Public Policy Polling

Coloradans support gay marriage

Raleigh, N.C. – A majority of Coloradans support legalizing gay marriage, and only 22% feel there should be no legal recognition at all of same sex couples, a new poll from Public Policy Polling finds. 53% of Colorado voters say same sex marriage should be legal and 40% say it should be illegal. Voters also say they would support the Colorado legislature passing a bill that would let same-sex couples form civil unions by a 62-32 margin. When asked whether they support gay marriage, civil unions but not gay marriage, or no legal recognition at all of same sex couples, 47% choose legal gay marriage, 28% say civil unions and just 22% say there should be no legal recognition whatsoever of gay couples.

“Colorado is another in a growing number of states where polls show voters are rapidly shifting towards supporting legal gay marriage,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

Colorado Miscellany

-Colorado voters strongly support a bill in the legislature that would create civil unions for same sex couples in the state. 62% favor the proposal to only 32% who are opposed. Democrats (83/13) and independents (75/19) are pretty unanimously supportive, as are a third of Republicans (31/61).

A majority of Coloradans are actually willing to take it a step further and just legalize gay marriage. 53% of voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal to only 40% who believe it should be illegal.

There are two things in the crosstabs on gay marriage that really stand out. Voters under 30 think gay marriage should be legal by a 77/23 margin, and independents support it by a 61/32 spread as well. That should be a real warning sign to the GOP that continuing to tack right on this issue is going to significantly hurt its ability to appeal both to the next generation of voters and to swing voters who are somewhere between moderate and liberal on social issues.

We already see Colorado shading bluer and bluer at the Presidential level and this is one of the issues where Republicans seem to be stuck behind while the electorate is moving forward.

-John Hickenlooper continues to be one of the most popular Governors in the country with a 57% approval rating to 24% who disapprove of him. That +33 spread ties him with Nebraska's Dave Heineman as the most well liked chief executive we've polled on this year. Hickenlooper has strong support from Democrats (73/9) and independents (62/24), but what really sets him apart from the field is that he comes close to breaking even with Republicans (37/40). That's a rare feat these days.

NC voters on Edwards, the future of gay marriage, fracking

Raleigh, N.C. – -Although they dislike him and think he's guilty of the charges that have been brought against him, North Carolinians think the prosecution of John Edwards has been a waste of taxpayer money.

56% of voters in the state believe the efforts against Edwards have been a waste compared to just 27% who think they've been a good use of public resources. There's actually a bipartisan consensus on that front. Democrats (66/18), independents (48/32), and Republicans (47/37) all concur that this has not been money well spent.

North Carolina Miscellany

-Although they dislike him and think he's guilty of the charges that have been brought against him, North Carolinians think the prosecution of John Edwards has been a waste of taxpayer money.

56% of voters in the state believe the efforts against Edwards have been a waste compared to just 27% who think they've been a good use of public resources. There's actually a bipartisan consensus on that front. Democrats (66/18), independents (48/32), and Republicans (47/37) all concur that this has not been money well spent.

That sentiment certainly isn't a reflection of sympathy for Edwards though. 57% of voters think he's guilty of the crimes he's been charged with to only 11% who believe he's innocent. Despite the fact that he's already been convinced in the court of public opinion, 59% of North Carolinians still think he can get a fair trial in the state to only 24% who think he can not.

Edwards, although still one of the most unpopular figures in the history of PPP polling, has actually seen some minor improvement in his personal image over the last year. His net favorability is -62 at 11/73...but last June it was -72 at 9/81.

-North Carolinians agree with Speaker Thom Tillis- they think gay marriage will be legal in the state 20 years from now. 45% think the state will have gay marriage a generation from now compared to 41% who think it will continue to be illegal. Independent voters are the most optimistic for gay marriage (54/29) while Democrats think it will become a reality as well (52/35). Republicans (29% legal, 56% illegal) think the status quo will still rule in a couple of decades.

Gingrich takes the lead in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP's last poll of the race in early October.  Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%.  Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

Newt up in Iowa

Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's newest poll of Iowa Republican caucus voters with 27% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Rick Perry, 6% for Rick Santorum, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Gingrich has gained 19 points since PPP's last poll of the race in early October.  Also showing momentum are Paul whose support is up 8% and Bachmann whose support is up 5%.  Romney has dropped 6 points since then with the other candidates mostly standing in place.

Gingrich's rise to the top is being fueled by strong support from seniors and the Tea Party.  With voters over 65 he's at 37% leading Romney's 18% and Paul's 11% by 19 and 26 points respectively. With Tea Party voters Gingrich is at 35% with Bachmann actually coming in at second with 23%, Paul in third at 14%, and Romney all the way back at just 4%.

Paul's benefiting from the lack of action on the Democratic side this year. 20% of likely caucus goers are either Democrats or independents and with them he's leading the way with 28% t0 18% for Gingrich and 13% for Romney and Bachmann. He's also very strong with younger voters, getting 23% with those under 45 to 21% for Gingrich, 16% for Bachmann, and 15% for Romney.

When PPP polled Iowa for the first time this year in January 57% of voters had a favorable opinion of Romney to 26% with an unfavorable one.  Now he's at only 49/45, representing a 27 point decline in his net favorability over the course of the year. Perhaps most troubling for Romney, only 48% of those who voted for him in 2008 say they're planning to do so again this year.

Senate Bill 5 headed for resounding defeat Tuesday

Raleigh, N.C. – Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday.  PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

SB 5 headed for big defeat

Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio Tuesday.  PPP's final poll on Issue 2 finds 59% of voters plan to reject Senate Bill 5, with only 36% voting for approval.

What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it's exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March. Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.

Democrats are almost unanimous in their opposition to SB 5, supporting repeal by an 86-10 margin. Meanwhile there's division in the Republican ranks- 30% are planning to vote down their Governor's signature proposal while only 66% are supportive of it. Independents split against it by a 54/39 spread as well.

If this margin holds on Tuesday night it will be a humiliating defeat for John Kasich. Kasich continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 33% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove. The only person we've found with worse numbers this year is Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie. If Ohio voters could do it over again they'd reelect Ted Strickland by a 55-37 margin over Kasich, and although they don't have an opportunity for a redo on the Gubernatorial election the likely results of the Senate Bill 5 referendum on Tuesday can be seen as a proxy for it.

The news isn't all bad for Ohio Republicans though. Issue 3, where a yes vote is being framed as a rejection of Barack Obama's health care plan, is leading for passage by a 49-35 margin. That represents a significant tightening from 3 weeks ago when PPP found the measure ahead by a 55-24 margin, but it might be difficult for the 'no' side to make up another 14 points in the final 36 hours before the polls open.

Kasich’s anti-labor bill headed for resounding defeat this fall

Raleigh, N.C. – There has been basically no change in how Ohioans feel about their governor since PPP last polled the state in August.  John Kasich is still the least popular governor in the country, with only 37% approving and 54% disapproving of his job performance.  That is bad news heading into this fall’s election, as one of his signature accomplishments, Senate Bill 5, is on the ballot, and would be rejected handily if voters were at the polls today.  It could also portend bad results for next year’s election.  President Obama is pretty unpopular in Ohio, but Kasich even more so, and his crusading against labor could galvanize Obama’s troops and give him an antagonist with independents.

Ohio SB 5 Headed For Rejection

Labor is poised for a big victory in Ohio next month- PPP's newest poll of the state finds that voters intend to reject Senate Bill 5 by a 56-36 margin. Although that margin is consistent with what we found in the state earlier this year, when we polled Ohio in August the support for repealing SB 5 had tightened to 50-39.  These numbers suggest that momentum is back on the side of the groups trying to kill the bill.

The preferences of Republicans and independents on Senate Bill 5 are mostly unchanged from two months ago.  Independents are evenly divided on the issue, 46/46. And Republicans want to uphold it 61/30. But Democrats have unified in their support for repealing SB 5.  In August they were only planning to overturn it by a 69/21 margin. Now that figure is 80/13. That increase in Democratic support for repeal may be indicative of voters becoming increasingly aware what the implications of a 'yes' and 'no' vote are on this somewhat complicated referendum.

The rejection of Senate Bill 5 would be a huge defeat for John Kasich, and Kasich continues to be the most unpopular Governor PPP has polled on anywhere in the country in 2011. Just 37% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. He has an unusually high number of Republicans disenchanted with him- 23%- and he attracts little crossover support from Democrats to make up for that, with only 10% of them approving of him. Independents split against him by a 49/43 margin as well.