:1 margin, 60-29, with women.

Stabenow's own approval ratings aren't that impressive, with 45% of voters approving of her to 41% who disapprove. But neither of her opponents have very strong numbers with Hoekstra's favorability rating coming down at 29/30 and Durant's at 9/18.

Hoekstra remains an overwhelming favorite for the Republican nomination. He's at 42% to 11% for Durant, 4% each for Gary Glenn and Randy Hekman, and 0% for Peter Konetchy. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from February when Hoekstra led by a 42-9 spread.

Obama well ahead in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama won't have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP's last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.

Romney just doesn't have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.

It's not just Romney's unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama's own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.

Obama safe in Michigan

Barack Obama won't have to worry too much about holding Michigan for the Democrats this fall- he leads Mitt Romney 53-39 there, a lead little changed from PPP's last poll of the state in February when his advantage was 54-38.

Romney just doesn't have much of a home field advantage in the state. Only 24% of voters consider him to be a Michigander to 65% who do not. And only 35% have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative view.

It's not just Romney's unpopularity helping Obama in Michigan though. Obama's own approval rating is at a record high in our polling of the state with 53% of voters giving him good marks to 41% who disapprove, including a 50/43 standing with independents.

Obama's crushing Romney on what will doubtless be one of the biggest issues in the campaign in Michigan- 55% think that he's been better for the automotive industry in the state to only 31% who say Romney wins out on that front.

Going inside the numbers Obama's winning over 13% of Republican voters while losing just 7% of Democrats, and he also has a double digit advantage with independents at 48-36. Obama's winning women by a 58-34 margin and significantly has a 10 point lead with white voters at 50-40.

Seattle tops popularity list of U.S. cities

Raleigh, N.C. – The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities: Oakland, CA (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), San Francisco (48-29), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

American cities favorability poll

The Pacific Northwest has a good reputation nationwide--the two most popular of the 21 prominent cities we asked about in our national poll last weekend are Seattle and Portland, OR.  57% of American voters see Seattle favorably and only 14% unfavorably, edging out Portland (52-12) by three points on the margin.

The most unpopular is Detroit, which only 22% see positively and 49% negatively.  Americans have net-negative impressions of only two other of these cities, and both are in California: Oakland (21-39) and Los Angeles (33-40).  In February, PPP found California to be the least popular state in the union.  It does have the 11th most popular city, though: San Francisco (48-29).

Between the pack are Boston (52-17), Atlanta (51-19), Phoenix (49-18), Dallas (48-21), New York (49-23), New Orleans (47-24), Houston (45-22), Salt Lake City (43-20), Philadelphia (42-22), Baltimore (37-24), Las Vegas (43-33), Chicago (42-33), Cleveland (32-25), Washington, D.C. (44-39), and Miami (36-33).

Obama doing well in Wisconsin and beyond

There might not be any state that better represents Barack Obama's improved fortunes in the opening months of 2012 than Wisconsin. When we polled there in late October Obama's approval was a 44/51 spread and he led Mitt Romney by only 3 points at 46-43, representing a much closer race than the state had in 2008. Now those numbers have shifted significantly, with Obama's approval basically flipping to 52/44. And he now leads Romney 53-39, a 14 point margin that matches what he won against John McCain there.

Obama's 14 point lead in Wisconsin matches a trend we're seeing in both our national and state polling across the country right now: Obama/Romney is starting to look more and more like Obama/McCain, or even something more friendly to the President. Here's the breakdown on all of our Obama/Romney polls from 2012 and how they compare to the 2008 results:

State	2012 Poll	2008 Result	Shift
Wisconsin	Obama +14	Obama +14	None
Washington	Obama +15	Obama +17	R+2
Arizona	Tie	McCain +8	D+8
Michigan	Obama +16	Obama +16	None
National	Obama +7	Obama +7	None
North Carolina	Obama +1	Tie	D+1
Missouri	Tie	Tie	None
Ohio	Obama +7	Obama +4	D+3
Minnesota	Obama +10	Obama +10	None
Texas	Romney +7	McCain +11	D+4

In 5 out of 10 places we've polled so far in 2012 Obama's standing matches his 2008 performance, in 4 of them it's better, and in only 1 is it worse. I fully expect Romney's numbers to see some improvement if/when he wins the nomination but for now things are shaping up pretty favorably for the President.