Public Policy Polling

Colorado Senate Race Down to the Wire

Raleigh, N.C. – The Senate race in Colorado continues to look like it will be one of the closest in the country on Tuesday night.  PPP's final poll there finds Ken Buck ahead of Michael Bennet by the slimmest of margins, 49-48.

Each candidate has his party base pretty much sewn up.  Bennet is winning 87% of Democrats and Buck is winning 86% of Republicans.  Giving Buck his slim lead is a 50-46 advantage among independents.

GOP headed for wins in Illinois

Raleigh, N.C. – Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins.  Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state's open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.

There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:

Dems remain ahead in California

Raleigh, N.C. – The contests for Senate and Governor in California have tightened over the final week of the campaign, although the Democratic candidates still retain the lead in both races.  Barbara Boxer is up 50-46 on Carly Fiorina for the Senate, while Jerry Brown is ahead of Meg Whitman by a 51-46 margin for Governor.

Boxer leads despite posting atrocious approval numbers in this final poll at 40% of voters happy with her job performance and 50% displeased.  Fortunately for her Californians aren't real enamored with Fiorina either- only 42% rate her favorably to 44% with a negative opinion.  Boxer's position right now might be a lot more perilous if she had drawn a stronger opponent.

Sink, Scott within a point

Raleigh, N.C. – The Florida Governor's race is too close to call as the election enters its
final two days. Alex Sink leads Rick Scott by just a single point at 48-47. Scott has
gained over the last three weeks among conservative leaning voters who don't like him
but have decided they don't dislike him enough to let a Democrat win.

If Scott does manage to pull it out he'll probably be the country's most unpopular newly
elected Governor. Only 34% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him while
54% see him in a negative light. But Republican inclined voters are ultimately putting
politics over personality and that's allowed Scott to make gains since our last poll.

GOP ahead in Illinois

Republicans continue to lead the races for both Governor and Senator in Illinois, albeit by close margins. Mark Kirk is ahead of Alexi Giannoulias 46-42 for the state's open Senate seat and Bill Brady is ahead of Pat Quinn 45-40 for Governor.

There are three main reasons Republicans are headed for big gains across the country this year and the Illinois races exemplify all three of them:

-Independents are leaning strongly toward the GOP. Kirk leads Giannoulias 46-31 with them and Brady has a 45-27 advantage over Quinn with them.

-Republican voters are much more unified around their candidates this year than Democrats are. 87% of GOP identifiers are planning to vote for Kirk while only 78% of Democrats are planning to vote for Giannoulias. In the Governor's race 86% of Republicans support Brady while Quinn's only getting 75% support from his party.

-Republican voters are much more likely to head to the polls this year than Democrats. In 2008 Barack Obama won Illinois by 25 points. Those who say they're likely to vote this year only supported him by 14 points. That's a strong indication that many of the voters who were a part of the Obama 'wave' are staying at home this year.

No matter who wins either of these races Illinois voters will be left with a Governor and Senator that they don't like. Giannoulias' favorability is 35/49, Kirk's isn't much better at 39/45. Quinn's approval is 32/54 and that's a good thing for Brady because voters don't like him either, giving him a favorability of 39/45.

The presence of the third party candidates in the race seems to really be hurting Giannoulias. In a straight head to head between him and Kirk he trails by only a 46-45 margin. But a fair number of progressive voters who don't like Giannoulias but can't bring themselves to vote for Kirk are supporting the minor candidates in the contest.

As for Quinn he's made an impressive comeback over the course of the campaign and his prospects certainly look a lot better than they did back in the spring and summer. But at the end of the day it's an open question whether an incumbent Governor with a 32% approval rating can win reelection, no matter how blue their state or weak their opponent.

Full results here

California tightens

The contests for Senate and Governor in California have tightened over the final week of the campaign, although the Democratic candidates still retain the lead in both races. Barbara Boxer is up 50-46 on Carly Fiorina for the Senate, while Jerry Brown is ahead of Meg Whitman by a 51-46 margin for Governor.

Boxer leads despite posting atrocious approval numbers in this final poll at 40% of voters happy with her job performance and 50% displeased. Fortunately for her Californians aren't real enamored with Fiorina either- only 42% rate her favorably to 44% with a negative opinion. Boxer's position right now might be a lot more perilous if she had drawn a stronger opponent.

The formula for winning as a Republican in a deep blue state is to get about 20% of the Democratic vote to cross over and to rack up a large advantage with independents. Fiorina is winning only 12% of Democrats and actually trails Boxer by a 50-46 margin with independents. She'll have to outperform her poll numbers on both of those measures Tuesday to have a chance at winning.

The story is pretty similar in the race for Governor. Meg Whitman is winning only 13% of the Democratic vote and trails Jerry Brown by the same 50-46 margin with independents that Fiorina has against Boxer. Despite her profligate spending California voters never warmed up to Whitman- 50% of them express an unfavorable opinion about her to just 38% who say that they like her.

Proposition 19, which would legalize marijuana in California, appears to be headed for defeat. 51% of voters say they will oppose it to only 44% who plan to cast a yes vote. Polls showed support for the measure over the summer but its popularity has faded as the election has moved closer.

Full results here

Florida Gov very close

The Florida Governor's race is too close to call as the election enters its final two days. Alex Sink leads Rick Scott by just a single point at 48-47. Scott has gained over the last three weeks among conservative leaning voters who don't like him but have decided they don't dislike him enough to let a Democrat win.

If Scott does manage to pull it out he'll probably be the country's most unpopular newly elected Governor. Only 34% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him while 54% see him in a negative light. But Republican inclined voters are ultimately putting politics over personality and that's allowed Scott to make gains since our last poll.

Some have wondered, given how closely Scott is polling, if Bill McCollum would have been a shoo in had he been the Republican nominee. He may have had less baggage than McCollum but he doesn't poll any differently, trailing Sink 46-45 in a hypothetical match.

The topline numbers in the Senate race are not all that interesting- Marco Rubio is headed for an easy victory as he has been ever since the primary with 47% to 30% for Charlie Crist and 21% Kendrick Meek.

The most interesting number within the poll, even though it's not translating into extra voters, is Meek's favorability. In early October 35% of voters in the state said they had a positive opinion of Meek to 37% with a negative one. That's shot up now to 42% favorable and 32% unfavorable in just a few weeks time. Voters have responded positively to how Meek has conducted himself through all the speculation about whether he would or would not bring his campaign to a halt.

All the drama over whether Meek would drop out of the race might have been pretty pointless anyway. In a hypothetical head to head match up with Rubio Crist trails by a 48-44 margin. He may very well have lost even if Meek had pulled out.

Crist's political future after what is likely to be a pretty crushing loss tomorrow looks murky. Only 17% of voters in the state say they would definitely support him if he were to seek political office again in the future. That's not a particularly strong base of support and more than twice as many voters as that- 39%- say there's no way they'd vote for Crist in a future campaign. 43% are noncommittal on Crist's future.

Full results here

GOP likely to sweep in Pennsylvania

Raleigh, N.C. – Pennsylvania flirted a little bit with Democrats in the final weeks of this year's election, making them think they might be able to pull off an upset in the Senate and/or Gubernatorial contests that had looked good as gone for most of the year.  It looks like the GOP will in the end sweep those races though, if by smaller margins than they had shown in polling throughout much of 2010.

Miller holds 7 point lead in Alaska Senate Race

Raleigh, N.C. – Joe Miller is favored heading into the final two days of the US Senate campaign in Alaska.  37% of voters say they'll pick him while 30% plan to vote for Scott McAdams and another 30% plan to write in Lisa Murkowski.

Miller is winning despite having the worst personal favorability numbers of the three candidates.  Only 36% have a positive opinion of him while 59% view him in a negative light.  McAdams is by far the most popular with 50% rating him favorably to only 30% with an unfavorable one.  Voters aren't very enamored with Murkowski either, giving her a 37/53 approval rating.

Dayton holds small lead in Minnesota

Raleigh, N.C. – Mark Dayton is the slight favorite heading into the final three days of the Minnesota Governor's race but Tom Emmer's close enough that he could still come from behind to win. Dayton's getting 43% to 40% for Emmer and 15% for Tom Horner.

The Minnesota Gubernatorial race is somewhat emblematic of the unhappiness voters across the country are feeling with politicians this year.  None of the three candidates has a net positive favorability rating.  Horner comes closest at -1 (35/36), followed by Dayton at -2 (43/45), and Emmer at -14 (37/51).