Public Policy Polling

Perry’s future looks bleak

Raleigh, N.C. – -Rick Perry's future prospects for elected office in Texas are looking tenuous. Only 29% of voters think he should run for Governor again in 2014, while 64% think he should not. There's actually some possibility he could win another term anyway though. 49% of Republicans think he should run again to 38% who think he should not and obviously if you win the Republican nomination in Texas you're always going to start out in a pretty good position for the general.

The White House is definitely not in Perry's future though if Texans have anything to say about it. Only 19% of voters think he should run for President again to 73% who think he should not, and even among Republicans just 31% think he should make another bid for chief executive.

Texas Miscellany

-Rick Perry's future prospects for elected office in Texas are looking tenuous. Only 29% of voters think he should run for Governor again in 2014, while 64% think he should not. There's actually some possibility he could win another term anyway though. 49% of Republicans think he should run again to 38% who think he should not and obviously if you win the Republican nomination in Texas you're always going to start out in a pretty good position for the general.

The White House is definitely not in Perry's future though if Texans have anything to say about it. Only 19% of voters think he should run for President again to 73% who think he should not, and even among Republicans just 31% think he should make another bid for chief executive.

-Texans think Lyndon Johnson is their greatest President ever, although he certainly benefits from a split in the Bush vote. 39% bestow that honor to Johnson to 22% who pick George W. Bush and 19% who pick George H.W. Bush. The senior Bush is actually the best liked of the former Presidents with a 54/32 favorability rating. But voters are more passionate- for positive or negative- about the junior Bush and Johnson. Johnson has a 44/30 favorability and W. Bush's is 48/44.

Santorum leads by 14 in Louisiana

Raleigh, N.C. – Rick Santorum is headed for a commanding win in Louisiana on Saturday. We find him with 42% to 28% for Mitt Romney, 18% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Ron Paul, and 2% for Buddy Roemer.

It's interesting to look at these numbers in the context of last week's results in Alabama and Mississippi. Mitt Romney averaged 30% in those two contests, and that's about where he is here. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich combined for 64% in those two contests, and they combine for a relatively similar 60% here. The big difference though is that conservative voters appears to be abandoning Gingrich for Santorum now, and that's why Louisiana is likely to be much more lopsided than either of last week's contests were. If Gingrich was completely out of the race Santorum would have a 22 point lead, 53-31, over Romney here with Paul at 11%.

$1 president is #1 in America’s hearts

Raleigh, N.C. – America’s first president is still its most popular, according to PPP’s latest national survey released on the heels of Valentine’s and ahead of Presidents’ Day.  89% of voters see George Washington favorably, and only 3% unfavorably, followed in the top ten by Abraham Lincoln (85-7), Thomas Jefferson (74-6), Teddy Roosevelt (66-9), John Adams (55-9), Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower (each 62-11), John F. Kennedy (70-21), John Quincy Adams (52-7), and Franklin D. Roosevelt (62-22).  Ronald Reagan is 14^th most popular (62-30), Gerald Ford 16^th (49-28), Bill Clinton 17^th (54-38), George H.W. Bush 19^th (51-42), and Jimmy Carter tied for 29^th (44-44).

The least popular by far is Richard Nixon (27-59), followed by ten others in negative territory: Lyndon B. Johnson (34-42), Warren Harding (12-19), Millard Fillmore (7-12), Herbert Hoover (25-29), Calvin Coolidge (18-22), Barack Obama (46-49), Chester Arthur (10-13), Martin Van Buren (13-15), James Buchanan (11-13), and George W. Bush (45-46).  54% (James Monroe) to 84% of voters (Franklin Pierce) have no opinion of 20 of the 43 presidents, mostly 19^th- and early-20^th-century commanders-in-chief.  Only eight have “not sure” figures in the single digits, led by the current head of state.

PPP: presidential popularity poll

As part of our national poll last weekend, we decided to do a special Presidents' Day poll and ask voters how they feel about each of the 43 presidents we've had, including the current one.  (Yes, Obama is the 44th, but remember: Grover Cleveland was both the 22nd and 24th.)

What we found is that America's first president is still its most popular.  89% of voters see George Washington favorably, and only 3% unfavorably, followed in the top ten by Abraham Lincoln (85-7), Thomas Jefferson (74-6), Teddy Roosevelt (66-9), John Adams (55-9), Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower (each 62-11), John F. Kennedy (70-21), John Quincy Adams (52-7), and Franklin D. Roosevelt (62-22).  Of other recent presidents, Ronald Reagan is 14^th most popular (62-30), Gerald Ford 16^th (49-28), Bill Clinton 17^th (54-38), George H.W. Bush 19^th (51-42), and Jimmy Carter tied for 29^th (44-44).

The least popular by far is Richard Nixon (27-59), followed by ten others in negative territory: Lyndon B. Johnson (34-42), Warren Harding (12-19), Millard Fillmore (7-12), Herbert Hoover (25-29), Calvin Coolidge (18-22), Barack Obama (46-49), Chester Arthur (10-13), Martin Van Buren (13-15), James Buchanan (11-13), and George W. Bush (45-46).

Gore would beat Bush in Florida today, Tebow very popular

Raleigh, N.C. – The 2000 presidential election recount in Florida is still a divisive topic, but after the results of the resulting Bush presidency are clear, Sunshine State voters would have preferred to have elected Al Gore over George W. Bush by three points (48-45) if they could do it over now.  Independents prefer Gore by the same margin.

Florida ended its ban on gay residents adopting children last fall, but the issue still splits voters.  45% think that was the right move, but 43% think gay couples should still not be able to raise children.  Independents are pretty strongly for it (50-36), but more Democrats (34%) disagree with the decision than Republicans agree (27%).  As is the case on most social policies, the youngest voters (53-41) are most progressive, and the oldest voters least (39-48).

Florida Miscellany

-If Florida voters could redo the 2000 election for President it would...still be pretty close, although probably not close enough to cause the chaos it did then. Al Gore leads George W. Bush 48-45 in a hypothetical rematch. I have to think if we'd asked that question four years ago Gore would have been up by a considerably larger margin, and it speaks to the fact that feelings towards Bush have softened a little bit since he left office.

-Barack Obama, Bill Nelson, Marco Rubio, and Rick Scott all have sub 50% approval ratings in Florida but one person who does achieve a high level of popularity in the state is...Tim Tebow. 59% of Floridians have a positive opinion of him to only 16% with an unfavorable one. He's particularly strong with Republicans (71/10) but is seen well by independents (57/13) and Democrats (50/21). Maybe if he's flamed out as an NFL quarterback by 2014 he could take out Rick Scott in the primary. That might be on our next poll.

-It was a tough year for the Gators and it looks like some fans might be jumping off the bandwagon. In late June we found 30% of Florida fans saying they were Gators fans to 19% for Florida State. Now that gap has closed with 26% identifying as Florida fans to 21% for the Seminoles. Central Florida and Miami tie for 3rd at 11%, followed by South Florida at 8%, and Florida International and Florida Atlantic both at 3%.

JFK, Reagan, Clinton most popular recent ex-presidents

Raleigh, N.C. – There is no question who the most beloved president of the last half century is: John F. Kennedy.  74% of American voters have a favorable opinion of Kennedy, and only 15% an unfavorable one.  Depending on how one looks at it, the next most popular is either Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan, according to PPP’s latest national survey.  More (62%) have a positive view of Clinton than Reagan (60%), but also fewer dislike the Gipper (30%) than Bubba (34%).

Kennedy, Reagan tops in Americans' Hearts

On our national poll last week we asked Americans their opinion about every former President of the last 50 years.  Here's how they rank from most popular to least popular as measured by net favorability:

1) John F. Kennedy (74/15 favorability, net of +59). JFK is the only one of the former Presidents seen positively by a majority of Democrats (90/6), independents (70/16), and Republicans (59/25).  A majority of voters within every demographic subgroup included in the poll has a favorable view of Kennedy.

2) Ronald Reagan (60/30 favorability, net of +30). Reagan is just as popular with Republicans as Kennedy is with Democrats at a 90/7 spread.  And although not quite to the same extent as Kennedy he has exceptionally good numbers with independents as well at 62/28.  Where he really falls short is the crossover popularity- only 35% of Democrats like him with 51% expressing a dim view.

3) Bill Clinton (62/34 favorability, net of +28).  The most interesting thing about Clinton's numbers is probably that he's more popular with black voters than any of the other Presidents of the last 50 years, just barely edging Kennedy at an 86/9 spread.  33% of Republicans express a positive opinion of him which seems remarkable given the level of vitriol toward him while he was actually in office.

Ohio down on Boehner, blames Bush for economy

Raleigh, N.C. – The debt deal has caused Ohioans to sour on John Boehner.  When PPP polled the state in May, 37% both approved and disapproved of Boehner’s performance in office.  Now, only 34% approve, and his disapproval is up to 47%.  The main cause? A movement of 23 points in the wrong direction with independents, from 37-34 to 34-54.  He has also declined with the two major parties.  Now, more Republicans disapprove (16%) than Democrats approve (12%), the opposite of three months ago, when only 8% of Republicans disapproved and 14% of Democrats approved.  Boehner’s native state does still see him more positively than they do Nancy Pelosi, however, with 49% viewing Boehner more favorably and 34% Pelosi.  14% see them equally well.