Public Policy Polling

WA-Gov a toss up, Obama and gay marriage well ahead

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Washington poll finds a very close race for Governor, with Democrat Jay Inslee leading Republican Rob McKenna 50-48. Although the margins have been close, Inslee has led all 4 polls we've conducted in Washington since Labor Day.

If Inslee does indeed emerge as the winner on Tuesday it will be because he was able to unify the Democratic base strongly around him. McKenna actually has a 53-42 lead with independents. But for a Republican to win in a blue state like Washington requires a healthy amount of crossover support as well and McKenna's not getting that- Inslee leads 92/6 with Democratic voters.

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-46 in the state. Although Obama's not at any real risk of losing it this is the 5th blue state along with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Oregon  where we've found him doing 10 points worse or more than he did in 2008.

WA-Gov close, Obama, gay marriage, and marijuana lead

PPP's final Washington poll finds a very close race for Governor, with Democrat Jay Inslee leading Republican Rob McKenna 50-48. Although the margins have been close, Inslee has led all 4 polls we've conducted in Washington since Labor Day.

If Inslee does indeed emerge as the winner on Tuesday it will be because he was able to unify the Democratic base strongly around him. McKenna actually has a 53-42 lead with independents. But for a Republican to win in a blue state like Washington requires a healthy amount of crossover support as well and McKenna's not getting that- Inslee leads 92/6 with Democratic voters. Inslee's 9% of Republicans is actually slightly more than the 6% of Democrats McKenna's getting. Also key to Inslee's slight advantage are a 54/43 advantage with women and a 63/32 lead with young voters.

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 53-46 in the state. Although Obama's not at any real risk of losing it this is the 5th blue state along with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Oregon  where we've found him doing 10 points worse or more than he did in 2008. That helps explain why the popular vote continues to look so close even as Obama looks like a pretty good bet in the Electoral College.

Washington appears likely to approve gay marriage on Tuesday. 52% of voters say they plan to vote to approve Senate Bill 6239, while 42% are inclined to reject it. We have found that undecided voters on these marriage questions generally end up voting anti-equality but even given that it looks like a favorite for passage. Every age group supports legalizing gay marriage except for seniors, who oppose it 43/51. Voters under 45 support it by a 57/37 margin.

Obama, Cantwell up big in Washington

Raleigh, N.C. – There has been very little movement in either the presidential or Senate races in Washington since PPP last polled the state in February.

President Obama’s approval rating has not budged an inch.  51% approved and 45% disapproved in both of the most recent surveys.  The inconsequential two-point shift from a 15-point lead (53-38) to a 13-point lead (54-41) has occurred entirely because Romney has consolidated his Republican base.  He led with GOP voters by only a 78-12 margin four months ago, but he has now locked up almost as much of his party as Obama has his.  Obama has 95% of Democrats, and Romney 93% of Republicans.

Obama up 13 in Washington

Barack Obama's ahead by double digits in Washington, another indication that the 2012 election bears more resemblance to 2008 than 2000 or 2004. Obama's at 54% to 41% for Mitt Romney, a 13 point lead that comes closer to his 17 point one in 2008 than the 7 point one in 2004 or 5 point one in 2000 that Democrats had.

Washington voters narrowly approve of the job Obama's doing with 51% giving him good marks to 45% who disapprove. They're not particularly fond of Romney with only 39% of voters rating him favorably to 51% with a negative opinion.

Obama and Romney both have their party base pretty much on lock- 95% of Democrats are committed to Obama and 93% of Republicans say they're going to vote for Romney. Independent voters are putting Obama over the top- he has a 52/36 advantage with them.

Little has changed in Washington since February. Obama's 51/45 approval is exactly the same as it was 4 months ago. Romney's closed the horse race a little bit after trailing 53-38 then, mostly because he's improved from his previous 78% share of the Republican vote.

Democrats are looking solid in the Senate race in Washington as well. Maria Cantwell has a 51-35 lead over likely general election opponent Michael Baumgartner. Cantwell has decent approval numbers with 46% of voters giving her good marks to 39% who disapprove. Baumgartner is a mostly unknown quantity, with 72% of voters having no opinion about him one way or the other.

Cantwell in good shape for Senate re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Senator Maria Cantwell leads her real and potential Republican challengers by double digits, a new poll by Public Policy Polling finds. Cantwell leads State Senator Michael Baumgartner, her only announced challenger, 51%-36%, with 15% undecided. She leads Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant 50%-36%, and she leads perennial loser Dino Rossi 53%-41%.

Cantwell benefits from the extreme lack of name recognition among Baumgartner and Bryant. Just 8% of voters have a favorable opinion of Michael Baumgartner, with 14% unfavorable and a whopping 78% not sure. Bill Bryant is in a similar position, with just a 5% favorable rating, 10% unfavorable and 85% unsure. Dino Rossi naturally has higher name recognition, but voters just don’t like him – 50% view him unfavorably compared to 38% who view him favorably.

Cantwell safe for reelection

Republicans have a lot of Democratic incumbents this year who are pretty good targets, but it doesn't look like Maria Cantwell will be one of them. She has solid approval numbers and weak opposition, and as a result leads all of her potential foes by double digits at this point.

47% of Washington voters approve of the job Cantwell's doing to 38% who disapprove. To put those numbers into some context, our first Washington Senate poll of 2010 found Patty Murray with a 46/45 approval spread. So Cantwell's net approval is 8 points better and Murray of course went on to be reelected by 5 points in what was an otherwise dreadful election year for Democrats.

Cantwell is at 81/10 with Democrats and has a decent amount of crossover popularity with Republicans, 17% of whom approve of her to 65% who disapprove. That support from the GOP helps make up for the fact that she's at 40/43 with independents.

Cantwell leads Michael Baumgartner 51-36 and Bill Bryant 50-36 in hypothetical head to heads. She wins over 90% of the Democratic vote against both of them and takes independents by 9-11 points. She also gets double digit support from Republicans- 10-11%.

Cantwell looks good for re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Leading into 2012, Washington Senator Maria Cantwell appears to be in just as safe shape as she was in the strong Democratic year of 2006, when she won her first re-election bid by 17 points.  She leads five potential opponents by 13-19 points.

Cantwell in good shape

Maria Cantwell appears to be in a solid position for reelection next year, with a 50/36 approval spread and double digit leads against five prominent potential opponents we tested against her.

Cantwell is pretty universally well liked within her own party, at 80/7 with Democrats. She's also on narrowly positive ground with independents at 44/40 and has a 17% approval rating with Republicans, which is a decent amount of crossover support (we generally found Patty Murray with a single digit approval with GOP voters over the course of last year's campaign.)

The Republican who comes closest to Cantwell is an old favorite- Dino Rossi, who trails 53-40. Susan Hutchison and Dave Reichert do next best, both trailing by a 49-35 margin. Clint Didier trails 51-35 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers has the largest deficit at 50-31. Cantwell wins independent voters by 5-12 points in all of the match ups and picks up 8-9% of the Republican vote while only losing 2-5% of the Democratic vote.

Part of the reason Cantwell does so well in these match ups is that she has solid approval numbers. But it's also because none of the Republicans have very much statewide appeal. Hutchison has the 'best' favorability but that's a -5 spread with 19% of voters rating her favorably to 24% with a negative opinion. She's followed by McMorris Rodgers at -8 (13/21) , Reichert at -11 (25/36), Didier at -14 (14/28), and Rossi at -15 (37/52).

Cantwell's reasonably popular and the GOP doesn't have anyone good to run against her. Republicans may have missed out on their one good chance to win a Senate seat in Washington when they came up short against Patty Murray last year.

Full results here

Cantwell in Good Shape for 2012 Re-election

Raleigh, N.C. –  Washington voters give their junior senator, Maria Cantwell, relatively good marks for her job performance, and they favor her over two of her possible 2012 Republican opponents, one of them by double digits.

Cantwell would lead Congressman Dave Reichert, 47-41, and Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers, 49-37.  The big difference is among independents, whose numbers are reversed, depending on the GOP nominee.  They favor Reichert over Cantwell, 44-39, but the incumbent over challenger McMorris Rodgers, 44-38.

Cantwell looking alright

While Patty Murray has a tough fight on her hands for reelection in Washington this year her junior colleague Maria Cantwell appears to be on slightly better ground as she heads for her own 2012 reelection contest. She has better approval numbers than Murray and has outside the margin of error leads against a pair of hypothetical opponents.

Cantwell's approval rating is 46% with 38% of voters disapproving of her. That +8 net approval rating compares favorably to the +1 standing we found for Murray (46/45) earlier this week. Opinions about her break almost completely along party lines with just 9% of Republicans approving and 6% of Democrats disapproving of her. Independents split slightly against her, 39/44.

Tested against a pair of Washington's Republican House members Cantwell leads Dave Reichert 47-41 and Cathy McMorris Rodgers 49-37. McMorris Rodgers is almost a complete unknown statewide at this point with 74% of voters having no opinion of her. Reichert is better known but doesn't have great numbers- 25% of voters across the state have a positive opinion of him while 29% see him negatively. That's largely because Democrats (47%) are more unified in their dislike of Reichert than Republicans (39%) are in seeing him favorably.

Of course 2012 is a long ways away and we wouldn't have said Patty Murray looked vulnerable at this point two years or even one year ago. But it's a good sign for Cantwell that she doesn't have as many voters who dislike her as Murray does, and that she leads these potential contests even in a bad political climate for her party.

Full results here