PPP's new New Hampshire poll finds Donald Trump in the strongest position of any poll we've done anywhere since he entered the race. Trump laps the Republican field with 35% to 11% for John Kasich, 10% for Carly Fiorina, 7% each for Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, 6% for Ben Carson, 4% each for Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, and 3% for Rand Paul. Candidates falling outside the top ten in the state are Rick Perry at 2%, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Rick Santorum at 1%, and Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, and Bobby Jindal all at less than 1%. Everyone does have at least one supporter on this poll.
To give an idea of how fundamentally the contest has shifted over the last four months none of Trump, Kasich, and Fiorina weren't even included in the horse race question when we last polled the state in April. The candidate who's made the most cataclysmic drop is Walker- he's gone from leading at 24% all the way down to 7% in this newest poll.
Three other candidates who've seen dramatic decreases in their support are Cruz, Huckabee, and Paul. Cruz's 10 point drop from 14% to 4% is a little bit misleading. When we last polled the state he was still enjoying the bump he received following his candidacy announcement. It's worse news for Paul- he's declined 8 points from 12% to 4% but more notably he's seen a major blow to his image. In April he had a +29 net favorability rating at 54/25. That's now dropped a remarkable 44 points to a -15 spread at 34/49. We've found Paul under water all four places we've polled since the Republican debate. It's a similarly bad story for Huckabee- he's dropped from 7% to less than 1% and he's also seen his favorability go from +16 at 48/32 to -7 at 34/41. For Paul and Huckabee it's not just that other candidates are passing them by- they are becoming increasingly unpopular themselves.
Trump's advantage over the Republican field is thorough. He leads with Tea Party voters (44%), men (39%), independents (36%), conservatives (36%), voters who are most concerned about electability (35%), both younger voters and seniors (at 34% with each), evangelicals (32%), women (30%), and moderates (29%). Trump has a 56/32 favorability rating and he also leads when you match him with the other Republican hopefuls head to head- it's 47/39 over Ben Carson, 53/35 over Scott Walker, 53/34 over Marco Rubio, and 56/33 over Jeb Bush.
Quick notes on some of the other candidates: