Public Policy Polling

Democrats set to win Massachusetts, Connecticut Senate races

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Massachusetts and Connecticut find that Democrats are likely to pick up the Senate seat in the former and hold onto the open seat in the latter. Elizabeth Warren leads Scott Brown 52-46 in the Massachusetts contest, while Chris Murphy has a 52-43 advantage over Linda McMahon in Connecticut.

Scott Brown has a 52/36 approval rating. Usually Senators with those kinds of approval numbers are safe for reelection. But Warren needed to do 2 things in this campaign: solidify the Democratic vote behind her and reduce Brown's advantage with independents. She's succeeded on both of those fronts. 84% of Democrats are planning to vote for her, only slightly less than the 88% of Republicans Brown's winning. And Warren's deficit with independents is only 21 points at 59-38. Our final poll of the 2010 Massachusetts Senate special election found Brown defeating Martha Coakley 64-32 with them so Warren's really made up a fair amount of ground on that front.

Warren lead up to 6 points, Obama’s down to 14

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds two races going in opposite directions- Mitt Romney's cut Barack Obama's lead to its smallest level in the state all year. But at the same time Elizabeth Warren's built her advantage out to the widest margin we've ever found.

Warren leads Scott Brown 50-44. The big change over the last month is that Brown's image is finally starting to take a hit. His approval rating is now a +7 spread at 49/42, down a net 14 points from mid-September when he was at 55/34.

The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.

Warren up 6, Obama up 14 in Massachusetts

PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds two races going in opposite directions- Mitt Romney's cut Barack Obama's lead to its smallest level in the state all year. But at the same time Elizabeth Warren's built her advantage out to the widest margin we've ever found.

Warren leads Scott Brown 50-44. The big change over the last month is that Brown's image is finally starting to take a hit. His approval rating is now a +7 spread at 49/42, down a net 14 points from mid-September when he was at 55/34. There's an increasing sense that he's been more a partisan voice for the national Republican Party (45%) than an independent voice for Massachusetts (44%). That's a 10 point shift from our last poll when voters thought 49/40 that he'd been more of an independent voice.

The biggest thing that continues to make it very hard for Brown to win this race is that 52% of voters in the state want Democrats to have control of the US Senate to 35% who want the Republicans in control. Warren is now winning the Democratic vote 82/13, erasing most of the crossover support that Brown had earlier in the year.

Republicans have been very consistent in referring to Elizabeth Warren as a professor over the last year but that may not be the best framing. 57% of Massachusetts voters have a favorable opinion of college professors to 19% with a negative one. The breakdown is 79/5 among Democrats, but GOP voters do have a negative opinion of professors with 33% rating them favorably to 42% with a unfavorable opinion.

In the Presidential race Barack Obama's seeing the same kind of decline in Massachusetts that he is nationally. He leads Mitt Romney by 14 points, 55-41. That's down from an 18 point lead last month, and it's the smallest advantage we've found for him in the state all year. The big shift over the last month in Massachusetts has been among independent voters. They now support Romney 53-40, after giving Obama a 47-44 edge last month.

Romney trails by 18 in Massachusetts

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 57-39, up a tick from last month when the spread was 55-39. A lot of the internal numbers on the poll are pretty brutal for Romney. Only 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. Only 23% consider him to be a Bay Stater, to 67% who do not. They say by a 42/44 margin that they disapprove of the work he did as Governor, and by a 55/36 spread they think Deval Patrick has been a better leader for the state than he was. (Patrick has a solid 51/37 approval rating.) There aren't a lot of positives to take out of this poll for Romney.

Massachusetts' ballot initiatives on both assisted suicide (58/25) and medical marijuana (60/27) continue to lead for passage by wide margins. What's interesting about these is that both of them have support across party lines. Democrats (61/22), independents (61/22), and Republicans (47/38) all favor the assisted suicide measure. And it's the same story when it comes to medical marijuana with Democrats (67/20), independents (59/27), and Republicans (45/41) all expressing support.

Massachusetts Miscellany

-PPP's newest Massachusetts poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 57-39, up a tick from last month when the spread was 55-39. A lot of the internal numbers on the poll are pretty brutal for Romney. Only 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 58% with a negative one. Only 23% consider him to be a Bay Stater, to 67% who do not. They say by a 42/44 margin that they disapprove of the work he did as Governor, and by a 55/36 spread they think Deval Patrick has been a better leader for the state than he was. (Patrick has a solid 51/37 approval rating.) There aren't a lot of positives to take out of this poll for Romney.

-Massachusetts' ballot initiatives on both assisted suicide (58/25) and medical marijuana (60/27) continue to lead for passage by wide margins. What's interesting about these is that both of them have support across party lines. Democrats (61/22), independents (61/22), and Republicans (47/38) all favor the assisted suicide measure. And it's the same story when it comes to medical marijuana with Democrats (67/20), independents (59/27), and Republicans (45/41) all expressing support.

-Massachusetts voters like John Kerry. He has a 52/35 approval rating and would lead a generic Republican 54-33 in a head to head match up, suggesting he should be reelected easily in 2014 if he wants to be. Voters aren't thrilled about the idea of him becoming Secretary of State though- 30% say they would like him to move into that office while 48% would not and 22% don't have an opinion either way.

Obama up in Massachusetts

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in the state where Romney was Governor from 2003-2007. The President holds a 55-39 lead over Romney in Massachusetts, numbers completely unchanged from PPP’s last poll of the state in June.

Voters in Massachusetts simply like Obama better than Romney. Obama’s job approval rating sits at 55% approval and 41% disapproval. By contrast only 39% of voters have a favorable view of Mitt Romney while 55% have an unfavorable view. Voters also have a disapproving view of the work Romney did while Governor of the Bay State – 42% say they approve of it and 46% disapprove. Additionally, a full 2/3 of voters – 66% - say they do not consider Romney to be a Bay Stater while just 23% do. 51% say Deval Patrick was a better Governor of Massachusetts and 42% choose Romney.

Obama holds modest lead in Massachusetts

PPP's newest Presidential poll in Massachusetts finds no change in the race from June. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney by 16 points, 55-39. This would seem to suggest that Elizabeth Warren's poor numbers in our Senate release yesterday are more specific to her race than an indication of a general downward trend in the fortunes of Massachusetts Democrats.

Massachusetts voters simply don't think much of their former Governor. Only 39% of voters have a favorable opinion of Romney to 55% with an unfavorable one. They don't look back on his tenure as chief executive very fondly- 42% approve of the work he did in that job but 46% disapprove. And they don't really consider him to be a Bay Stater anyway- 23% consider him one of their own while 66% do not.

Romney can't match the Scott Brown formula for being successful as a Republican in a blue state. Where Brown leads Elizabeth Warren by 26 points with independents, Romney trails Obama by a point with them at 46-45. And Romney's 10% of the Democratic vote is half of the 20% Brown is earning right now.

Romney's not even the more popular member of the Republican ticket in Massachusetts. Paul Ryan's net favorability of -12 (37/49) is four points better than Romney's -16.

Even if Romney was well liked, Obama is pretty strong on his own merits in Massachusetts. 55% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 41% who disapprove, some of the best numbers we've found for him anywhere in the country lately.

Other notes from Massachusetts:

MA okay with gay marriage, Sox fans with Bobby V

Raleigh, N.C. – As everywhere, public opinion is moving toward same-sex marriage in Massachusetts, which is one of only a few states where it is legal.  62% want it to be legal and only 30% illegal, up from 58-31 in March, 60-30 last September, and 59-33 last June.

Even two-thirds of those who do not like that gay marriage is offered by the state think gay couples should at least have the option of civil unions with the same legal rights.  Overall, 88% of Massachusetts voters think same-sex couples should be able to form a legal union, whatever it is called.

Most voters do not think the advent of gay marriage has had any impact on their lives.  64% said it has not affected their own day-to-day lives at all, and more (20%) say it has had a positive effect than a negative one (16%).  That is consistent with numbers when the same question was asked in the previous two polls.  Even 59% of those who think it should be illegal again say it has not curbed their lifestyle.

Massachusetts Miscellany

-Support is growing for the legalization of medical marijuana in Massachusetts, which is likely to be on the ballot this fall. 57% of voters say they are in favor of it to 33% who are opposed, representing an increase in support from March when the spread was 53/35. This breaks down very much as a generational issue with all three age groups under 65 giving it more than 60% support, but seniors opposed by a 47/39 margin.

Voters are also leaning toward legalizing assisted suicide in the state, but it looks like that one will be a lot closer. Right now 45% say they support that to 36% who are opposed.

-53% of voters approve of John Kerry to 38% who disapprove of him, a slight improvement from his 50/38 spread on PPP's March Massachusetts poll. Kerry narrowly edges out Scott Brown, 47-43, when voters are asked who their favorite Senator is. That speaks to how tight the Senate race would be this fall no matter who the Democrats had on the ballot- Brown is an extremely formidable politician. Deval Patrick has a 49% approval rating with 43% of voters disapproving of him.

-Massachusetts was already more supportive of gay marriage than just about any state in the country, but that support has increased further over the last three months. 62% of voters now say they support gay marriage being legal to only 30% who think it should be illegal. That's up from a 58/31 spread in March.

Most voters in the state say that the legalization of gay marriage there has not been a big deal- 64% say it's had no impact on their lives to 20% who think it's been a positive thing and 16% who believe it's been negative. Even among voters opposed to gay marriage 61% grant that its being legal hasn't affected their lives at all.

-2014 could bring the redemption of the much derided Martha Coakley if she decided to run for Governor.

Massachusetts voters happy with gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – A majority of voters in Massachusetts feel that gay marriage should be legal, and only 12% say that there should be no legal recognition at all of a gay couple’s relationship, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. When asked whether they think gay marriage should be legal or illegal, 58% of Massachusettes voters say legal and 31% say illegal. A total of 86% support either gay marriage or civil unions with just 12% supporting no legal recognition of gay couples. Two-thirds of voters – 67% – say that the legalization of gay marriage in Massachusetts “hasn’t made any impact at all” on their lives, with 19% saying it’s had a positive impact and 14% saying it’s had a negative one.

Martha Coakley looks to be the frontrunner for the 2014 Gubernatorial election in Massachusetts. She has the highest favorability ratings of any prospective candidate, at 49% favorable and 30% unfavorable. Massachusetts Treasurer Steve Grossman is less well-known at just 21/15. Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray sees a net negative favorability rating at 22/31. And former Republican Gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker seems to have receded into the background – his ratings are just 19% favorable, 27% unfavorable, and 53% of voters are not sure about him. Coakley does the best of the three Democrats against Baker – she leads him 49-29. Grossman leads Baker by a smaller margin at 37-30, and Murray leads Baker 37-32.