Public Policy Polling

Hermentum continues: Cain leads Ohio and Hawaii primaries

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican presidential race is very much nationalized right now, with very few regional or state-by-state differences.  Rick Perry is really cratering everywhere, and Herman Cain has led comfortably in every PPP primary poll in the last two weeks, first in rural, right-leaning states like North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nebraska, then Iowa and nationally, and now joined by states as distant and different as Ohio and Hawaii.  Mitt Romney’s one true stronghold remains New England.  Newt Gingrich is also on the rise, though not to the extent that Cain is.

More Good Numbers for Cain

Herman Cain's poll momentum is continuing for at least another week.  PPP surveys conducted over the weekend in Ohio and Hawaii find him with a large lead in both states.  That now makes 7 consecutive polls over the last 3 weeks- a national one and state polls in Ohio, Hawaii, Iowa, North Carolina, Nebraska, and West Virginia- that have found Cain leading the way.

In Ohio Cain's at 34% to 19% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Newt Gingrich, 7% for Ron Paul, 6% for Michele Bachmann, 5% for Rick Perry, 1% each for Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum, and 0% for Gary Johnson.


In Hawaii Cain's at 36% to 24% for Romney, 8% for Gingrich and Perry, 6% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 1% each for Huntsman, Johnson, and Santorum.

2012 Hawaii Senate

A couple days ago Hawaii Governor Linda Lingle said she might be interested in running for the Senate in 2012. A few years ago, coming off getting 63% in her reelection campaign for Governor, that might have been a very scary thought for Democrats. But the poll we did for Daily Kos in the state last weekend found that Lingle is not nearly as popular as she used to be.

Lingle now meets with approval from only 46% of voters in the state with 45% disapproving. She's still very popular with Republicans (an 80/17 approval rating) and independents as well (a 56/32 spread). But for a Republican to win in Hawaii requires a significant amount of crossover support from Democrats and that Lingle no longer seems to have- only 22% like the job she's doing now to 68% who disapprove.

Daniel Akaka, who would be Lingle's opponent in 2012 unless he chooses to retire, has better approval numbers with 49% of voters approving of him and 35% disapproving. He can't match Lingle's popularity with independents and isn't any more popular with Republicans than Lingle is with Democrats. But he retains a high degree of popularity within his own party and since that accounts for most of the voters in the state he has superior approval numbers to her.

And of course these approval numbers are with voters in a 2010 electorate that's much more conservative than what the state is likely to see in 2012 with native son Barack Obama back at the top of the Democratic ticket. Lingle would be under water approval wise with the voters in a Presidential year electorate. So even if Akaka retires I don't think Democrats have a lot to worry about here.

The upcoming special elections

I think there's a pretty good chance Republicans are going to win both of the special Congressional elections this month. And I think it's a virtual certainty Democrats will have a brutal time at the polls this fall. But as much as the media is going to try to make the Pennsylvania and Hawaii House races into some sort of huge harbinger for November, I don't think there's much of a relationship between what happens in these races and what will happen nationally later this year.

Almost every House race in the country this fall will feature a single Democrat running against a single Republicans in a district that saw movement in a Democratic direction between George W. Bush's reelection in 2004 and Barack Obama's election in 2008. But neither of these districts fits that bill.

Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District was the only one in the country that flipped from voting for John Kerry in 2004 to John McCain in 2008. It was an outlier trending in a Republican direction even as the rest of the country was going strongly Democratic and it will be more of a surprise if it doesn't go Republican than if it does.

In Hawaii of course all of the polling shows the two Democrats combining for far more of the vote than the single Republican candidate, but with both of them in it until the end it does seem likely that the split within the party will give the GOP the seat- for six months anyway until they lose it under normal election circumstances this fall.

These two races just aren't very reflective of the overall battlefield in 2010 and it would be a mistake to read too much into their results.

The Hawaii Special

If Republican Charles Djou wins the special election in Hawaii next month it will be a clear sign that...the state has a quirky system for filling House vacancies.

A DCCC poll leaked out last week on the race that showed Democratic candidates getting 59% of the vote and the Republican getting 32%. Neil Abercrombie got reelected with 71% of the vote in 2008 so the share of the vote the Democrats are combining for really doesn't seem like an unusually large drop given the open seat situation and the fact that native Barack Obama won't be on the top of the ballot for this one.

Djou certainly might win. And then he will lose in November when he has to run against a Democrat one on one. I'm sure it's going to be made out as some sort of Democratic apocalypse if Republicans manage to win this special election and while that was appropriate in Massachusetts I don't think it is here. The broader implications of this race are pretty limited, and restraint is in order for interpreting the results.

Who doesn't think Hawaii is a state?

The 8% of North Carolinians who don't think Hawaii is a state or don't know whether it is seems to be getting the most attention in our poll this week. Here's how they break down demographically:

-54% are Republicans, 38% are Democrats, and 9% are independents

-55% are conservatives, 34% are moderates, and 11% are liberals

-39% live in rural areas, 35% in small towns, 15% are suburbanites, and 11% live in urban areas

-41% are over 65, 29% between 46 and 65, 19% between 30 and 45, and 11% under 30. (Perhaps the older folks remember when Hawaii still wasn't a state and just missed the memo!)

-Ironically 15% of them list education as their top issue, compared to just 9% of voters overall- maybe that's an indication of some self awareness right there!

Because this question generated so much interest we're also going to put it on our Colorado and national polls due out next week.

Wednesday's Odds and Ends

-Yesterday's Rasmussen poll showing Hillary Clinton beating Sarah Palin 51-39 will probably just add fuel to the fire for the various folks who have contacted us asking that we start polling on Clinton as a 2012 candidate...we're not going to do it.

-I wrote a blog post Monday about how despite Richard Burr's poll numbers, he was starting to look better for reelection as things move in a Republican direction nationally. The NRSC took this and declared that 'a new poll showed strong numbers for Richard Burr.' Fail. Learn the difference between a blog post and a poll guys.

-Usually we put our polls for the next week into the field Friday or Saturday but I am headed to LA tomorrow to see my Braves play the Dodgers for the weekend so we started it up early. Here are some initial highlights:

*Just as in Virginia there are plenty of birthers in North Carolina, and a little more than 10% of voters don't consider Hawaii to be part of the US.

*The downward spiral of Bev Perdue's approval seems to be over...of course when you're down to 25% there aren't a lot of places to go but up. One problem for her? Fewer than a third of voters in the state consider her to be a decisive leader.

*Elaine Marshall's polling roughly five points better against Richard Burr than Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis- that's an indication her greater initial name recognition is not a huge difference maker with the general public- of course it's probably more relevant at this point whether it's a huge difference maker with Democratic donors.

That poll will be in the field the rest of the week and we'll start rolling out numbers from it on Tuesday.

And you would have known everything I just posted already if you were following us on twitter.