Public Policy Polling

Baldwin leads Wisconsin Senate race by 4

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a 49-45 margin. That represents a nine point reversal from a month ago when Thompson led 49-44.

Baldwin's image has improved a little bit in the last month with her favorability rating improving from 40% to 44%. Her unfavorable number has remained steady at 45%. But the bigger reason for the shift is that Thompson's image has taken a major hit. Last month he had a net +3 favorability rating with 46% of voters rating him positively to 43% with a negative opinion. He's dropped a net 11 points since that time and now just 42% see him positively to 50% with an unfavorable view.

Baldwin's turned a small deficit with independents last month (45-42) into a slight advantage with them this month (46-44). And she's more than doubled her share of the Republican vote from 4% to 10%.

Baldwin leads Thompson by 4

-PPP's newest poll of the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tammy Baldwin leading Tommy Thompson by a 49-45 margin. That represents a nine point reversal from a month ago when Thompson led 49-44.

Baldwin's image has improved a little bit in the last month with her favorability rating improving from 40% to 44%. Her unfavorable number has remained steady at 45%. But the bigger reason for the shift is that Thompson's image has taken a major hit. Last month he had a net +3 favorability rating with 46% of voters rating him positively to 43% with a negative opinion. He's dropped a net 11 points since that time and now just 42% see him positively to 50% with an unfavorable view.

Baldwin's turned a small deficit with independents last month (45-42) into a slight advantage with them this month (46-44). And she's more than doubled her share of the Republican vote from 4% to 10%.

By a 47/43 margin voters say they want Democrats to have control of the US Senate and the actual Baldwin/Thompson numbers are tracking that pretty closely.

-Things are increasingly looking bad for Mitt Romney and Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, but Scott Walker just continues to roll along. He has a 50/46 approval rating and leads a generic Democratic opponent for reelection by a 50/44 margin, numbers very similar to what happened in June's recall election. The problems other key Republicans are having in the state aren't rubbing off on Walker. Wisconsin voters continue to be very closely divided at the state level- 46% say they plan to vote for Democratic legislative candidates this fall to 44% who prefer Republicans.

Thompson starts with five-point lead over Baldwin

Raleigh, N.C. – Tommy Thompson has emerged from his hard-fought and somewhat surprising primary victory with a five-point lead over Democratic nominee Tammy Baldwin (49-44).  When PPP last polled the potential Senate match-up in early July, the two were tied at 45%.

In the last month and a half, Baldwin’s personal numbers have gotten a bit worse.  37% saw her favorably and 39% unfavorably in the last poll; the spread is now 40-45.  Democrats have rallied around her, but Republicans even more against her.  For Thompson, the trend has been the opposite.  His numbers are up from 40-47 to 46-43 thanks to a huge boost from his base.

To go along with that, Thompson now leads 93-4 with Republican voters, up from 84-7 before the primary.  Baldwin’s near-lock on her base has not changed (88-7).  Independents have moved a hair from a 43-all tie to a 45-42 Thompson edge.

Wisconsin Miscellany

PPP's newest poll on the Wisconsin Senate race finds Tommy Thompson getting a bounce following his win in the Republican primary last week. He now leads Tammy Baldwin 49-44. Our last poll in early July had found them tied at 45%.

The main thing that's changed over the last six weeks is GOP voters getting on the same page. Thompson now leads by 89 points with Republicans, 93-4. Previously he had just a 77 point lead with them at 84-7. Clearly there are no lingering party unity issues despite Thompson's relatively low winning percentage in the primary. Thompson also leads by 3 points with independents, 45-42, after trailing 44-36 with them a month ago.

Thompson's net favorability has improved 10 points from last month. 46% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 43% with a negative one after the spread was previously 40/47. Most of that shift is a product of party unification after the primary- he's gone from 60/26 to 80/12 with Republicans. Baldwin has a narrowly negative favorability rating with 40% of voters rating her positively to 45% with an unfavorable opinion.

45% of Wisconsin voters say they want Republicans to have control of the US Senate to 44% for Democrats, so Thompson may be running a little bit ahead of a generic GOP candidate but this isn't a situation like Massachusetts where if Democrats can sufficiently nationalize the election Baldwin's position will improve significantly.

Baldwin's sexuality doesn't seem to be too much of an issue in the race. 64% of voters say they're open to supporting a gay candidate for office to only 23% who say they are not. Democrats (82/10) and independents (71/16) are overwhelmingly fine with supporting gay candidates. A plurality of Republicans (44%) say they aren't open to ever voting for a gay candidate to 39% who are, but those folks wouldn't likely be voting for Baldwin this year anyway.

Wisconsin narrowly opposes gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. -- Wisconsin voters believe by a 47% to 43% margin that gay marriage should be illegal, according to the latest PPP poll in the state. That represents an increase in support for gay marriage since last August when 50% of voters opposed it and only 39% were in support. When more specific positions were offered, 69% believed that gay couples should either be able to marry or form a civil union, while 28% opposed any sort of legal recognition for gay couples.

Green Bay emerged as the state’s most popular city, scoring a 68% to 7% favorability rating. Republicans in the state gave Green Bay their highest marks with a +67 net favorable score for the home of the Packers. Democrats gave the city a slightly more tepid +47 mark, reserving their best for Madison, which they approved of by 66 points. GOP voters disapproved of the capital more than 2 to 1.

Both beer and cheese asserted their overwhelming popularity in Wisconsin, with beer scoring a net favorable rating of +47 and cheese barely outpacing it at +52. However, when forced to decide between the two, voters chose cheese in a landslide, 64% to 18%. Beer saw its highest unfavorables come from young voters, with 32% of Wisconsinites aged 18 to 29 expressing an unfavorable opinion of the beverage, compared to 19% for the population as a whole.

Wisconsin miscellaneous

We're finding public opinion on same-sex marriage moving rapidly towards acceptance just about everywhere, with the pace of opinion change accelerating.  Wisconsin is no exception.  Badger State voters still oppose gay marriage being legal, but by a much narrower margin than when PPP last asked about it less than a year ago.  Last August, 39% wanted same-sex marriage to be legal and half illegal.  That spread is now only 43-47.  Republicans are almost identically opposed as then (12-81), but Democrats are up from 62% to 68% support and independents from 42% to 47%.  The latter group is now in favor (47-39), when they were narrowly opposed 11 months ago (42-44).

69% of Wisconsinites want same-sex couples to at least have civil unions, up from 67% previously.  That includes 78% of Democrats, 75% of independents, and even 48% of Republicans.

Even though they have just been through a tumultuous two years of recall elections, Wisconsin still stands by its right to have them.  51% thinks the state should still be able to hold recalls, with 40% opposed.  That is down a tick from 53-41 in February.  After Scott Walker's survival, support from Republicans is up from 16% to 24%, outweighing a decline in support from Democrats (down from 86% to 77%) and independents (51% from 56%).

WI wants Dems to control State Senate, supports recalls

Raleigh, N.C. – A new poll by Public Policy Polling finds that Wisconsin voters would prefer that Democrats control the State Senate rather than Republicans, 48%-41%.  Nearly all Democratic and Republican voters want their own party to control the chamber, but the scales are tipped by independent voters who say they would rather Democrats run the State Senate by a 45%-31% margin.

As controversy continues to swirl around a possible upcoming recall election of Governor Scott Walker, voters say that in general, they think Wisconsin should have recall elections by a 53%-41% margin.  Democrats support the idea of recall elections 86%-9%, Republicans oppose recall elections 16%-78%, and independents support them 56%-37%.

Wisconsin Miscellany

-Wisconsin voters, by a 48-41 margin, would prefer that Democrats have control of the State Senate over Republicans. That could bode well for the party's prospects in recall elections over the next few months. Democrats have the edge largely due to a 45-31 advantage with independents.

-Herb Kohl is heading into retirement as one of the most popular Senators in the country. 54% of voters approve of him to 28% who disapprove. Out of around 90 sitting Senators PPP's polled on, only 14 have higher approval ratings. Kohl's at an impressive 61/22 with independents and even has a 19% approval rating with Republicans, unusually high in arguably the nation's most polarized state.

-Ron Johnson gets mixed reviews as he starts his second year in the Senate. 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing, 35% disapprove, and 29% have no opinion about him. Republicans are still very enthusiastic about him, approving 72/4, but he doesn't have much support from Democrats or independents.

WI prefers Occupy to Tea Party

Raleigh, N.C. – Much like nationally and in the states where PPP has asked about the movement so far, Badger State voters are not thrilled about Occupy Wall Street, but they do see it better than the Tea Party movement.  Here, 39% support O.W.S.’s goals, and 38% oppose them, compared to 40-47 for the Tea Party.  Asked of which group they have a higher opinion, voters side narrowly with Occupy, 42-40.  The Democratic slant of the state’s electorate makes a difference here, as Republicans more emphatically prefer the Tea Party (81%) than Democrats O.W.S. (75%), while independents split 39-38 for the Tea Party.

Wisconsin Miscellany

-Paul Ryan's favorability numbers have seen some recovery over the last few months as he's receded a little bit from the national spotlight. 40% of Wisconsin voters now express a favorable opinion of him to 35% with a negative one. That represents a 10 point improvement on the margin from May when he was at 41/46.  His numbers are better across the party spectrum, but he remains extremely polarizing with Republicans rating him favorably 73/4, and Democrats rating him unfavorably 7/64. A 44/33 standing with independents helps to put him on positive ground overall.

I'm not sure what this improvement in his numbers says for Ryan's political future.  Certainly a politician with these kinds of favorability ratings can win statewide office in Wisconsin, but it doesn't bode well for Ryan moving forward if his image is going to tank any time he's in the spotlight.