Public Policy Polling

McAuliffe opens 2013 with a lead over Cuccinelli

Raleigh, N.C. – Virginia is unique in its one-term limit on its governors, and if current numbers hold, the GOP may see its four-year moment in control of the entire state end this fall.  Likely Democratic nominee Terry McAuliffe leads likely Republican opponent Ken Cuccinelli by five points (46-41) in PPP’s first 2013 poll of the state.

Cuccinelli, currently the state’s Attorney General, has much higher name identification than McAuliffe, who failed to get his party’s nomination four years ago, despite his establishment support and fundraising advantage.  Only about half of voters say they are familiar with McAuliffe, but almost three-quarters are with their A.G.  If name recognition is neutralized at this point, McAuliffe’s lead jumps to 13 points (52-39), suggesting he could do even better as he begins to officially campaign for office.

McAuliffe has early lead in VA-Gov

PPP's first Virginia poll of 2013 finds Terry McAuliffe leading Ken Cuccinelli 46-41. When Bill Bolling is thrown into the mix as an independent candidate he gets 15%, with McAuliffe's lead expanding to 8 points at 40/32.

The story of the race at this point is really how unpopular Cuccinelli is. Only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. Even among Republicans there are significant doubts about him- only 48% see him favorably with a much higher than normal 23% of voters within his own party seeing him negatively.

That pause about Cuccinelli among Republicans is a big part of why McAuliffe has this early 5 point lead. 11% of Republicans say they would cross over to support McAuliffe if Cuccinelli was the nominee, compared to only 6% of Democrats who say they would vote for Cuccinelli. McAuliffe also has a 43/39 lead with independents, who give Cuccinelli a 31/46 favorability spread.

McAuliffe is essentially functioning as a generic Democratic candidate at this point. Only 51% of voters are familiar enough with him to have an opinion and those who have one are pretty evenly divided about him with 25% rating him favorably and 26% unfavorably. His early lead has more to do with voters disliking Cuccinelli than actually liking him.

NJ on the 2013 Governor’s race and 2016 Presidential

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Jersey poll finds Chris Christie hard to beat in a hypothetical match up for next year’s Governor’s race when pitted against Democrats Cory Booker, Barbara Buono, Richard Codey, Bruce Springsteen and Steve Sweeney. Booker polled closest to Christie, 14 points behind, compared to former Governor Richard Codey, trailing by 22 points. State Senators Steve Sweeney and Barbara Buono fared worse against Christie than The Boss did, with a 36 point spread for Springsteen, to Sweeney’s 37 and Buono’s 40 point deficit. While the news for Democrats is dismal, it’s not surprising- Christie’s approval has never been higher, at 67%. What is surprising is how he performed among women and Democrats. On the topic of Hurricane Sandy, women approved his handling of the storm 91-8 and Democrats 90-9.

Christie strongly favored for reelection, voters still lukewarm on 2016 bid

Chris Christie's the most popular Governor PPP's polled on all year, and he looks pretty safe for reelection next year. But New Jersey voters still aren't sold on him as a Presidential candidate in 2016.

67% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Christie's doing to only 25% who disapprove. He's at 91/8 among Republicans, 65/28 among independents, and 56/32 even among Democrats. Christie's standing outpaces outgoing New Hampshire Governor John Lynch whose 62% approval rating had previously made him the most popular in our polling. 89% of voters approve of how Christie handled Hurricane Sandy to only 9% who disapprove.

Christie would far outpace any of the Democrats who have been discussed as potential candidates for Governor. He leads Cory Booker 50-36, Richard Codey 53-31, Steve Sweeney 57-20, and Barbara Buono 60-20. Against Sweeney and Buono Christie actually wins the Democratic vote, something I don't think PPP has ever found a candidate in any contest we've ever polled doing across party lines. We threw Bruce Springsteen into the poll just for fun and despite a 54/23 favorability rating even he trails Christie by a 61/25 margin in a hypothetical match up.

Booker is the clear first choice of Democrats for who they'd like as their candidate next year. 46% pick him to 23% for Codey with Buono at 7% and Sweeney at 6% far behind.

Despite Christie's massive popularity only 38% of voters in the state want him to run for President in 2016 compared to 44% who don't want to see him make a bid. Christie would trail Hillary Clinton 52-40 in a hypothetical match up among New Jersey voters, although he would lead Joe Biden 47-41 and Andrew Cuomo 50-35. That's not really a knock on Christie so much as it is a testament to Clinton's popularity- 67% of voters in the state see her favorably to only 27% with a negative view.

Close VA-Gov. election unless Warner returns

Raleigh, N.C. – With it being one of the most crucial states for Republicans this fall, both for their chances of retaking the presidency and the Senate, few real voters in Virginia have been putting much focus on next year's gubernatorial contest.  Thus, there has been essentially no movement between the potential candidates in the three times PPP has polled on the race in the last four months.  If Mark Warner chooses to abandon his Senate seat for another term in Richmond, the exceedingly popular former governor would be the overwhelming favorite.  If he does not, it will likely be a close election, regardless of whether Republicans settle on the presumably more electable Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling or the more ideologically strident and outspoken A.G. Ken Cuccinelli.

In his first and perhaps final term, Warner is the 15th most popular out of 74 senators on which PPP has polled since the start of 2011.  50% approve and only 27% disapprove of his job performance.  At this point, he would lead Bolling by 14 points (50-36) and Cuccinelli by 17 (53-36).  That is essentially the same as in July, and down a smidge for Warner since April.

Cuccinelli runs three to five points worse than Bolling right now.  While Bolling tops Terry McAuliffe by three (40-37), Cuccinelli fights the '09 Democratic primary runner-up to a 40-all tie.  The disparity is worse against former Congressman Tom Perriello.  Bolling tops him by three (39-36), but Cuccinelli is down two (39-41).

Same ol', same ol' in Virginia governor contest

With it being one of the most crucial states for Republicans this fall, both for their chances of retaking the presidency and the Senate, few in Virginia have been putting much focus on next year's gubernatorial contest.  Thus, there has been essentially no movement between the potential candidates in the three times we have polled on the race in the last four months.  If Mark Warner chooses to abandon his Senate seat for another term in Richmond, the exceedingly popular former governor would be the overwhelming favorite.  If he does not, it will likely be a close election, regardless of whether Republicans settle on the presumably more electable Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling or the more ideologically strident and outspoken A.G. Ken Cuccinelli.

In his first and perhaps final term, Warner is the 15th most popular out of 74 senators on which we've polled since the start of 2011.  50% approve and only 27% disapprove of his job performance.  At this point, he would lead Bolling by 14 points (50-36) and Cuccinelli by 17 (53-36).  That is essentially the same as in July, and down a smidge for Warner since April.

20-25% of voters are not sure who they favor in the four non-Warner variations of the race, a sign of low name identification for all the other candidates but Cuccinelli, of whom 64% have an opinion.  Only 31-39% can say how they feel personally about the other three.

Even though (and perhaps because) he is better known than the L.G., Cuccinelli runs three to five points worse than Bolling right now.  While Bolling tops Terry McAuliffe by three (40-37), Cuccinelli fights the '09 Democratic primary runner-up to a 40-all tie.  The disparity is worse against former Congressman Tom Perriello.  Bolling tops him by three (39-36), but Cuccinelli is down two (39-41).

Caveat: the earlier results were among registered voters who have voted in at least one of the last three general elections, and the latest among likely voters in this fall's election.  It remains to be seen what the political environment will be next fall.  If it is anything like 2009, a precursor to the Republican wave of 2010, the GOP nominee will probably edge it out, sans Warner.  But if Warner runs or national trends favor Democrats or voters tire of the policies of the term-limited but somewhat popular Bob McDonnell, or some combination of the three, the Democrats may have the advantage.

Full results here

Kaine leads Allen by two in Virginia

Raleigh, N.C. – Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46%-44% in the race to succeed Jim Webb in the U.S. Senate. Kaine’s lead has grown by one point since the last time PPP polled the race in April. At that time, Kaine led 46-45. Kaine leads Allen by 11 points among women, 49-38, while Allen leads among men 50-42. Both men take similar percentages of their respective party voters, with Democrats lining up behind Kaine 84-7 and Republicans supporting Allen 87-8.  It is among Independent voters where Kaine finds his advantage, leading Allen among them by a 45-37 margin.

Kaine also benefits from a net positive favorability rating, with 43% of voters having a favorable opinion of him and 38% unfavorable, largely unchanged from a 42-37 rating he received in last April’s poll. Allen’s numbers aren’t quite as good, with 39% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him and 42% unfavorable – a change for the worse from April when voters were split 38-38.

Kaine/Allen remains close

PPP's newest poll on the Virginia Senate race finds the same thing pretty much every survey on it for the last year and a half has- an extremely close contest with little movement. Tim Kaine leads George Allen 46-44 this month, just one point different from late April when Kaine was ahead 45-44.

Independents are giving Kaine his slight lead. Allen actually has his party a little bit more unified around him, taking 87% of Republicans to Kaine's 84% of Democrats. Allen's 65% showing in the primary was a little bit less than expected, but he's not having any trouble getting the base in line. But Kaine's ahead 45-37 with independents, and that's allowing him to have the overall advantage.

Kaine's proving to be better liked by voters. He has a +5 net favorability rating at 43/38. Meanwhile Allen comes in at a -3% spread with 39% rating him positively to 42% with a negative opinion.

One thing that's been surprising in each of our last 2 polls is Allen getting 18-21% of the black vote. It seems unlikely he'll be able to get that much in the end (although he did get 15% in 2006 according to the exit poll) but it might help explain why Kaine's not shying away from appearing with Obama in public. Also, although there aren't a lot of undecideds, it's worth noting that they support Obama 41-29 in the Presidential race, so it wouldn't hurt Kaine to try to grab onto those coattails.

We also took a look ahead to next year's race for Governor. The most likely scenario would seem to be Terry McAuliffe for the Democrats against either Ken Cuccinelli or Bill Bolling for the Republicans. Only Cuccinelli out of that group has much name recognition- 64% of voters are familiar with him compared to 31% each for Bolling and McAuliffe. But that notoriety may not be a good thing- while Bolling has a slight lead over McAuliffe, 36-33, McAuliffe has a small advantage over Cuccinelli, 41-37. Bolling also does 5 points better in a hypothetical contest with Tom Perriello than Cuccinelli does- there's a clear electability difference at this point between the Republican front runners.

Warner would defeat McDonnell in hypothetical Senate and Presidential races

Raleigh, N.C. – Virginians just can’t get enough of Mark Warner. He holds a double-digit lead over Bob McDonnell in a hypothetical 2014 U.S. Senate race, taking 51% to McConnell’s 40%. If both politicians were pitted against each other President in 2016, Warner would carry Virginia and defeat McDonnell 50%-37%

But Virginians don’t seem to want either man to run for President – more say Warner should not run for President than say he should. 34% of Virginians would like to see Mark Warner run for President in 2016 while 39% would not. Even fewer are enthusiastic about the idea of a 2016 McDonnell presidential bid, with just 24% supporting that idea and 52% opposed.

Virginia Miscellany

-An epic US Senate contest in 2014 between Mark Warner and Bob McDonnell...might not be that epic. Warner leads McDonnell 51-40 in a hypothetical head to head. Warner would take 14% of the Republican vote while McDonnell gets just 7% of Democrats, and Warner has a narrow edge with independents as well. McDonnell is popular but there's still no doubt who Virginia's favorite politician is.

-Virginians would prefer that neither Warner nor McDonnell go for the White House in 2016. They're pretty closely divided on a possible Warner bid with 34% saying he should run and 39% that he should not. There's less division in regards to McDonnell. Only 24% think he should run for President while 52% are opposed to the possibility.

-There's a pretty strong consensus among Virginia voters across party lines that the state's rule holding Governors to one term should be dropped. 60% support letting Governors run for reelection to just 31% opposed to the prospect. That doesn't necessarily mean McDonnell would be able to win a second term though. Just 36% say they would vote to reelect him, while 51% would prefer someone new.

-Jim Webb continues to post solid but not spectacular approval numbers as he heads out of office. 42% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 31% who disapprove with a higher than normal 27% having no opinion one way or the other. I think a Webb/Allen contest would have been similarly competitive to the Kaine/Allen one most likely.