PPP's newest look ahead to the 2016 Presidential race in New Hampshire finds no clear leader. Rand Paul's at 20% to 19% for Chris Christie, 14% for Jeb Bush, 12% for Kelly Ayotte, 10% for Ted Cruz, 7% for Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan, 3% for Bobby Jindal, and 2% for Rick Santorum.
The field we used for this poll is not exactly the same as April- Ayotte and Cruz replaced Susana Martinez and Rick Perry, who had received little support. But at any rate it's clear Marco Rubio has fallen precipitously, from 25% then to his current 7% standing. Paul's dropped by 8 points as well, perhaps because the kind of voters who are attracted to him might also be attracted to Cruz. The potential candidates on the rise are Christie (from 14% to 19%) and Bush (from 7% to 14%).
Paul has a pretty big lead with conservatives, getting 24% to 15% for Bush, 13% for Cruz, 11% for Christie, and 10% for Ayotte. Christie keeps it close overall though because he's dominant with moderates, getting 37% to 16% for Paul and 15% for Ayotte. That goes further in New Hampshire than it would in a lot of other Republican primaries since the open nature of the primary means that more than 40% of voters are independents.
There are two other demographic splits in the poll- Paul leads Christie 25/17 with men, while Christie gets 21% of women to 15% each for Paul and Bush. And Christie leads with seniors at 19% to 17% for Bush and 16% for Paul, while Paul has the advantage with younger voters at 21% to 17% for Christie.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton remains an overwhelming favorite with 57% to 12% for Joe Biden, 11% for Elizabeth Warren, 4% for Cory Booker, 2% for Andrew Cuomo, 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand and Mark Warner, and less than 1% each for Martin O'Malley and Brian Schweitzer. Although Clinton is certainly still in control if she wants the nomination, she's down 11 points from a 68% standing in April. Much of that movement is because Warren has more than doubled her support from 5% then to 11% now.