Public Policy Polling

Schauer leads Snyder by 4 points

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer leads Snyder by 4

PPP's first poll of the Michigan Gubernatorial race since Mark Schauer's official entry finds the Democrat leading incumbent Rick Snyder 42/38. PPP's polling of this match up over the last six months has been very consistent- in March Schauer also led Snyder by 4 points and in December he had a 5 point advantage.

Schauer's initial lead has a lot more to do with Snyder than it does with himself. Even after his official candidacy announcement, he has just 38% statewide name recognition. But Snyder continues to be one of the most unpopular Governors in the country with only 40% of voters approving of him to 52% who disapprove. He's at 40/51 with independents and Democrats (78% disapproval) dislike him a good deal more than Republicans (68% approval) like him.

Schauer's low name recognition at this point means that things could actually get worse for Snyder. The undecideds for Governor voted for Barack Obama by a 16 point margin, and only 22% approve of Snyder to 64% who disapprove. Those are folks likely to move into the Schauer camp once he becomes better known.

Snyder's role in the passage of right to work legislation continues to be a big problem for him. Just 40% of voters support that law to 50% who oppose it, numbers that have not seen any improvement since the initial furor after it passed in December. Snyder continues to have issues with his brand, as only 34% of voters now consider him to be 'one tough nerd' to 45% who don't.

Dayton leads potential opponents for reelection

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s newest Minnesota poll finds Governor Mark Dayton with a 49% approval rating to 47% disapproval and 4% not sure. Potential Republican challenger Kurt Daudt has a 6% approval rating to 15% disapproval. Tom Emmer elicits positive ratings from 20% of voters and negative ones from 37%. David Hann has a 4% favorable rating and 16% unfavorable rating. Scott Honour has a 3% favorability rating to 11% unfavorable. Jeff Johnson has a positive rating of 6% and negative rating of 13%. Julie Rosen has ratings of 9% favorable and 13% unfavorable. Dave Thompson’s favorability rating is 8% and a 13% unfavorable rating. 10% like Kurt Zellers, and 25% have a negative opinion of him.

Governor Dayton would beat Kurt Daudt 51% to 39%.  Dayton leads Tom Emmer 52% to 39%. He has a 51% to 36% advantage over David Hann. Dayton leads Scott Honour 52%-34%. He also has Jeff Johnson by 52%-34%. Voters favor Dayton over Julie Rosen 51%-34%. Dayton leads Dave Thompson 51%-35%. He leads Kurt Zellers 53%-35%.

Dayton numbers drop, but still favored over Republicans

Mark Dayton's poll numbers have taken a slide over the last four months, but he still looks like a pretty big favorite for reelection against the folks considering a run against him.

In January Dayton's approval was a +14 spread at 53/39. It's dropped a net 12 points since then and now 49% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 47% who disapprove. He hasn't lost much support with Democrats but independents have turned against him to some extent, going from 49/40 approval to 39/54. Republicans have also further hardened against him, going from 14/80 to 8/90.

Nevertheless Dayton still has a double digit lead against every Republican we tested against him. Kurt Daudt trails by 12 points at 51/39, Tom Emmer is down 13 at 52/39, David Hann has a 15 point deficit at 51/36, Dave Thompson is 16 back at 51/35, Julie Rosen trails by 17 at 51/34, and Scott Honour, Jeff Johnson, and Kurt Zellers each trail by 18 at 52/34, 52/34, and 53/35 respectively.

There are a couple different ways to process those numbers. We tested Johnson, Rosen, and Zellers against Dayton in January and he was doing an average of 6 points better against that trio then than he is now. At the same time Dayton defeated Emmer by less than a point in 2010 but leads him by 13 now. The best way to sum up is that Dayton is a good deal stronger than he was when first elected, but somewhat weaker than he was at the start of the year.

Other notes from Minnesota:

Dems favored for MA-Gov.—unless Brown runs

Raleigh, N.C. – It’s more than a year and a half out from the 2014 Massachusetts gubernatorial election, and the indecision of voters in PPP’s latest look at the contest reflects that.  At least 17% and as much as 48% of voters are undecided in 21 match-ups PPP tested in this very unsettled race.

But the general picture is no surprise in this deep blue state: Democrats have a slight edge unless Scott Brown is the Republican nominee.  53% see Brown favorably and 35% unfavorably, and he earns 43-49% of the vote, with leads of four to 18 points against the seven Democrats PPP tested.  Yet those Democrats lead the other two Republicans tested—2010 gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker and failed 2012 congressional and 2010 Lt. Gov. candidate Richard Tisei—in almost all the other head-to-heads.

Wide open in Massachusetts

PPP's first comprehensive look at next year's race for Governor in Massachusetts finds that voters are largely unfamiliar with the potential candidates, making it pretty wide open.

The one exception to that rule is if Scott Brown decides to make a race of it. Despite working as a Fox News commentator and openly flirting with running for office in another state, he remains quite popular with 53% of Massachusetts voters seeing him favorably to 35% with a negative opinion. Brown leads all the potential Democratic candidates we tested by anywhere from 4 to 18 points. William Galvin comes closest at 43-39, followed by Mike Capuano at 45-38, Steve Grossman at 46-34, Joe Avellone, Don Berwick, and Mo Cowan who each trail by 17 at 46/29, 47/30, and 48/31 respectively, and Carmen Ortiz who trails 49/31.

One reason the Democrats all trail Brown by so much is that they're largely unknown. Galvin has the highest name recognition but even he is known only to 52% of voters in the state. He's followed in familiarity by Capuano at 46%, Grossman and Ortiz at 34%, Cowan at 28%, Avellone at 19%, and Berwick at 17%. Asked who out of that crew they'd like as their candidate for Governor next year, 44% of Democrats say they'd prefer someone else or that they're not sure. Capuano leads the way among those who have an opinion with 17% to 13% for Galvin, 6% for Grossman, 5% for Avellone and Ortiz, and 4% for Berwick and Cowan.

Hassan riding high in New Hampshire, safe for 2014 re-election

Raleigh, N.C. – Maggie Hassan’s high job approval rating and significant double-digit leads over five possible Republican challengers indicate that the incumbent Democratic governor will start out ahead for  re-election in 2014 if she decides to run, according to PPP’s first New Hampshire poll since the 2012 election.

Hassan has a +19 job approval rating with 50% of voters approving and 31% disapproving of her performance. Democrats (80/8) and independents (47/29) approve of Hassan, who also nabs 18% support from Republicans. She has 14 to 20 point leads over five possible GOP opponents. She leads Jeb Bradley 52/38, Chris Sununu 53/37, Ted Gastas 51/35, Frank Guinta 54/36 and Kevin Smith 52/32. None of these potential candidates have a positive favorability rating with New Hampshire voters.

Ayotte faces backlash over gun vote

Gun show background checks are pretty universally popular in New Hampshire...and Kelly Ayotte is facing some serious backlash from voters in the state for voting against them last week.

Ayotte now has a negative approval rating with 44% of voters giving her good marks and 46% disapproving. That's down a net 15 points from the last time we polled on her, in October, when she had a 48% approval with 35% disapproving. 75% of New Hampshire voters- including 95% of Democrats, 74% of independents, and 56% of Republicans- say they support background checks. And 50% of voters in the state say Ayotte's 'no' vote will make them less likely to support her in a future election, compared to just 23% who consider it to be a positive.

Ayotte won her seat in 2010 by 23 points. But in a very early hypothetical match up between her and new Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, she trails by a 46/44 margin. This issue is really giving her some trouble.

Speaking of Hassan, she's off to a good start in her first term as Governor. 50% of voters approve of her to only 31% who disapprove, including a 47/29 spread with independents. She holds leads ranging from 14 to 20 points over five potential Republican foes for reelection that we tested against her.

Former Congressman Jeb Bradley does the best but still trails by 14 points at 52/38. He is followed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas and Sununu family member Chris Sununu who trail by 16 points each at 51/35 and 53/37 respectively, former Congressman Frank Guinta who trails by 18 at 54/36, and 2012 primary runner up Kevin Smith who has a 20 point deficit at 52/32. Hassan holds a double digit lead among independents and pulls double digit support from Republican voters in each match up.

A few other notes from New Hampshire:

Democrats lead the way in Colorado

Raleigh, N.C. – John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP's newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.

Hickenlooper and Udall lead for reelection

John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are both pretty popular and Colorado Republicans have a very weak bench, so PPP's newest poll of the state finds both Democrats in pretty good shape for reelection next year.

Hickenlooper's approval rating is 53%, with 44% of voters disapproving of him. The number of voters disapproving of Hickenlooper has spiked from just 26% when we polled the state in November all the way up to 44%. His approval number is pretty steady though, dropping from just 55% to 53%. What's happened is that a lot of Republicans and conservative leaning independents who were neutral on him during his first two years have moved into the negative column after his leadership on issues like guns and civil unions this year. Still his numbers are pretty strong.

Udall has a 50% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him, the best numbers we've found for him so far since he took office. Most importantly for his reelection prospects, he's at a 50/31 spread with independents similar to his overall numbers.

With no serious Republicans running for either of these offices yet we basically tested every major GOP figure in the state against both Hickenlooper and Udall: former Congressman Bob Beauprez, Congressman Cory Gardner, Secretary of State Scott Gessler, 2010 Senate candidate Jane Norton, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton, Attorney General John Suthers, former Congressman Tom Tancredo, and Congressman Scott Tipton.

Not a single one of the Republicans we tested has a positive statewide favorability rating. The one who comes closest is Suthers, who still has a -6 favorability rating. In addition to being unliked the GOP bench is also largely unknown- the only one with higher than 52% name recognition is Tancredo.

Only one of the Republicans comes within single digits of Hickenlooper or Udall in any of the match ups. That's Beauprez who trails each of them by 7- 50/43 against Hickenlooper and 48/41 against Udall.