Public Policy Polling

Toss-up on Mississippi ‘personhood’ amendment

Raleigh, N.C. – It looks like the race to watch in Mississippi on Tuesday night will be the state's proposed 'Personhood Amendment,' which would make the state's laws regarding abortion and birth control the strictest of any state in the country.  Right now it looks like it could go either way, with 45% of voters supporting the amendment and 44% opposed.

Men (48-42), whites (54-37), and Republicans (65-28) support the proposal.  But women (42-46), African Americans (26-59), Democrats (23-61), and independents (35-51) oppose it.  The good news for those opposed to the amendment is that 11% of voters are undecided and their demographics are 58% women, 54% Democratic, and 42% black- those still on the fence disproportionately belong to voter groups that oppose the amendment. That suggests when those folks make up their minds the proposal could be narrowly defeated.

Down to the wire on Personhood Amendment

It looks like the race to watch in Mississippi on Tuesday night will be the state's proposed 'Personhood Amendment,' which would make the state's laws regarding abortion and birth control the strictest of any state in the country.  Right now it looks like it could go either way, with 45% of voters supporting the amendment and 44% opposed.

Men (48-42), whites (54-37), and Republicans (65-28) support the proposal.  But women (42-46), African Americans (26-59), Democrats (23-61), and independents (35-51) oppose it.  The good news for those opposed to the amendment is that 11% of voters are undecided and their demographics are 58% women, 54% Democratic, and 42% black- those still on the fence disproportionately belong to voter groups that oppose the amendment. That suggests when those folks make up their minds the proposal could be narrowly defeated.

There should be less suspense in the Gubernatorial race. Republican Phil Bryant leads his Democratic opponent Johnny DuPree by 14 points, 54-40. The race is incredibly polarized along racial lines with Bryant up 74-20 with whites, while DuPree has an 80-11 advantage with African Americans. It's an unusual contest for this highly negative political climate in that voters have a positive opinion of both candidates: Bryant's favorability is 54/25 and DuPree's is 46/27. We don't see that very often.

Huckabee strong in IA if he runs, Romney favored otherwise

Raleigh, N.C. – When PPP polled New Hampshire Republicans a few weeks ago, Donald Trump was the only candidate who came close to that primary’s frontrunner, Mitt Romney, lagging only 27-21.  But Trump is much less of a threat to Iowa’s 2008 winner and current leader, Mike Huckabee, who earns 27% of usual caucusgoers’ support, over Romney’s 16% and Trump’s 14%, with everyone else in single digits.  Without Trump in the picture, Huckabee leads Romney, 30-18, the same split as when PPP last polled the race in early January. Palin and Newt Gingrich jump up to 12% apiece.

Absent Trump Tim Pawlenty has barely increased his support from 4% to 7% since then, while Sarah Palin has dropped from 15% to 12%, possibly coinciding not only with her lower profile since the Tucson shootings but also since the emergence of Trump and Michele Bachmann as serious contenders.

The GOP’s front-runner is…Donald Trump?

Raleigh, N.C. – Every month, PPP polls Republican primary voters nationwide about their preferences for the GOP presidential nomination.  Almost every month, the top four candidates have been in a statistical tie, with various candidates jockeying back and forth for slim leads.  But for the first time in three months, when Mike Huckabee had a ten-point lead over Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, PPP has found a candidate who puts serious distance between himself and the rest of the field: Donald Trump.

Trump leads with 26% over Huckabee’s 17%, Romney’s 15%, Newt Gingrich’s 11%, Palin’s 8%, Ron Paul’s 5%, and Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann’s 4%.

Georgia GOP favors Gingrich, Huckabee for pres. nomination

Raleigh, N.C. – Little-known Herman Cain gets more traction with his home-state Repbulicans than one might expect for someone who is, at least for now, an afterthought among nationally known figures in the race to take on Barack Obama next year.  16% of usual GOP primary voters in Georgia prefer the Godfather’s Pizza magnate and radio host for the presidential nomination, putting him in third place behind Mike Huckabee’s 23% and another Georgian, Newt Gingrich’s 22%.  Way behind are Sarah Palin (10%), Mitt Romney (8%), Michele Bachmann (4%), and Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul (3% apiece).  11% are undecided or prefer someone unnamed.

MS GOP: Bryant for Gov., Barbour or Huckabee for Pres.

Raleigh, N.C. – Mississippi Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant is certainly the favorite to get his party’s nomination to succeed Haley Barbour at the helm of the state.  As last week’s PPP release showed, Bryant would also be a shoo-in come November.  Bryant has almost two-thirds (63%) of Republican primary voters’ support, with only one other candidate, businessman Dave Dennis, in double digits (14%).  Retired General Hudson Holliday gets a mere 2%, with perennial candidate James Broadwater at only 1% and businessman Ron Williams with almost no support.  20% are undecided, but unless a seismic shift occurs, that will not impact Bryant’s chances in the primary only four months away.

Barbour, Bryant lead in Mississippi

Mississippi Republicans want Haley Barbour to be their nominee for President next year, and he's doing far better in his home state than most of the other Republicans looking at the race are doing in theirs. 37% say Barbour is their first choice, followed by 19% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin, 6% for Mitt Romney, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Ron Paul.

The only Republican we've found doing better in their home state so far is Romney, who 47% of Massachusetts GOP voters want as their nominee. Also matching Barbour's 37% was John Thune in South Dakota before he decided not to run. After that it's Paul Ryan at 30% in Wisconsin, Tim Pawlenty at 24% in Minnesota, Jim DeMint at 24% in South Carolina, Sarah Palin at 15% in Alaska, Gary Johnson at 13% in New Mexico, Rick Santorum at 11% in Pennsylvania, and Rick Perry at 9% in Texas. So on the curve Mississippi Republicans, who give Barbour an 85% approval rating, are pretty excited about their home state candidate.

Should Barbour end up not running or not making it all the way to the Mississippi primary Huckabee is the clear favorite in the state. In a Barbour less field he gets 35% to 20% for Palin, 18% for Gingrich, 8% for Romney, 5% for Bachmann, 4% for Paul, and 3% for Pawlenty.

We asked voters on this poll whether they think interracial marriage should be legal or illegal- 46% of Mississippi Republicans said it should be illegal to just 40% who think it should be legal. For the most part there aren't any huge divides in how voters view the candidates or who they support for the nomination based on their attitudes about interracial marriage but there are a few exceptions.

Palin's net favorability with folks who think interracial marriage should be illegal (+55 at 74/19) is 17 points higher than it is with folks who think interracial marriage should be legal (+38 at 64/26.) Meanwhile Romney's favorability numbers see the opposite trend. He's at +23 (53/30) with voters who think interracial marriage should be legal but 19 points worse at +4 (44/40) with those who think it should be illegal. Tells you something about the kinds of folks who like each of those candidates.

Lest there was any doubt Phil Bryant is the overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee for Governor. 63% of voters say they'd vote for him if the primary was today to 14% for Dave Dennis, 2% for Hudson Holliday, 1% for James Broadwater, and 0% for Ron Williams. Perhaps Broadwater needs Borat to come back to the state and go door to door telling voters about his, um, attributes.

72% of Republicans think that Roger Wicker is ideologically 'about right' to only 9% who think he's too liberal. Nevertheless in a hypothetical primary contest between him and a generic 'more conservative' alternative he leads by only a 40-39 margin. It just goes to show once again that no matter how conservative you are, for the Republican base it's almost impossible to be conservative enough. Still it's hard to imagine taking out Wicker becoming much of a Tea Party priority.

Full results here

Jeb would easily win FL pres. primary, unclear race otherwise

Raleigh, N.C. – Florida is trying to move its primary up and increase its influence in the GOP presidential primary process, but right now, the state’s Republican voters are not too decisive about which candidate they favor—unless their former governor Jeb Bush changes his mind.  In PPP’s usual eight-candidate field, 18% favor each Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich, with Sarah Palin not far behind, at 15%, Michele Bachmann at 7%, Ron Paul and Tim Pawlenty at 6% apiece, and Haley Barbour at 3%.

In the event various candidates do not jump into the fray, the picture changes little.  Without Huckabee, Gingrich jumps to 24%, Romney to 23%, Palin to 14%, and Paul to 9%.  Everyone else runs in place.  Without Palin, Huckabee leads at 24%, with Gingrich and Romney at 22% each, and Bachmann at 9%.  With neither Palin nor Huckabee, Gingrich tops Romney, 30-28, with Bachmann at 11%, Pawlenty at 10%, and Paul at 9%.

Trump gives Romney run for his money in NH

Raleigh, N.C. – Few in the media and pundit class are taking Donald Trump seriously as a presidential contender, but evidently New Hampshire Republicans are.  Neighboring Massachusetts’ Mitt Romney leads in every variation of the potential GOP field, but his grip on the state is slimmest with Trump in the mix.

Overall, Romney is about where he was when he finished second to John McCain in 2008, with 32% of the vote then and 31% now.  But that is a far cry from the 40% he earned when PPP last polled the race just before last November’s election.  Behind him are Mike Huckabee (15%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Sarah Palin and Ron Paul (10%), Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann (4%), and Haley Barbour (2%), with 12% undecided.

Romney leads in NH, Trump makes things interesting

Mitt Romney's still the clear early front runner to take the Republican primary in New Hampshire next year but for the first time in our polling of the race PPP finds someone within single digits of him...Donald Trump.

If Trump actually run 21% of New Hampshire GOP voters say they'd vote for him, compared to 27% for Romney. The key to Trump's relatively strong showing? He does well with birthers and Tea Partiers, two groups he has seemed to actively court with his public comments of late. 42% of primary voters firmly say they do not believe Barack Obama was born in the United States to 35% who believe that he was and 23% who aren't sure. Trump leads Romney 22-21 with the birther crowd, but Romney holds the overall lead because he's up by a much wider margin with the folks who dismiss the birther theory.

Trump also leads Romney 23-21 with the Republican primary voters who consider themselves to be Tea Party members but that's only 30% of the electorate and Romney's up by a good margin with the folks who don't identify with that movement.

If you take Trump out of the picture Romney maintains the customary wide lead he has shown in most polling of the state. On the standard Republican primary question we ask in every state Romney gets 31% to 15% for Mike Huckabee, 13% for Newt Gingrich, 10% for Sarah Palin and Ron Paul, 4% for Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Haley Barbour.

We also asked about three other permutations of the race in which 1) Palin didn't run, 2) Huckabee didn't run, and 3) neither Huckabee nor Palin ran to get some idea of whether their supporters would consolidate around a single candidate and make that person a threat to Romney. That did not prove to be the case though. With Huckabee out of the picture Romney's lead just widens with him at 37% to 14% for Gingrich and Palin and 13% for Paul. It's a similar story with Palin out of the mix- Romney's support climbs to 35% with Huckabee at 14% and Paul and Gingrich at 13%. And even with both Huckabee and Palin out Romney leads with 40% to 18% for Paul and 17% for Gingrich.

There is one huge warning sign for Romney in this poll despite the leads he posts in every permutation though: 61% of primary voters say they would not be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that people have health insurance. In 5 of the 6 horse race questions we asked Romney still leads with those voters, suggesting that most Republicans who follow politics and the 2012 race only casually are not really aware of 'Romneycare.' It's safe to say they'll be well aware of it 9 months from now, and it's going to be interesting to see if Romney can sustain his support once he's been endlessly bashed over the head with it.

Your winners in this poll:

1) Romney- signs of vulnerability down the road notwithstanding you can't argue with leading every possible match up and by double digits in most cases.

2) Trump- it has to drive the people who've been running or at least laying the groundwork for a run for months nuts that he can just spout off some birther rhetoric and earn the best New Hampshire poll support anyone other than Romney's shown to date.

3) Paul- his favorability numbers are better than Gingrich, Huckabee, and Palin's and he has a double digit level of support in almost every match up we looked at, including a second place finish over Gingrich when you take Huckabee and Palin out of the mix.

Your losers in this poll:

1) Huckabee- these numbers give little indication that he's been able to build much on his weak 11% showing in the state in 2008, or that he would be particularly competitive with Romney even if Palin sat it out. His favorability is under 50% and not even that far above water at 48/36.

2) Palin- the fact that the best she can muster is a tie with Paul doesn't bode well for her prospects in the state if she ends up making a bad. Even if you take Huckabee out of the mix she still runs 23 points behind Romney, and her favorability of 51% is nothing to write home about.

3) Gingrich- his only real shot would seem to be if Palin and Huckabee don't run and their supporters unify around him against Romney. That's not happening at this point though- he only gains 4 points from 13% to 17% with them out of the mix while Romney actually sees a 9 point bump from 31% to 40%. And his favorability is weak as well at 45/36.

Bottom line in New Hampshire- Romney remains your favorite but there are some cracks there and the Donald could make things very, very interesting.

Full results here