Public Policy Polling

McCaskill up narrowly, Romney and Nixon by wider margins

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

McCaskill leads by 4, Romney and Nixon up comfortably

PPP's final Missouri poll finds Claire McCaskill holding on to a narrow lead over Todd Akin, 48-44. Libertarian Jonathan Dine is polling at 6%. Since our last poll two weeks ago McCaskill's gained 2 points, while Akin's seen a 4 point increase in his support.

Akin's image isn't getting any better. He now has a 29% favorability rating with 56% of voters rating him unfavorably, the worst numbers we've found for him to date. Nevertheless Republicans are starting to unify around him a little bit more as the election approaches- he's gone from getting 74% of his party vote on our last poll to now 79%. He's also pulled even with independents at 46%, although he's still running 19 points behind Mitt Romney on that front.

Akin's chances at pulling off an upset comeback victory may depend on whether Dine really gets 6% at the polls on Tuesday. His voters support Mitt Romney 70/25 over Barack Obama and Dave Spence 61/34 over Jay Nixon, so clearly he's pulling from folks who otherwise would have voted Republican. The Dine voters hate Akin- only 12% see him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion. But they hate McCaskill too- only 8% approve of the job she's doing to 67% who disapprove. If they stay with Dine, McCaskill wins. If they decide the desire for a Republican Senate outweighs their disgust for Akin, then Akin has a chance.

This race has one of the biggest gender gaps we've seen all year, with McCaskill leading 55/38 among women while Akin has a 52/38 lead with men. McCaskill's lead is largely built on the fact that 91% of Democrats support her while only 79% of Republicans support Akin. Akin is up 51/43 with whites, while McCaskill leads 90/6 with African Americans.

McCaskill lead steady at 6 points

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds little change from three weeks ago. Claire McCaskill leads Todd Akin 46-40. The only shift is Libertarian Jonathan Dine's support dropping from 9% to 6% with those folks moving into the undecided column.

There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.

McCaskill continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of her to 51% who disapprove. Still that's a significant improvement over the last couple months. In late August we found her at a 40/55 spread.

McCaskill continues to lead by 6

PPP's newest poll of the Missouri Senate race finds little change from three weeks ago. Claire McCaskill leads Todd Akin 46-40. The only shift is Libertarian Jonathan Dine's support dropping from 9% to 6% with those folks moving into the undecided column.

There were a lot of reasons to think this race might shift back toward Todd Akin as the furor over his controversial comments in August died down. But his image has actually just continued to get worse as the election approaches. 31% of voters now say they have a favorable opinion of him to 57% with a negative one. It was a 33/55 spread earlier this month.

McCaskill continues to be unpopular with 44% of voters approving of her to 51% who disapprove. Still that's a significant improvement over the last couple months. In late August we found her at a 40/55 spread so her lead over Akin isn't completely a function of him putting his foot in his mouth- McCaskill's become stronger on her own merits as well.

There are still a few reasons to think this race is not over. By a 48/41 margin Missouri voters would like for Republicans to have control of the US Senate. Those numbers suggest that Akin is about 13 points worse than an average GOP candidate would be. Still they also give Akin and his allies a strong message they could try to hammer home in the final two weeks to win over some of the folks who don't care for him but might not dislike him so much they want to keep Democrats in control of the Senate. Also the undecideds in the Senate race support Mitt Romney over Barack Obama 81-13. Maybe they'll leave the Senate race blank in the end but if they end up grudgingly voting for Akin it would make the race basically tied.

We said all these same things when we released our poll three weeks ago though and there hasn't been any movement towards Akin since then so a shift toward him may or may not ultimately materialize.

Nixon towers above Spence in Missouri

Raleigh, N.C. – The “Show Me” state is ready to show its enthusiasm to vote on November 6.  A recent poll in the state shows that 85% of Missouri voters are excited to vote in the November election.  61% of those surveyed identify as ‘very excited’ to vote.  Missouri voters are already showing their enthusiasm and support for their state Democratic candidates.

Jay Nixon takes the cake for Governor of Missouri in the upcoming election.  In the past six weeks Nixon has created an even larger gap between himself and his Republican opponent, Dave Spence.  When polled in August, Nixon was ahead of Spence by 9 points (46-37).  Now, if the election were held today, Nixon is favored by 19 points (54-35).  Although Spence called Nixon the ‘Captain of the Titanic’ during the September 21 debate, it’s apparent that Spence’s campaign is clearly set to fail.

Nixon cruising to reelection

-PPP's newest poll of the race for Governor in Missouri finds Democratic incumbent Jay Nixon cruising to reelection. He leads by 19 points with 54% to 35% for Republican challenger Dave Spence. This is the biggest lead PPP has found for Nixon since January.

Nixon continues to be one of the more popular Governors in the country with 54% of voters approving of him to 29% who disapprove. Spence continues to be widely unknown. 45% of voters don't have an opinion about him one way or another. Among those do 25% see him favorably, while 30% have a negative view.

Nixon has the Democratic vote pretty much locked down, 87/7. He also has a commanding 54/31 lead with independent voters, and is winning a much higher than normal 23% of the Republican vote across party lines.

-The greatest intrigue in state level races this year may come from the contest for Lieutenant Governor. Republican incumbent Peter Kinder holds a small lead over Democratic challenger Susan Montee, 42-38. Kinder's lead is down a tick from 7 points the last time PPP looked at the race in late August. Key for Kinder is that he's winning the GOP vote 77/7 despite his less than impressive victory in the primary- the party unified around him quickly. Still this looks like it should be a close race.

Romney, Nixon lead in Missouri

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama came awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in 2008 don't look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney by a 10 point margin, 52-42.

Missouri's one state where Paul Ryan's selection might really be helping the GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we've found that to be the case since Romney announced his selection.

Romney's substantial lead comes for 3 reasons. 1) He leads 49-43 with independents. Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 2) 86% of GOP voters are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him. And 3) The state's moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.

The rest of the Missouri poll...

Barack Obama came awfully close to winning Missouri in 2008, but his chances of doing it again in 2008 don't look very good. Our newest poll there finds him trailing Mitt Romney by a 10 point margin, 52-42.

Missouri's one state where Paul Ryan's selection might really be helping the GOP ticket. He has a 48/40 favorability rating there, better poll numbers than Obama, Romney, or Joe Biden has in the state. Voters there even narrowly support the Ryan Plan, 41/38, the first place where we've found that to be the case since Romney announced his selection.

Romney's substantial lead comes for 3 reasons:

1) He leads 49-43 with independents.

2) Republicans are more unified than Democrats. 86% of GOP voters are committed to Romney, while Obama has only 82% of Democrats behind him.

3) The state's moved to the right since 2008 and we find that the electorate is likely to be much more Republican friendly this time around.

Romney has narrowly positive favorability numbers at 48/45. Obama is deeply unpopular in the state with only 42% of voters approving of him to 55% who disapprove.

Thing are looking better for Democrats in the Governor's race. Jay Nixon leads Republican challenger Dave Spence 46-37, numbers pretty similar to PPP's last poll in late May which found Nixon ahead 45-34. Nixon is one of the most popular Governors in the country with 53% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 28% who disapprove. Most notably he breaks almost even with Republicans at 38/39, and he's at 54/25 with independents.

Nixon leads Spence, Randles by big but shrinking margins

Raleigh, N.C. – Jay Nixon has managed to move himself up in the rankings of the most popular governors in the country but lose ground in his re-election bid since PPP last polled Missouri in January.  But he still remains a solid favorite for another term against two leading Republicans who are still almost completely unknown to the general electorate.

46% of Show-Me State voters like their governor’s work, and 29% dislike it, versus his 44-31 approval spread four months ago.  He has inched up with his own party and with independents, and he retains unusually strong crossover support—29% of Republicans approve to 39% who disapprove.

But, at the same time, his two potential opponents have creeped up on him in the horseraces, and once a GOP nominee is chosen and is able to broaden his public profile, the race could close further.  Nixon leads frontrunner Dave Spence by 11 points (45-34), down from 20  points in the last survey (47-27).  He tops Bill Randles by 14 (46-32).

MO-Gov tightens, but Nixon still up double digits

Jay Nixon continues to have a double digit lead against his two main Republican opponents for reelection as Governor of Missouri...but the race has tightened up some since late January. Nixon leads Dave Spence by 11 points, 45-34, and has a 14 point advantage over Bill Randles at 46-32.  Those leads are down from 20 points over Spence and 18 over Randles the last time PPP polled the race.

The main reason the race has gotten closer is Republicans starting to unify some around their candidates as the election nears. Spence has improved from 54% to 69% of the GOP vote, and Randles has gone from 58% to 63%. Also, although Nixon continues to have a double digit advantage over both of his rivals with independents, it's not as large as it used to be. He's up 14 on Spence with them compared to 26 on the previous poll, and 17 on Randles compared to 22 last time.

Spence is now looking like a pretty strong favorite for the Republican nomination, although a plurality of voters remain undecided. He's at 32% to 11% for Randles, 4% for Fred Sauer, and 1% for John Weiler. Compared to our last poll of the race Spence has gained 20 points while Randles has dropped by 4. 43% of voters remain undecided but the direction the contest is headed in is pretty clear.