Public Policy Polling

Democrats lead the way in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP's newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.

Hickenlooper and Udall lead for reelection

John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP's newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.

With no serious Republicans running for either of these offices yet we basically tested every major GOP figure in the state against both Hickenlooper and Udall: former Congressman Bob Beauprez, Congressman Cory Gardner, Secretary of State Scott Gessler, 2010 Senate candidate Jane Norton, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Attorney General John Suthers, former Congressman Tom Tancredo, and Congressman Scott Tipton.

Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating. The one who comes closest is Suthers, who still has a -6 favorability rating. In addition to being unliked the GOP bench is also largely unknown- the only one with higher than 52% name recognition is Tancredo.

Only one of the Republicans comes within single digits of Hickenlooper or Udall in any of the match ups. That's Beauprez who trails each of them by 7- 50/43 against Hickenlooper and 48/41 against Udall.

Obama leads by 6 points in Colorado, 4 in Nevada

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Colorado and Nevada find Barack Obama leading by margins of 52/46 and 51/47 respectively. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Colorado since the first Presidential debate and found Obama leading by an average of 4.25 points. PPP has conducted 3 polls in Nevada since the first debate and found Obama ahead by a 4 point margin every time.

In Colorado Obama is winning thanks to a huge advantage among independent voters, 59/34. He's down 57/41 among seniors but leads 58/39 among voters under 45, a huge generational split that suggests the state may be voting Democratic for a long time to come. Obama's actually running slightly ahead with white voters (50/49) and when you combine that with his big advantage among Hispanics it fuels his overall 6 point lead.

In Nevada Obama's going into election day with a large lead. We find that among early voters he's up 55/44. Romney leads 56/40 with those planning to vote tomorrow but he'd need a much wider margin than that given that most of the state has already voted. Obama's leading based on overwhelming support from Hispanic voters (66/32) and those under 30 (62/34).

Obama holds 3-point lead in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama holding onto a small lead over Mitt Romney, 50/47. That's down from a 51/45 advantage before the first Presidential debate and matches the smallest lead PPP has found for Obama in the state all year.

Romney's seen the same kind of improvement in his image in Colorado that he has throughout the country this month. In September his favorability was a net -6 spread with 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. That's improved by 5 points to -1 at 48/49. Meanwhile Obama's seen a slight decline in his numbers, with his approval dipping from positive ground at 50/47 to break even at 49/49.

Obama's continuing to lead thanks largely to a 51/42 advantage with independents. There's a large generational gap in Colorado with voters under 65 supporting Obama 51/46, but seniors preferring Romney 55/43. Romney has a narrow advantage with white voters at 50/47, but Obama more than offsets that with big leads among Hispanics (59/38) and other non-white voters (59/29).

Obama leads by 3 points in Colorado

PPP's newest Colorado poll finds Barack Obama holding onto a small lead over Mitt Romney, 50/47. That's down from a 51/45 advantage before the first Presidential debate and matches the smallest lead PPP has found for Obama in the state all year.

Romney's seen the same kind of improvement in his image in Colorado that he has throughout the country this month. In September his favorability was a net -6 spread with 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion. That's improved by 5 points to -1 at 48/49. Meanwhile Obama's seen a slight decline in his numbers, with his approval dipping from positive ground at 50/47 to break even at 49/49.

Obama's continuing to lead thanks largely to a 51/42 advantage with independents. There's a large generational gap in Colorado with voters under 65 supporting Obama 51/46, but seniors preferring Romney 55/43. Romney has a narrow advantage with white voters at 50/47, but Obama more than offsets that with big leads among Hispanics (59/38) and other non-white voters (59/29).

Obama has the trust advantage on both the economy (50/46) and Libya (50/44), lending more credence to the thought that Romney botched that issue during the debate on Tuesday.

When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 4% and pulls more from Romney than Obama, pushing the President's lead up to 49/44.

Other notes from Colorado:

Marijuana amendment leads in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C.-- Colorado's constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana usage continues to lead by a 47/38 margin, exactly what we found in the state last month. The ballot language is a little confusing so we also asked a question just in general about whether people think marijuana should be legal and 49% say yes to 43% who dissent.

Democrats (58/24) and independents (54/34) support the amendment at pretty similar levels. Republicans oppose it by a 55/30 margin. There is predictably a wide generational gap on the issue with voters under 65 supporting legalization 50/35, while seniors oppose it by a 53/32 spread.

John Hickenlooper continues to be one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of him to 29% who disapprove. He was at 60/26 in June though, so he has seen a bit of a decline in his standing this summer. He wouldn't have too much to worry about if he was up for reelection this year though. He leads a generic Republican opponent by a 52/38 margin.

Colorado Miscellany

-Colorado's constitutional amendment to legalize marijuana usage continues to lead by a 47/38 margin, exactly what we found in the state last month. The ballot language is a little confusing so we also asked a question just in general about whether people think marijuana should be legal and 49% say yes to 43% who dissent.

Democrats (58/24) and independents (54/34) support the amendment at pretty similar levels. Republicans oppose it by a 55/30 margin. There is predictably a wide generational gap on the issue with voters under 65 supporting legalization 50/35, while seniors oppose it by a 53/32 spread.

-John Hickenlooper continues to be one of the most popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of him to 29% who disapprove. He was at 60/26 in June though, so he has seen a bit of a decline in his standing this summer. He wouldn't have too much to worry about if he was up for reelection this year though. He leads a generic Republican opponent by a 52/38 margin.

-Ambitious Republicans looking to move up the ladder in 2014 might find the Senate race more enticing. Mark Udall has a 39/33 approval rating with a higher than normal 29% of voters having no opinion about him one way or the other. Udall only leads a generic Republican opponent by a 46/42 margin. Depending on the political climate in 2014 this might be a good pick up opportunity for the GOP.

CO voters favor assault weapons ban, legal pot, civil unions

Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado voters are skeptical that any legislative reforms could have prevented the Aurora tragedy—only 35% think it could have, and 58% think it could not have.  But they overwhelmingly support a renewal of the assault weapons ban, 58-35.  52% of independents, 84% of Democrats, and even 38% of Republicans support that.  Favor for a measure to outlaw certain types of body armor and SWAT Team gear is split, with 41% in support and 40% opposed.

Support has also grown for a ballot measure which would legalize and regulate limited production, possession, and use of marijuana.  When PPP polled the state in mid-June, support for the so-called Amendment 64 narrowly outpaced opposition, 46-42.  In PPP’s first poll of likely voters in this fall’s election, almost two months later, support has grown to 47-38.  This movement is entirely because of independents, who were already in favor of the amendment by a 49-40 margin; they now support it by 30 points, 58-28.  Democrats are still slightly more in favor (59-22) than Republicans opposed (26-61).

Colorado Miscellany

-Amendment 64, which would legalize marijuana in the state, continues to lead for passage. It's ahead 47/38 this month, up a tick from 46/42 on our last poll in June. Independents support the measure by a 58/28 spread.

The support for this initiative is unsurprisingly being driven by young people. Voters under 45 support it by a 58/30 margin, while those over 45 oppose it by a 44/39 margin. On the issue of marijuana usage more generally 50% of voters support it with 42% against, numbers that closely track those on the amendment itself.

-In the wake of the Aurora theater shooting 58% of voters say they would support an assault weapons ban to 35% who are opposed. Democrats overwhelmingly support it (84/12), a majority of independents d0 (52/41), and even 38% of Republicans say they favor such a measure. They don't think any gun laws could have prevented the recent shooting though. 58% say no gun laws could have prevented that tragedy compared to just 35% who believe they could have.

Hickenlooper remains one of most popular governors

Raleigh, N.C. – Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper has again been rated as one of the most popular governors in the country.

After polling an impressive 57% approval rating in April, the first-term Democratic governor is now at 60% approval, one of the highest ratings ever recorded for a governor by PPP.

Hickenlooper’s popularity is not limited to Democratic voters—36% of state Republicans and 62% of Independents approve of the governor’s job performance since he took office in 2011.

The Democratic Party in general is doing well in Colorado. If an election for state legislature were held today, Colorado voters say they would vote for Democratic candidates over Republican candidates 46-41. Independents say they favor Democratic legislative candidates over Republican ones, 35-34. Hispanics support Democratic legislative candidates over Republican ones 58-31.