Public Policy Polling

Headed for a Photo Finish in Iowa

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other.  Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.


The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum's side. He's moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13. Santorum's net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else's favorability exceeds 52%.  He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he's their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul.

Headed for a Photo Finish in Iowa

The Republican caucus in Iowa is headed for a photo finish, with the three leading contenders all within two points of each other.  Ron Paul is at 20%, Mitt Romney at 19%, and Rick Santorum at 18%. Rounding out the field are Newt Gingrich at 14%, Rick Perry at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.


The momentum in the race is completely on Santorum's side. He's moved up 8 points since a PPP poll earlier in the week, while no one else has seen more than a one point gain in their support. Among voters who say they decided who to vote for in the last seven days he leads Romney 29-17 with Paul and Gingrich both at 13.

Santorum's net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else's favorability exceeds 52%.  He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he's their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum's taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he's at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney.  And with Evangelicals he's at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

Other than Santorum's rise the other big story of this week is Paul's fall.  He was at 24% earlier in the week but has dropped to 20%. That decline in support coincides with a precipitous drop in his favorability numbers. On our last poll he was at +13 (53/40), but that's gone down 21 points on the margin to -8 (43/51).

Romney still up big in New Hampshire

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich's support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.

Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.

Romney still up big in New Hampshire

PPP's newest New Hampshire poll finds everything pretty much as it was a week and a half ago with one exception: Newt Gingrich's support continues to plummet in the state, allowing Ron Paul to move into a clear second place.

Mitt Romney continues to have a solid lead in the state with 36% to 21% for Paul, 13% for Gingrich, 12% for Jon Huntsman, 7% for Michele Bachmann, and 3% each for Buddy Roemer, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum. Every candidate is within 2 points of their standing when PPP polled New Hampshire 2 weekends ago with the exception of Gingrich, who has dropped from 17% to 13%.

There's little to suggest anyone could come from behind to defeat Romney in New Hampshire. He has the best favorability numbers in the state at 63/32 and 78% of his supporters are strongly committed to him, higher even than Paul's number on that front. 44% of voters think he has the best chance of beating Obama with Gingrich the next closest at 11%. 40% think he has run the strongest campaign in the state, with the next closest Paul at 15%. And there's a sense of inevitability about him- 47% think he will win the state 13% for Paul with no one else in double digits. Romney's even winning the Tea Party vote 26-20 over Gingrich, a feat he's not managing in too many states.

Paul maintains his Iowa lead

Raleigh, N.C. – The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney.

Paul maintains his lead

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state.  Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.

Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.

Fox News Polling

There's been some speculation in the last few weeks that Glenn Beck might not have his contract with Fox News renewed when it comes up later this year, but our newest national poll finds that would be a big mistake with the network's viewers.

65% of voters who say that they regularly watch Fox News want Beck's show to continue, compared to 16% who think he should be fired and 19% who are unsure. Among all Americans just 44% think Beck's show should still air to 32% who think he should be fired but those lower numbers are because most of the sentiment for getting rid of him comes from folks who don't actually watch the network. 47% of non-Fox News viewers would like to see Beck lose his job to 25% who think he should be kept around.

Here are some other poll findings among people who described themselves as regular viewers of Fox News:

-Barack Obama's approval rating is 27%, with 68% of voters disapproving of him. That's higher than I would have expected.

-Among the most likely Republican Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee leads the way with a +19 favorability spread at 45/26. He's followed by Sarah Palin at +16 (53/37), Mitt Romney at +4 (40/36), and Newt Gingrich at +2 (41/39). Those numbers are particularly problematic for Romney and Gingrich, it's hard to imagine someone taking the GOP Presidential nomination with only narrowly positive favorability numbers among Fox News viewers.

-More popular than any of this quartet with Fox watchers is Scott Walker at a +30 spread (51/21). Going to be interesting to see how much of a push there is from the Republican base for him to shoot for the White House.

Americans support unions over Walker; Sheen for President?

Raleigh, N.C. – The weeks-long national coverage of the battle over collective bargaining in Wisconsin has turned Americans as a whole somewhat narrowly toward the unions and against Governor Scott Walker.  34% see Walker favorably, but 39% unfavorably.  By contrast, unions are seen positively by a 46-40 margin.  And 45% side with the unions over 41% who back Walker.  The two parties are unsurprisingly split, and independents break the tie in favor of the unions.

Gingrich ties Romney without Huckabee or Palin in race

Raleigh, N.C. – When asked who they want to take on President Obama next year, Republican primary voters nationwide could not be less clear—the usual top four are in a statistical tie, each with less than 20% of the vote and just as many undecided.  Mike Huckabee leads with 18%, followed by Mitt Romney’s 17%, Sarah Palin’s 16%, Newt Gingrich’s 14%, Ron Paul’s 9%, Tim Pawlenty’s 5%, Mitch Daniels’ 4%, and Haley Barbour’s 1%.  15% are undecided or favor someone unnamed.  Last month, the candidate order was the same, and the proportions a similar 20-17-15-12-8-4-4.

PBS the most trusted name in news

Raleigh, N.C. – As its affiliated Republican Party’s fortunes rose in the last year, Fox News’ have declined.  In January 2010, PPP showed Fox as by far the news outlet most trusted by American voters.  In this month’s poll, Fox is still relied on by more than some other competitors but is far behind PBS, tested for the first time.  PBS is the only group trusted by a majority and distrusted by fewer than 40%.

A year ago, Fox’s 49-37 (+12) trust-mistrust margin significantly outpaced ABC’s -15, CBS’ -14, NBC’s -9, and CNN’s -2.  In the meantime, all but CNN have boosted their images.  Fox now stands at 42-46 (-4), better only than CBS’ -7 and ABC’ s -8, but worse than CNN’s -3, NBC’s 0, and PBS’ 50-30 (+20).