Public Policy Polling

McCain continues to lead in South Carolina

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 The Republican candidates still running for
President are Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee,
John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and
Fred Thompson. If the primary was today, who
would you vote for? If you would vote for Rudy
Giuliani, press 1. If for Mike Huckabee, press
2. If for John McCain, press 3. If for Ron Paul,
press 4. If for Mitt Romney, press 5. If for Fred
Thompson, press 6. If you’re undecided press
7.
Giuliani................... . 4%
Huckabee............... .20%
McCain................... .28%
Paul ....................... . 4%
Romney .................. 18%
Thompson............... 17%
Undecided............... 9%

Q2 This summer there will be a primary election for
US Senate. So far the candidates include Tim
Carnes, John Cina, Lindsey Graham, Mark
McBride, and Buddy Witherspoon. If the
election was today, who would you vote for? If
Tim Carnes, press 1. If John Cina, press 2. If
Lindsey Graham, press 3. If Mark McBride,
press 4. If Buddy Witherspoon, press 5. If
you’re undecided, press 6.
Tim Carnes ..................................................... 4%
John Cina........................................................ 3%
Lindsey Graham ............................................. 52%
Mark McBride.................................................. 8%
Buddy Witherspoon ........................................ 5%
Undecided....................................................... 28%

South Carolina Republican Presidential Poll

Public Policy Polling conducted a second poll on the Republican Presidential primary in South Carolina last night. The results:

John McCain 28
Mike Huckabee 20
Mitt Romney 18
Fred Thompson 17
Ron Paul 4
Rudy Giuliani 4

The key finding here is that the results of Michigan didn't really do anything to alter the landscape in South Carolina. With some small shifts, everyone is in the same place they were when we polled the race late last week. McCain is at the same 28%, his lead over Huckabee has increased from seven points to eight. Romney only went up one point after winning Michigan. The biggest gainer is Fred Thompson, who has been campaigning heavily in the state and went from 14 to 17. Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul each drop a point, going from 5 to 4.

The biggest outcome of the South Carolina primary may be the virtual death of Mike Huckabee's candidacy. If he can't win a state with as many evangelicals as South Carolina, it's hard to see where he can win in the upcoming primaries. If his strategy is to sweep to the nomination by cleaning up in the southern states, there is other bad news in Public Policy Polling's recent surveys. For instance a North Carolina poll conducted last week showed a 16 point lead he held in December dropping to one.

Even with the high number of evangelicals in the state, only 12% identified moral and family values as the issue they're most concerned with. Huckabee holds a significant 43-19 lead over those folks. The top three issues for Republican voters in the state though are the economy, immigration, and the war. On the economy, McCain leads with 35% to 18% for Huckabee and Romney. Romney and Thompson are knotted for the most support with folks most concerned about immigration at 27% with McCain behind at 20%. On the war, McCain leads Romney 38-16.

It just doesn't appear that many evangelicals in the state are making religious views a main criterion when they think about voting in the primary. And that's bad news for Mike Huckabee.

McCain leads all three parts of the state. In the Low Country he leads Romney 30-23. In the Midlands he leads Huckabee 30-23. In the Upstate he leads 25-21 over Huckabee.

Full results here.

Will Pat McCrory follow the same route as Fred Thompson?

Around the middle of last year Republicans in North Carolina were unhappy with their choices for President. They didn't know a lot of the candidates, and the candidates they did know they weren't particularly enthralled with.

Then Fred Thompson started talking about entering the race. Folks didn't really know him either. But they knew at least it was a new face in the race and that they didn't like the folks who were already in.

So he started leading our polls even before he entered the race, and for two months after he finally joined in September he continued to lead them.

But a funny thing happened. The more folks got to know Thompson, the less they thought he'd be a good President. And as time went on they got to know Mike Huckabee a lot better, and decided that they actually liked him a lot more than they liked Thompson. And now in January Thompson is fourth in the state while Huckabee, who wasn't even in the picture three months ago, is in the lead.

The Republican Governors race is basically where the Presidential race was eight months ago. The candidates haven't been capturing the electorate's attention. Now Pat McCrory is the new guy in the race and a lot of people getting polled are thinking that he must be better than the folks already running. That's showing in the two polls over the last week by us and SurveyUSA that have McCrory in the lead.

The voters still don't really know McCrory though. It's entirely possible that over the next four months GOP voters will decide they don't think he's that great either. And maybe as they get to know Bob Orr or Fred Smith or Bill Graham better in the ensuing weeks, they'll decide like they did with Huckabee that they really do like one of them.

McCrory's definitely the front runner now though, and it'll be interesting to see if he can keep it up through the primary, or if he's the next Fred Thompson.

Edwards, Romney seen as sexiest candidates by SC voters

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Who do you think is the sexiest candidate for
President of either party? If you think Hillary
Clinton is the sexiest, press 1. If you think
John Edwards is, press 2. If you think Rudy
Giuliani is, press 3. If you think Mike Huckabee
is, press 4. If you think John McCain is, press
5. If you think Barack Obama is, press 6. If
you think Mitt Romney is, press 7. If you think
Fred Thompson is, press 8. If you don’t think
any of the candidates are sexy, press 9.
Clinton..................... 11%
Edwards.................. 16%
Giuliani.................... 1%
Huckabee................ 2%
McCain.................... 4%
Obama.................... 10%
Romney .................. 11%
Thompson............... 3%
None are sexy......... 41%

Q2 If you are a woman, press 1, if a man, press 2.
Women ................... 52% Men......................... 48%

Sexiest Presidential Candidates Poll

PPP asked South Carolina voters who they thought the sexiest candidate for President of either party was. The results:

John Edwards 16
Mitt Romney 11
Hillary Clinton 11
Barack Obama 10
John McCain 4
Fred Thompson 3
Mike Huckabee 2
Rudy Giuliani 1
None of the candidates are sexy 41

Some Republicans have claimed that the media is giving more attention to the Democratic candidates because of liberal bias. But this poll shows that maybe it's just because the Democrats are sexier. Even in heavily Republican South Carolina, 37% of respondents chose a Democrat while just 21% chose a Republican. Of course the big winner was 'none of the candidates are sexy' with 41%.

The poll also shows that sexy isn't enough to get folks to vote for you. Among Republicans, Mitt Romney was the top choice in the sexy primary with 17%, but he was third in the Presidential primary. John McCain, leading for President, ties for fourth for sexiness among Republicans with Hillary Clinton!

Among Democrats it's a three way tie with John Edwards and Hillary Clinton at 23% and Barack Obama just behind at 22%. Sadly for Edwards' Presidential hopes, more Democratic primary voters think he's the sexiest candidate than think he's the best candidate for President. He received just 16% in that poll.

When we've tested possible general election matchups in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina they've all shown John Edwards as the strongest possible Democratic nominee because of the crossover support he can earn from Republicans. That trend continues to the sexiness primary. Edwards is second behind Romney among likely GOP primary voters.

Anyway, full results and crosstabs here.

Obama, McCain widen leads in South Carolina

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

SC Democratic Primary Survey Results:

Q1 The Democratic candidates still running for
President are Hillary Clinton, John Edwards,
Dennis Kucinich, and Barack Obama. If the
primary was today, who would you vote? If you
would vote for Hillary Clinton, press 1. If for
John Edwards, press 2. If for Dennis Kucinich,
press 3. If for Barack Obama, press 4. If
you’re undecided press 5.
Clinton..................... 31%
Edwards.................. 16%
Kucinich .................. 1%
Obama.................... 44%
Undecided............... 8%

Q2 I am going to name 7 issues. Which of these is
most important to you? The War in Iraq,
education, the economy and jobs, taxes, moral
or family values, health care, or immigration. If
the War in Iraq is most important, press 1. If
education, press 2. If the economy and jobs,
press 3. If taxes, press 4. If moral and family
values, press 5. If health care, press 6. If
immigration, press 7. If some other issue is
most important, press 8.
War in Iraq ............ 27%
Education .............. 10%
Economy and jobs. 40%
Taxes .................... 1%
Moral and family
values....................3%
Health care............ 14%
Immigration ........... 3%
Other ..................... 2%

South Carolina Results: Obama, McCain lead

PPP did a poll on the Presidential primaries in South Carolina Friday and Saturday. Here are the results:

Barack Obama 44
Hillary Clinton 31
John Edwards 16
Dennis Kucinich 1

Barack Obama appears to be getting an 'Oprah bounce' in South Carolina, leading Hillary Clinton 42-37 among women. Clinton is not going to win any states where she doesn't carry the female vote, and this is one that fits that category right now.

There's also been a lot of speculation that Obama needed to put up a strong performance somewhere before he really got a strong hold on the black vote. His victory in Iowa appears to have allowed him to make that gain in the Palmetto State, where 68% of African Americans said they would give Obama their votes.

Obama leads the Midlands and the Low Country by significant margins. Things are closer in the Upstate, where John Edwards was born. There Obama and Clinton are knotted at 32%, with Edwards just behind with 28%.

It seems doubtful with Obama expanding his lead in South Carolina that Clinton will be able to come back for a victory in the next two weeks. That said, no one is likely to underestimate her after New Hampshire. Nonetheless it appears a victory in Nevada this weekend is imperative to Clinton's chances. The momentum that would result from Obama claiming victories on consecutive Saturdays could derail the Clinton campaign.

John McCain 28
Mike Huckabee 21
Mitt Romney 17
Fred Thompson 14
Rudy Giuliani 5
Ron Paul 5

John McCain is getting a lot more momentum off his victory in New Hampshire than Mike Huckabee got from taking Iowa.

It's been assumed that Huckabee would do well in the state because of the high number of evangelicals voting in the Republican primary, but only 16% of respondents to the poll listed moral and family values as the issue of greatest concern to them. As expected Huckabee is the choice of 52% of those folks. But more respondents chose the economy and jobs (27%), the War in Iraq (21%), and immigration (21%) as their top issue. McCain leads Huckabee 37-18 among voters who are most concerned with the economy and 36-15 with people most concerned about the war. Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson tied as the top choice of respondents who listed immigration as their top priority.

McCain has a wide lead in the Low Country, while leading Huckabee by small margins in the Upstate and the Midlands.

Full results here.

McCrory leads GOP Field

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 There will be a number of people running for
President in 2008 as Republicans. Some of
the most talked about are Rudy Giuliani, John
McCain, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike
Huckabee, and Ron Paul. If the Republican
primary were today which of these men would
you vote for, or would you vote for somebody
else? If you would vote for Rudy Giuliani,
press 1 on your keypad now. If for John
McCain, press 2. If for Mitt Romney, press 3.
If for Fred Thompson, press 4. If for Mike
Huckabee, press 5. If for Ron Paul, press 6. If
you would vote for a different candidate, press
7. If you are undecided, press 8.
Giuliani.................... 9%
McCain.................... 26%
Romney .................. 15%
Thompson............... 11%
Huckabee................ 27%
Paul ........................ 4%
Other....................... 1%
Undecided............... 6%

Q2 There will also be a number of Republican
candidates for governor. Bill Graham, Bob Orr,
Elbie Powers and Fred Smith have all
announced their candidacies. If the primary
election were today, which of these men would
you vote for? If you would vote for Bill
Graham, press 1. If for Bob Orr, press 2. If for
Elbie Powers, press 3. If for Fred Smith, press
4. If you are undecided, press 5.
Graham................. 17%
Orr......................... 11%
Powers .................. 2%
Smith..................... 21%
Undecided............. 49%

January Republican Tracking Poll: President

Mike Huckabee 27
John McCain 26
Mitt Romney 15
Fred Thompson 11
Rudy Giuliani 9
Ron Paul 4

There's only one real winner in this poll and that's John McCain. McCain went from just 8% in December's poll to a very close second place.

Huckabee, Thompson, and Giuliani all go in the loser category. Huckabee's lead dropped from 16 points last month to 1 this time around. Thompson, after leading the GOP field for most of the year in North Carolina, is down to fourth. And Giuliani fell from 17% and 2nd place to 9% and 5th place.

If Mike Huckabee is counting on running to the nomination by putting together strong victories in the south this isn't a good sign. John McCain's momentum after winning New Hampshire is clearly going a lot further than what Huckabee derived out of his success in Iowa.

Justin Guillory's picks

On the thread with my picks I wrote:

I should say that you should really ask Justin Guillory, formerly of PPP and now of the Bev Perdue campaign, what his picks are. During the winter of 2004 we had a pool for picking the caucus in a US National Elections course we were in together at Carolina and Justin destroyed the rest of the class, the only person who predicted that Dean would tank so badly and Edwards would do so well. I finished, well, we won't get into that.

Well Justin went ahead and sent me his picks. So here they are:

Obama 38
Edwards 35
Clinton 24

Huckabee 31
Romney 30
McCain 18
Thompson 9
Giuliani 8
Paul 4