Public Policy Polling

NRA, Congressional Republicans seeing big popularity drop

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.

Images of NRA, Congressional Republicans on the decline

PPP's newest national poll finds that the NRA's image has declined over the last three weeks following Wayne LaPierre's controversial press conference the week before Christmas.

The NRA now has a negative favorability rating, with 42% of voters seeing it positively while 45% have an unfavorable view. That represents a 10 point net decline in the NRA's favorability from the week before the press conference when a national poll we did found it at 48/41. Its image has taken a hit with both Democrats (from 29/59 to 22/67) and Republicans (71/19 to 66/18).

The NRA's focus on putting more guns in schools is likely what's driving the decline in the organization's image. Only 41% of voters support the organization's proposal to put armed police officers in schools across the country, with 50% opposed. Democrats (35/57) and independents (38/51) both oppose the push and even among Republicans only a narrow majority (52/39) supports it.

On the broader issue of giving teachers guns, only 27% of voters are supportive with 64% opposed. There's bipartisan opposition to that concept with Republicans (35/50), independents (31/59), and Democrats (19/77) all standing against it. Gun owners (37/52) oppose it as well.

The holidays and the fiscal cliff took a lot of the spotlight off gun control measures, but in general 53% of Americans say they support stricter gun laws with 40% opposed.

Congress emerged from the fiscal cliff debate with a 7% approval rating, with 81% of voters disapproving of it. But the two parties aren't going in for equal blame. While the Democrats in Congress aren't popular (-12 at 38/50) their approval rating is a net 48 points better than their Republican counterparts (-60 at 15/75).The Republicans in Congress have only a 25/61 approval rating even with the GOP base, suggesting the potential for 2014 to bring a lot of primary challenges.

The considerably higher esteem the Democrats in Congress have compared to the Republicans is extending to our early generic ballot polling for 2014- 47% of voters say they'd support the Democratic candidate for the House from their district if there was an election today to 41% who say they would vote for the GOP nominee.

Obama and Heller lead in Nevada

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state falling to 4 points at 51-47. He had led by a 52-43 margin in the middle of last month. That five point decline for Obama is consistent with what we've been seeing in most of our national and state level polling since last week's debate.

Romney's seen a big improvement in his favorability rating. The last time we polled on that in August he was at 46/49 in Nevada and now he's improved a net 7 points to 50/46. The good news for Obama is that his own approval, at 49/48, is slightly better than it was in August as well when he was at 48/49. Romney's climb is more about his own image improving than a decline for Obama.

Obama, Heller lead in Nevada

PPP's newest Nevada poll finds Barack Obama's lead in the state falling to 4 points at 51-47. He had led by a 52-43 margin in the middle of last month. That five point decline for Obama is consistent with what we've been seeing in most of our national and state level polling since last week's debate.

Romney's seen a big improvement in his favorability rating. The last time we polled on that in August he was at 46/49 in Nevada and now he's improved a net 7 points to 50/46. The good news for Obama is that his own approval, at 49/48, is slightly better than it was in August as well when he was at 48/49. Romney's climb is more about his own image improving than a decline for Obama.

Romney's big gain over the last month has been with white voters, who he's going from leading 52-45 with to 55-42. He's made gains across the party spectrum, notably increasing his crossover support with Democrats from 10% to 16% and cutting Obama's lead with independents from 15 points down to 7 points.

The main groups fueling Obama's continued lead are Hispanics, who give him a 67-32 advantage, and young voters who favor him 67-33.

When Gary Johnson's included he gets 3% and actually takes mostly from Obama, pulling his lead over Romney down to 48/47. That could be something worth keeping an eye on.

In the Senate race Dean Heller holds a small lead over Shelley Berkley with 47% to her 44%. Independent American Party candidate David Lory VanderBeek gets 4%. Nevadans give Heller narrowly positive approval numbers, with 44% of voters happy with the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. Berkley's suffering from high negatives with just 40% of voters rating her favorably to 51% who have an unfavorable opinion. Heller's winning independents 47-37 and taking 85% of the Republican vote to Berkley's 76% of Democrats.

Heller hanging on over Berkley

Raleigh, N.C. – Dean Heller has retained a razor-thin lead over his Democratic challenger Shelley Berkley in his fight for a full term in the Senate.  The appointed senator has 47% to Berkley’s 45% with likely voters in this fall’s election, not much different than the 44-43 edge he had in PPP’s last poll of the state in early June.

Both candidates have consolidated support from their respective parties and cut down on attrition to the opposite party’s candidate.  Berkley has an 81-11 advantage with Democrats, up from 73-18, while Heller has an 86-11 lock on the GOP (71-16).  Heller has also upped his lead with independents from 45-38 to 50-37.

Nevada Senate race still a toss up

-PPP's newest Nevada Senate poll continues to find a very close race: Dean Heller leads with 47% to 45% for Shelley Berkley. A small lead for Heller is consistent with what PPP's found over the last year in this contest- our three previous  polls found him with a 1 point lead, a 3 point lead, and a tie.

Heller's lead comes largely thanks to a 50-37 advantage with independent voters. He's also benefiting from a more unified party base, as 86% of Republicans are committed to voting for him compared to 81% of Democrats who are with Berkley.

Nevadans are evenly split in their feelings about Heller's job performance with 42% both approving and disapproving of him. Berkley's favorability is slightly under water with 42% rating her positively and 45% holding a negative opinion of her. That's down a net 4 points from June, but on the whole her recent publicity doesn't seem to be hurting her that badly.

More voters- 43%- consider her to be ethical than the 39% who think she's unethical. Overall 42% of voters think Heller's the more ethical candidate in the race to 37% for Berkley, a much more narrow gap than you might expect given what's been in the news lately. Berkley may be benefiting from voters setting the bar pretty low when it comes to politicians and ethics- just 21% of voters think the average one is ethical to 63% who do not.

This still looks like a very close race with just a modest advantage to Heller.

Other notes from Nevada:

Nevada wants baseball more than football team

Raleigh, N.C. – Football has long since taken over baseball as America’s pastime, at least in terms of TV ratings.  But Nevadans without a major pro sports team seem more eager to get an MLB franchise than an NFL one.  Of the four major sports leagues, 27% want a hardball club, 23% a gridiron team, 13% an NBA team, and only 8% an NHL team.  A 28% plurality are not sure.  With Republicans, the NFL tops MLB, 27-24, but with Democrats, baseball leads, 30-19, and with independents, 29-25.  At respective 18% and 10%, basketball and hockey both get their highest support from Democrats.

Nevada Miscellany

-Brian Sandoval continues to have decent, if not spectacular, approval numbers. 45% of voters in the state approve of him to 38% who disapprove. He's in solid standing with Republicans and continues to have an unusual amount of crossover support with 26% of Democrats approving of him. It's not clear that the Republican nominee next year putting him on the ticket would provide much of a boost in Nevada though- only 20% of voters in the state say that would make them more likely to vote GOP to 31% who would consider it a negative and 49% who say it wouldn't make a difference either way. Vice Presidential picks are rarely game changers, even in the selectee's home state.

-Harry Reid's approval numbers are about where they are every time time we poll the state- 42% of voters think he's doing a good job to 53% who disapprove of him. His numbers are highlighted by an awful 31/65 sprad with independents. I guess all you can say to that is God Bless Sharron Angle. The next highest disapproval rating we've measured this year for any Senator reelected in 2010 is Barbara Boxer's 47%.

Amodei appears to be headed for comfortable victory in NV-2

Raleigh, N.C. – Republican Mark Amodei appears to be headed for an easy victory in Tuesday's special election to replace Dean Heller as the Representative from Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. He's polling at 50% to 37% for Democrat Kate Marshall with 2 third party candidates combining for 8% and 5% of voters still undecided.

When PPP polled this race three weeks ago it was considerably more competitive with Amodei ahead only 43-42. Marshall had 2 things going for her then that are no longer the case. The first was that Democrats were more enthused about her, giving her 86% of their votes, than Republicans were about Amodei who had only 77% of the GOP vote locked down. That has now flipped with 83% of Republicans planning to vote for Amodei while only 74% of Democrats say they'll vote for Marshall.

NV supports prostitution, gay marriage, but not online poker

Raleigh, N.C. – More Nevadans are in favor of legalizing prostitution across the state than allowing online poker gambling.  56%, including 65% of independents, 56% of Democrats, and even 51% of Republicans, believe prostitution should be legal, and 32% think it should not.  Meanwhile, only 40% think online poker should be legal, while 42% believe it should be illegal.  Nevadans may see it as a threat to casino tourism.

Voters are also just narrowly in support of same-sex marriage, 45% wanting it to be legal and 44% still illegal.  Two-thirds of Democrats and a 45% plurality of independents support it, but 73% of Republicans are against it.  77% of voters, however, including 83% of independents and 61% of Republicans, support at least civil unions, which feature the legal rights associated with marriage and Nevada’s domestic partnerships.