Public Policy Polling

Hagan continues to lead potential foes

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds voters in the state closely divided on Kay Hagan but supporting her by at least 6 points over all of her potential Republican opponents because they are unknown and/or unpopular.

34% of voters approve of the job Hagan is doing, 36% disapprove, and 31% don't have an opinion one way or the other. A three way split between voters happy, unhappy, and ambivalent toward her has pretty much been the story with her poll numbers ever since she was elected in 2008.

Nevertheless Hagan leads all the potential Republican opponents we tested against her by margins ranging from 6-10 points. The ones who come within 6 points are Renee Ellmers (46/40) and Patrick McHenry (45/39). Virginia Foxx trails by 7 points at 47/40. Coming in 8 points behind are George Holding (45/37) and Robert Pittenger (46/38). Phil Berger is down by 9 points at 47/38 and performing the worst is Thom Tillis with a 10 point deficit at 47/37.

NC GOP voters prefer Foxx for Senate

Raleigh, N.C. – Virginia Foxx tops the wish list of North Carolina Republicans for who they'd like as their Senate candidate next year: 17% pick her to 14% for Sue Myrick, 13% for Patrick McHenry, 11% for Renee Ellmers, 9% for George Holding, 6% for Richard Hudson, 4% for Mark Meadows, and 2% for Thom Tillis. 25% say that they prefer someone else or are unsure.

Foxx is at the head of the line because of her appeal to the 'very conservative' wing of the party. 21% of those voters prefer her to 17% for Myrick and 12% for McHenry. She has very strong support in the Triad. Moderate voters prefer McHenry with 14% picking him to 12% for Foxx and 10% for Myrick. He has strong support in the western part of the state.

It's clear at this point that Republicans really don't have any potential candidates with much of a statewide profile. The highest name recognition any of these folks has is Sue Myrick, and even she's at just 54%.

Foxx tops NC Republican wish list

Virginia Foxx tops the wish list of North Carolina Republicans for who they'd like as their Senate candidate next year: 17% pick her to 14% for Sue Myrick, 13% for Patrick McHenry, 11% for Renee Ellmers, 9% for George Holding, 6% for Richard Hudson, 4% for Mark Meadows, and 2% for Thom Tillis. 25% say that they prefer someone else or are unsure.

Foxx is at the head of the line because of her appeal to the 'very conservative' wing of the party. 21% of those voters prefer her to 17% for Myrick and 12% for McHenry. She has very strong support in the Triad. Moderate voters prefer McHenry with 14% picking him to 12% for Foxx and 10% for Myrick. He has strong support in the western part of the state.

It's clear at this point that Republicans really don't have any potential candidates with much of a statewide profile. The highest name recognition any of these folks has is Sue Myrick, and even she's at just 54%.

These numbers are humiliating for Thom Tillis. He's essentially been running for this seat for the last two years, and if any of these folks should have a big statewide profile it's him after holding town meetings all over the state. Yet he actually has a negative favorability rating among GOP primary voters- 12/17- and ranks in last place among everyone we tested at 2%. Certainly it is very early but his efforts so far haven't made much of an impact.

Kay Hagan leads all of these potential Republican foes at this point. Sue Myrick is the only who comes particularly close, trailing 45/44. Hagan has at least a 6 point advantage over everyone else we tested: 45/39 over Renee Ellmers, 48/40 over Patrick McHenry, 48/39 over George Holding, 49/39 over Virginia Foxx, and 48/38 over Tillis.

Florida and North Carolina going down to the wire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls of the cycle in Florida and North Carolina suggest that they may be the closest states in the country this year.

In Florida Obama leads 50/49, but to be more specific 473 respondents chose Obama and 472 picked Romney. PPP has conducted 4 polls in Florida over the last three weeks and found a 1 point race every time- Obama has been up slightly twice and Romney has been up slightly twice.

It's a similar story in North Carolina- the candidates are tied at 49 there based on rounded numbers, but if you break it out to decimal points Romney's up 49.4% to 49.2% with 457 respondents having chosen him to 455 for Obama. Both states are likely in for a long night on Tuesday. Our last three polls in North Carolina have all come out as ties. Barack Obama has built up a 54/45 lead during the early voting period, but Mitt Romney's ahead 57/41 with those planning to vote on election day. Romney is making up for the registration advantage Democrats in the state have with a 55/40 lead among independent voters.

McCrory continues to lead by 10

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory's lead in the Governor's race holding steady. He's at 47% to 37% for Walter Dalton with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. Those numbers are exactly identical to what they were two weeks ago.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state, with a 47/31 favorability rating. Those numbers are far better than the sitting Governor or either Senator has. McCrory leads by a greater than 2:1 margin among independents, 52-25. He's also taking 18% of the Democratic vote from Dalton while losing just 7% of Republicans.

Incumbents in the other Council of State races appear to be favored for reelection right now, although some of those contests are pretty close. Auditor Beth Wood leads Republican challenger Debra Goldman 40-36 and Treasurer Janet Cowell leads her GOP foe Steve Royal 41-36. Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler looks like a shoo in for reelection with 45% to 35% for Democratic challenger Walter Smith.

McCrory lead steady

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds Pat McCrory's lead in the Governor's race holding steady. He's at 47% to 37% for Walter Dalton with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. Those numbers are exactly identical to what they were two weeks ago.

McCrory continues to be the most popular politician in the state, with a 47/31 favorability rating. Those numbers are far better than the sitting Governor or either Senator has. McCrory leads by a greater than 2:1 margin among independents, 52-25. He's also taking 18% of the Democratic vote from Dalton while losing just 7% of Republicans.

Incumbents in the other Council of State races appear to be favored for reelection right now, although some of those contests are pretty close. Auditor Beth Wood leads Republican challenger Debra Goldman 40-36 and Treasurer Janet Cowell leads her GOP foe Steve Royal 41-36. Republican Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler looks like a shoo in for reelection with 45% to 35% for Democratic challenger Walter Smith.

The closest statewide race could end up being the open seat contest for Lieutenant Governor. There Republican Dan Forest leads Democrat Linda Coleman 38-37. This is the fourth PPP poll of the contest, and all four of them have found the candidates within two points of each other. It's likely to be an extremely close contest.

In the North Carolina Supreme Court race Sam Ervin IV continues to lead with 32% to 24% for incumbent Paul Newby. But the main story in the nonpartisan race is the undecideds- 44% of voters are undecided without having party cues to rely on.

McCrory now up double digits

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's new poll of the North Carolina Governor's race finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton 47-37, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. This is the biggest lead McCrory's had in a PPP survey since Dalton won the Democratic nomination in May.

The key for McCrory is that the attacks on him over the last four months just haven't done much to affect his image. He has a +12 net favorability rating with 46% of voters giving him positive marks to 34% who have a negative opinion. That's not much different from May when he was at +13 (41/28).

McCrory's lead continues to be driven by two major factors: a high level of crossover support from Democrats, and a huge advantage with independents.  McCrory's winning 19% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of Republicans to Dalton. And he's up by a 52/22 margin with independents.

McCrory leads by 10

-PPP's new poll of the North Carolina Governor's race finds Republican Pat McCrory leading Democrat Walter Dalton 47-37, with Libertarian Barbara Howe at 5%. This is the biggest lead McCrory's had in a PPP survey since Dalton won the Democratic nomination in May.

The key for McCrory is that the attacks on him over the last four months just haven't done much to affect his image. He has a +12 net favorability rating with 46% of voters giving him positive marks to 34% who have a negative opinion. That's not much different from May when he was at +13 (41/28).

McCrory's lead continues to be driven by two major factors: a high level of crossover support from Democrats, and a huge advantage with independents.  McCrory's winning 19% of the Democratic vote while losing only 7% of Republicans to Dalton. And he's up by a 52/22 margin with independents.

-The good news for Democrats is that McCrory's strength at the top of the ticket isn't hindering them too much further down the ballot. In three Council of State races with Democratic incumbents we find all of them winning. June Atkinson is up 44-34 on John Tedesco for Superintendent of Public Instruction, Elaine Marshall's up 41-34 on Ed Goodwin for Secretary of State, and Wayne Goodwin's up 41-36 on Mike Causey for Insurance Commissioner. In the one race with a Republican incumbent that we looked at this month Labor Commissioner Cherie Berry leads challenger John Brooks 41-37.

-The most important state race this year besides Governor may actually be for the Supreme Court. In that nonpartisan race the de facto Democrat candidate, Sam Ervin IV, leads the Republican incumbent Paul Newby by a 31-23 margin. The 46% of voters undecided is not terribly surprising in a race where voters can't just go on party labels. Ervin is winning 44% of Democrats while only 37% of Republicans are currently committed to Newby.

N.C. African Americans shift toward same-sex marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – Just days after President Obama’s declaration of support for gay marriage, African Americans in North Carolina are showing a major shift in their views on the issue.

55% of African-Americans believe same-sex couples should either be allowed to marry or form civil unions, up 11 points from the last statewide same-sex marriage poll, conducted May 6. In the pre-primary poll, a majority (51%) of African-Americans said there should be no legal recognition of gay couples in North Carolina, but that number has dropped to 39%.

NC voters on Edwards, the future of gay marriage, fracking

Raleigh, N.C. – -Although they dislike him and think he's guilty of the charges that have been brought against him, North Carolinians think the prosecution of John Edwards has been a waste of taxpayer money.

56% of voters in the state believe the efforts against Edwards have been a waste compared to just 27% who think they've been a good use of public resources. There's actually a bipartisan consensus on that front. Democrats (66/18), independents (48/32), and Republicans (47/37) all concur that this has not been money well spent.