PPP's newest North Carolina Senate poll finds the race steady compared to a month ago. Kay Hagan continues to lead by 4 points, with 44% to 40% for Thom Tillis and 5% for Libertarian Sean Haugh. Haugh's impact on the race is waning- since June his support has dropped from 11% now down to this 5% standing. He's also no longer disproportionately drawing supporters away from Tillis- when Haugh's supporters are reallocated to who they would choose between Hagan and Tillis, Hagan continues to hold a 4 point lead at 46/42.
Hagan's image is improving some as the election nears. She still has a negative approval rating at 43/48, but that's an improvement from the 40/50 spread she had in July. And her net approval is still a good deal better than Tillis' -14 net favorability- 34% of voters see him favorably to 48% with an unfavorable opinion. He's seen steady improvement in his numbers as well after being at a 24/47 spread in July, but continues to find himself in a worse position than Hagan.
Hagan continues to have a massive advantage with women at 49/33, while Tillis is ahead 48/38 with men. Hagan trails only 49/35 with white voters, numbers that will generally get a Democrat elected statewide in North Carolina, and leads 77/7 with African Americans. Hagan has a 41/33 lead with independents that helps her make up for Tillis getting 13% of the Democratic vote while Hagan gets just 7% of Republicans.
One issue that likely continues to be problematic for Tillis is the minimum wage. North Carolinians support it being increased to $10 an hour by a 57/34 margin, including 52/37 with independents. Barack Obama's continued unpopularity still has the potential to cause Hagan trouble with late deciding voters though- it's 42/55 overall and with those who haven't made their minds up yet it's 25/61. This remains a close race and despite the good run of polling for Hagan over the last week still probably belongs in the toss up category.
Other notes from North Carolina: